"A sliver here and a sliver there" – in a few days millions of voters will be taking part in what are, frankly, a pretty weird set of elections. Forget the huge thwack of decisive national victory. Brace for what one former minister described as slivers of votes between five political parties, determining who wins and loses power over town halls in England, and one perch in the Commons. The results will set the political pace for the next few months. And from Friday, Reform could give the two big traditional tribes a problem, and also acquire a potential problem they haven't encountered thus far - a track record to defend. The largest parties are both likely to have a horrible time of it. Labour's wide coalition of voters went pop almost as soon as they moved into No 10. Calm heads in government say it was always going to be thus because of the state of the country when they took over. Sir Keir Starmer even told us on the record he was going to "have to be unpopular" – a curious ambition for a politician! But more candid insiders admit the government "looked very unsure" at the start. "They didn't come in with a big project," one source says, and many voters took a dim view ofministers' freebiesand thedecision on winter fuel allowance. Labour loyalists and spin doctors will emphasise what is true – the elections being fought at council level are "us fighting in the shires", as one of them said. A poor performance in areas that are traditionally Tory, where the party prospered in 2021, won't be a surprise. One cabinet minister says, "they're just not our heartlands, so we just haven't got our normal base". But Labour could also lose mayors and there's no such excuse in what was one of their safest seats,in Runcorn, in the by-election where they could struggle to cling on. After 10 months in power, next week could show Labour how much the reality of government can really hurt. The Conservatives have also been falling over themselves to tell you just saying how awful it's going to be for them after they were, in the words of one senior figure, "absolutely, mercilessly hammered" back in July. The leadership says "nowhere is safe". Some sources even warn in private they could lose all of the town halls they control. The concern behind the very public worry about losing hundreds and hundreds of seats is that "we might not yet actually have hit the bottom", in the words of another veteran. Leader Kemi Badenoch's backers continually say that rebuilding the party is a long-term project, and praise her for managing to draw at least a faint line under the toxic infighting that corroded Conservative ranks in recent years. The broad sense in Westminster is that dreadful results next week won't usher Badenoch to the door. Still, you'd be hard pressed to find a Conservative who'd happily bet their mortgage she'll definitely be in charge by the time of the next election. That's in large part because in the words of one Tory bigwig, "she was working on the basis that it was her versus Starmer but it's not her versus Starmer, it's her versus Starmer and Farage and Davey". This election is pick and mix, with the newest morsels on offer coming from Nigel Farage's Reform UK. They see success in these elections as "two or three more steps up the staircase" towards power, says a senior figure. The other parties report Reform spending big, particularly on online advertising, focusing on national issues like immigration and net zero, and "putting Farage out to draw a crowd", according to a minister. Reform sources scent success. They hope they can nab Runcorn from Labour (although they aren't banking on it), but are more confident of winning mayoral races and of taking plenty of council seats. But anything less than big wins will undermine their exuberant claim that it's credible to see Farage in No 10 one day – and possibly, for that matter, give pollsters red faces again. Sign up for theOff Air with Laura Knewsletter to get Laura Kuenssberg's expert insight and insider stories every week, emailed directly to you. Reform might be the loudest group, but they're not the only one making life hard for the big boys. The Lib Dems reckon with a good night they might control more councils than the Tories this time next week – whether it's Oxfordshire or Wiltshire, Buckinghamshire or other parts of the South West. Leader Sir Ed Davey's been back in his happy place – carrying out ever more ridiculous stunts on the campaign trail, meeting hedgehogs, and even waving around packets of British pork chops on TikTok this time, (I'm not making that up). After July last year, the Lib Dems have a taste for making the Tories miserable, not just for the sake of it, but in the hope of taking out another chunk of their party's traditional infrastructure, in the shape of their county councillors. And party sources suggest their activists are more motivated, and their numbers even increasing, because of US President Donald Trump. Lastly, but not least, the Greens want to continue their steady march into council seats across England. In 2023 they had their best showing in 20 years and took majority control of a council for the first time, adding many more councillors to their number last year. This time round they want to add to the tally in counties like Shropshire, Gloucestershire and Kent, where they already have bums on seats. The Green MPs have made less noise than their other newbie rivals at the other end of the spectrum, Reform. So at a time when enthusiasm for the climate agenda has been fading, or at least evolving in both the big main parties, next week the Green Party will want to show it is a growing force. Any election is also a test of our political parties' campaign machines – the questions different for each this time round. For Labour, is it firing on all cylinders after its July triumph? Frankly, it doesn't seem to be running a campaign at full throttle this time, which given the geography of the contests, shouldn't surprise. For the Conservatives, how much of its once legendary campaigning muscle is left after getting whacked in the summer? Some loyalists are heartened there are still members willing to knock on doors. But a rival campaigner now calls them the "tumbleweed Tories", claiming they're nowhere to be seen on the ground. Both the Lib Dems and the Greens have long been playing effective local ground games, concentrating on building power bases in pockets of the country. The most acute test perhaps then is for Reform, who have proven time and time again they can make a lot of noise nationally, on air, and increasingly, online. In five-party politics, many races may be won with a relatively small share of the vote, by tiny margins, that "sliver here and sliver there". These elections are likely to result in real-life evidence of a political idea that's all the rage, that there's "fragmentation" among the public, the traditional voting blocs are no more. Excitable columns are already being penned in anticipation, proclaiming that two-party politics is dead. The splitting of the vote among so many groups also seems likely to leave more councils without any a clear majority. In that case, they go into what's known as "no overall control", so the biggest party needs votes from the others to get their way. It's likely that will pose the Conservatives with a tricky real-life question after many weeks of troublesome hypothetical arguments: will they, or won't they, work with their arch rivals Reform UK on the ground? Crucially, if Reform makes its expected big advances, it will for the first time have responsibility for decisions that affect people's lives. That will be a big achievement. Both senior Labour and Conservative sources agree privately, as one said, "the biggest thing to come out of Thursday night is that Reform will have a record to defend". Next week the smaller parties are on track to have plenty to celebrate. If the General Election was branded the "ABC election – Anyone But the Conservatives", maybe next week's ballots will be branded the "ABB election – Anyone But the Big parties". BBC InDepthis the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. 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Will this be the 'anyone but the big parties' local election?
