The chief executive of one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence labs is warning that the technology could cause a dramatic spike in unemployment in the very near future. He says policymakers and corporate leaders aren’t ready for it. “AI is starting to get better than humans at almost all intellectual tasks, and we’re going to collectively, as a society, grapple with it,” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told CNN’s Anderson Cooper in an interview on Thursday. “AI is going to get better at what everyone does, including what I do, including what other CEOs do.” The full conversation is set to air on CNN at 8 p.m. ET. Amodei believes the AI tools that Anthropic and other companies are racing to build could eliminate half of entry-level, white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to as much as 20% in the next one to five years, he told Axios on Wednesday. That could mean the US unemployment rate growing fivefold in just a few years; the last time it neared that rate was briefly at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s not the first dire warning about how rapidly advancing AI could upend the economy in the coming years. Academics and economists have also cautioned that AI could replace some jobs or tasks in the coming years, with varying degrees of seriousness. Earlier this year, a World Economic Forum survey showed that 41% of employers plan to downsize their workforce because of AI automation by 2030. But Amodei’s prediction is notable because it’s coming from one of the industry’s top leaders and because of the scale of disruption it foretells. It also comes as Anthropic is now selling AI technology on the promise that it can work nearly the length of a typical human workday. The historical narrative about how tech advancement works is that technology would automate lower-paying, lower-skilled jobs, and the displaced human workers can be trained to take more lucrative positions. However, if Amodei is correct, AI could wipe out more specialized white-collar roles that may have required years of expensive training and education — and those workers may not be so easily retrained for equal or higher-paying jobs. Amodei suggested that lawmakers may even need to consider levying a tax on AI companies. “If AI creates huge total wealth, a lot of that will, by default, go to the AI companies and less to ordinary people,” he said. “So, you know, it’s definitely not in my economic interest to say that, but I think this is something we should consider and I think it shouldn’t be a partisan thing.” ‘Faster, broader, harder to adapt to’ Researchers and economists have forecast that professionals from paralegals and payroll clerks to financial advisers and coders could see their jobs dramatically change – if not eliminated entirely – in the coming years thanks to AI. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said last month that he expects AI to write half the company’s code within the next year; Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said as much as 30% of his company’s code is currently being written by AI. Amodei told CNN that Anthropic tracks how many people say they use its AI models to augment human jobs versus to entirely automate human jobs. Currently, he said, it’s about 60% of people using AI for augmentation and 40% for automation, but that the latter is growing. Last week, the company released a new AI model that it says can work independently for almost seven hours in a row, taking on more complex tasks with less human oversight. Amodei says most people don’t realize just how quickly AI is advancing, but he advises “ordinary citizens” to “learn to use AI.” “People have adapted to past technological changes,” Amodei said. “But everyone I’ve talked to has said this technological change looks different, it looks faster, it looks harder to adapt to, it’s broader. The pace of progress keeps catching people off guard.” Estimates about just how quickly AI models are improving vary widely. And some skeptics have predicted that as big AI companies run out of high-quality, publicly available data to train their models on, after having already gobbled up much of the internet, the rate of change in the industry may slow. Some who study the technology also say it’s more likely that AI will automate certain tasks, rather than entire jobs, giving human workers more time to do complex tasks that computers aren’t good at yet. But regardless of where they fall on the prediction scale, most experts agree that it is time for the world to start planning for the economic impacts of AI. “People sometimes comfort themselves (by) saying, ‘Oh, but the economy always creates new jobs,’” University of Virginia business and economics professor Anton Korinek said in an email. “That’s true historically, but unlike in the past, intelligent machines will be able to do the new jobs as well, and probably learn them faster than us humans.” Amodei said he also believes that AI will have positive impacts, such as curing disease. “I wouldn’t be building this technology if I didn’t think that it could make the world better,” he said. For the CEO, making this warning now could serve, in some ways, to boost his reputation as a responsible leader in the space. The top AI labs are competing not only to have the most powerful models, but also be perceived as the most trustworthy stewards of the tech transformation, amid growing questions from lawmakers and the public about the technology’s efficacy and implications. “Amodei’s message is not just about warning the public. It’s part truth-telling, part reputation management, part market positioning, and part policy influence,” tech futurist and Futuremade CEO Tracey Follows told CNN in an email. “If he makes the claim that this will cause 20% unemployment over the next five years, and no-one stops or impedes the ongoing development of this model … then Anthropic cannot be to blame in the future — they warned people.” Amodei told Cooper that he’s “raising the alarm” because other AI leaders “haven’t as much and I think someone needs to say it and to be clear.” “I don’t think we can stop this bus,” Amodei said. “From the position that I’m in, I can maybe hope to do a little to steer the technology in a direction where we become aware of the harms, we address the harms, and we’re still able to achieve the benefits.”