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Local Elections Set to Challenge Dominance of Major Political Parties in England"
Bbc News
6.6
TruthLens AI Summary
As millions prepare to vote in upcoming local elections across England, the political landscape appears more fragmented than ever, with five parties competing for influence in what has been termed a potential 'Anyone But the Big Parties' election. Recent commentary from former government officials suggests that the results will not yield the decisive victories seen in national elections, but rather a series of closely contested races that could reshape local governance. The Labour Party, while hoping to hold onto key strongholds, is facing challenges in traditionally Tory areas, raising concerns about their ability to retain power in critical regions like Runcorn. Labour's leadership acknowledges the difficulties of governing amidst public dissatisfaction, especially after facing scrutiny over economic policies and perceived indecision. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party is bracing for significant losses after experiencing a major setback in previous elections, with insiders expressing fears that they may lose control of multiple town halls, indicating that their leadership under Kemi Badenoch is under scrutiny as the party navigates a long-term rebuilding process amidst internal turmoil.
The emergence of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, adds another layer of complexity to the elections. Reform is aggressively targeting council seats and mayoral positions while also focusing on prominent national issues like immigration. Their success could signal a shift in voter preferences and further fragment the traditional two-party system. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are also vying for increased representation, with the former aiming to capitalize on Conservative weaknesses and the latter continuing their steady growth in local governance. As the elections approach, the performance of these smaller parties could result in councils lacking a clear majority, potentially leading to complicated coalition negotiations. This election cycle not only tests the individual parties' campaign strategies but also reflects a broader trend of political fragmentation, challenging the long-held dominance of the major parties and calling into question the future of two-party politics in the UK.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article provides an analysis of the upcoming local elections in England, which are characterized by fragmented voting patterns among multiple parties rather than a clear victory for the traditional big parties. This context sets the stage for understanding the political landscape and possible implications following the elections.
Political Context and Implications
The article highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Labour Party's performance as they navigate their first ten months in power. The reference to Labour's coalition of voters "going pop" suggests a potential disillusionment among their base. The mention of Sir Keir Starmer's admission that he would have to be "unpopular" raises questions about the government's strategy and its effectiveness in addressing pressing issues, which could further alienate voters.
Voter Sentiment and Electoral Dynamics
The narrative points to a potential shift away from the traditional two-party system as smaller parties like Reform gain traction. This could signal a growing appetite among voters for alternatives to the established parties, reflecting broader dissatisfaction with the current political climate. The idea of "slivers of votes" indicates a highly competitive electoral environment where every vote counts, making it essential for parties to appeal to a wider demographic.
Media Influence and Public Perception
The language used in the article suggests a critical stance towards both major parties, which may influence public perception. By emphasizing potential failures and uncertainties, the article could be steering public sentiment towards skepticism about the current government's capabilities. This framing might serve to rally support for smaller parties or encourage voters to consider alternatives.
Hidden Agendas and Political Maneuvering
While the article appears to critique the major parties, it may also be diverting attention from underlying issues that could be detrimental to the smaller parties if they gain power. The focus on Labour's struggles could be a strategic move to bolster the image of Reform or other emerging parties while downplaying any potential shortcomings of these alternatives.
Manipulative Elements and Trustworthiness
The article contains elements that could be seen as manipulative, particularly in its framing of Labour's performance and the portrayal of the political landscape. The choice of words like "horrible time" and "looked very unsure" creates a negative narrative that could bias readers against Labour. Overall, while the article provides relevant information about the electoral situation, its tone and focus suggest a certain level of bias, impacting its overall reliability.
The potential outcomes of these elections are significant. A poor showing for Labour could lead to further instability within the party, while success for smaller parties might reshape the political landscape in the UK. The article serves to inform readers about these dynamics, but it also influences how they perceive the political situation and the choices available to them.