Why this leading AI CEO is warning the tech could cause mass unemployment
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Anthropic CEO warns AI could lead to significant unemployment increase"
CNN
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TruthLens AI Summary
Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, a leading AI lab, has issued a stark warning about the potential for artificial intelligence to drastically increase unemployment rates in the near future. In a recent interview, he highlighted that AI is advancing rapidly and is beginning to outperform humans in many intellectual tasks. Amodei predicts that within the next one to five years, AI could lead to the elimination of half of entry-level white-collar jobs, potentially causing unemployment rates to spike as high as 20%. This alarming forecast draws attention not only because it originates from a top industry leader but also due to the unprecedented scale of disruption it suggests. Historical patterns of technological advancement typically indicate that lower-skilled jobs would be automated first, allowing displaced workers to transition into higher-paying roles. However, Amodei argues that AI's capabilities may extend to more specialized positions, making retraining for equally lucrative opportunities more challenging for affected workers.
Furthermore, Amodei advocates for policymakers to consider implementing a tax on AI companies to ensure that the wealth generated by AI does not disproportionately benefit a small number of corporations at the expense of the broader workforce. He acknowledges that while AI could bring about positive changes, such as advancements in healthcare, the potential for job displacement is significant and warrants serious consideration. The CEO's warnings come amid a growing consensus among economists and researchers that a wide range of professions, from financial advisors to programmers, could be fundamentally altered or rendered obsolete by AI technology. While some experts remain skeptical and suggest that AI may primarily automate specific tasks rather than entire jobs, Amodei emphasizes the urgency of planning for the economic repercussions of AI, as the pace of technological change accelerates. He urges ordinary citizens to adapt and learn to use AI tools, noting that the current technological shift is faster and more complex than previous changes. Amodei's message serves not only as a cautionary tale about the potential risks of AI but also as a call to action for responsible leadership and proactive policy-making in the face of unprecedented technological advancements.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article presents a significant warning from Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, regarding the potential impact of artificial intelligence on employment. The insights shared reflect a growing concern about how rapidly evolving AI technologies could lead to widespread job displacement, particularly in white-collar sectors. This analysis will explore the implications of Amodei's statements, the societal perceptions they may shape, and the broader context within which this news is situated.
Implications of AI on Employment
Amodei's claim that AI could eliminate a considerable portion of entry-level jobs highlights a shift in how technology interacts with the workforce. Traditionally, technological advancement has been associated with the automation of lower-skilled jobs, allowing displaced workers to transition into higher-paying roles. However, the prediction that AI could also impact more specialized positions indicates a potential upheaval in job markets that many policymakers and corporate leaders may not be prepared for.
Public Sentiment and Perception
There is a palpable fear that AI could exacerbate unemployment rates significantly, as suggested by Amodei's projection of a potential 20% unemployment rate in the coming years. By broadcasting these warnings, the article seeks to create an awareness of the challenges posed by AI, potentially inciting discussions among policymakers, business leaders, and the public about the need for proactive measures to address this looming crisis.
Hidden Narratives and Broader Context
While the article sheds light on the potential negative impacts of AI, it may also obscure the ongoing discussions around the benefits of AI technologies, such as increased efficiency and innovation. Emphasizing the threat of mass unemployment could distract from the positive contributions that AI might offer, such as improved productivity and the creation of new job categories that have yet to be defined.
Comparative Analysis with Other Reports
Amodei's warnings align with other recent studies, such as the World Economic Forum survey indicating that a significant portion of employers plan to reduce their workforce due to AI. This consistency across multiple sources reinforces the credibility of the concerns raised, indicating a collective acknowledgment of the potential disruptions caused by AI.
Potential Societal and Economic Scenarios
The repercussions of such a dramatic increase in unemployment could be far-reaching, influencing consumer spending, economic growth, and societal stability. If the predictions hold true, the resulting economic strain could lead to increased social unrest and demand for government intervention in the form of job retraining programs or universal basic income initiatives.
Target Audiences and Support Bases
The article primarily targets stakeholders in the tech industry, policymakers, and the general public concerned about job security in an increasingly automated world. By articulating the challenges faced, it aims to resonate particularly with workers in white-collar jobs who may feel threatened by AI advancements.
Market Impacts and Financial Considerations
The implications of these warnings extend to the stock market and global economy, potentially affecting tech companies that are heavily investing in AI. Companies like Anthropic and others in the AI sector may see fluctuations in their stock prices based on public perception and regulatory responses to the threat of mass unemployment.
Geopolitical Relevance
In the context of global power dynamics, the discussion around AI and employment has significant implications. Countries that successfully navigate the challenges posed by AI could emerge as leaders in the tech industry, while those that fail to adapt may face economic decline.
Role of AI in News Generation
It is plausible that AI technologies could assist in crafting such articles, especially in summarizing data or predicting trends based on existing information. However, the human element in interpreting the emotional and social ramifications of AI is irreplaceable in creating a nuanced narrative.
Manipulative Elements in the Article
While the article presents valid concerns, it may inadvertently instigate panic about AI's capabilities. The language used emphasizes fears of unemployment without equally discussing potential solutions or positive outcomes. By focusing on the negative aspects, it could be seen as a form of manipulation that prioritizes sensationalism over balanced reporting.
In summary, the article reflects a growing urgency to address the implications of AI on the workforce. While it draws attention to critical issues, it may also perpetuate a narrative of fear that could overshadow potential positive developments in the field.