The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election is a surprise win for Labour - giving the party a much-needed boost with less than a year until a full Scottish Parliament vote. But the other big winner was Reform UK who finished third behind the SNP. They recorded their best ever parliamentary election result in Scotland - with a 26% share of the vote. The party's deputy leader Richard Tice said the result was a "massive boost" going into the May 2026 vote. If John Swinney is to remain as Scotland's first minister, it seems he cannot rely on presenting the SNP as the only alternative to Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Both the SNP and Labour lost vote share in this by-election but the punishment for the SNP, in power at Holyrood for the last 18 years, was far greater. They repeatedly framed this contest as a two horse race between them and Reform UK. Their billboards in the constituency still make that claim. It was obviously wrong. In reality, this was a three horse race that Labour won by a nose to take the seat from the SNP - which now has big questions to ask itself about its strategy for 2026. If Reform can do half as well in the contest next May, they can expect to have their first MSPs elected and gain a significant foothold at Holyrood. That would break the traditional consensus that Scotland needs more immigration to fill job vacancies and offset the effects of an ageing population. The established parties acknowledge that concerns about immigration featured in this by-election in a way they have not before. The biggest losers in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse are the Conservatives who finished a distant fourth and appear to be struggling to counter the rise of Reform. Defeat here is a significant setback for the Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay and offers no encouragement to Kemi Badenoch and the UK party. This is also not a victory that Sir Keir Starmer can really claim as his own. Labour said in recent days that they had identified enough support to beat the SNP and it seems a successful ground operation got those voters to turnout. But Starmer's popularity in Scotland has plummeted since he swept to power last summer, heavily defeating the SNP. Decisions like cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners seem to have harmed his standing and that policy is to be revised, perhaps as early as next week. The prime minister made no appearance in the campaign despite announcing the strategic defence review in Glasgow on Monday. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has acknowledged public discontent with the UK Labour government. He said that voters had made clear their frustrations and that Sir Keir Starmer must now go further and faster in delivering the economic change he promised at the general election. This by-election outcome alters the prevailing narrative in Scottish politics. After defeating the SNP across much of the central belt of Scotland last summer, Labour has lost ground. National opinion polling has them heavily trailing the SNP in Holyrood voting intentions. This by-election result runs counter to that trend, albeit that it is a localised win on a low turnout. Voters consistently told anyone who would listen that they were fed up with politicians of all stripes, not least those in power at Holyrood and Westminster. Before next May's election, John Swinney hopes to be able to demonstrate improvements in public services like the NHS. And labour will argue the nationalists have already had too long and that a change of government is required. This by-election has restored some confidence in Scottish Labour and reminded the SNP that they can take nothing for granted. But it has put all parties on notice that Reform UK could - for the first time - be a significant force in Scottish politics.
Why Reform was the other big winner in the Hamilton by-election
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Labour Wins Hamilton By-election as Reform UK Achieves Historic Vote Share"
Bbc News
7.3
TruthLens AI Summary
The recent by-election for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse has yielded a surprising victory for the Labour Party, marking a significant boost for them as they approach a full Scottish Parliament vote in less than a year. Labour's win, however, is not the only highlight of this election. Reform UK has emerged as a notable contender, finishing third with their best-ever parliamentary election result in Scotland at a remarkable 26% share of the vote. Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, characterized this result as a 'massive boost' ahead of the May 2026 vote. This outcome raises critical questions for John Swinney, Scotland's first minister, suggesting that he cannot solely rely on the SNP being perceived as the only alternative to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Both the SNP and Labour experienced a decline in vote share during this election, but the SNP suffered the more significant setback, given their long-standing governance in Holyrood for the past 18 years. Their campaign framed the contest as a two-horse race, yet the reality was quite different, with Labour narrowly winning and leaving the SNP to reassess its strategies for the upcoming elections.
This by-election marks a turning point in Scottish politics, as it challenges the prevailing narrative that has seen Labour lose traction since their previous successes in the central belt last summer. Despite Labour's localized win, national polling indicates they are still trailing the SNP in Holyrood voting intentions. Voter sentiment expressed frustration with politicians across the board, particularly those in power at both Holyrood and Westminster. The Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, has acknowledged the public's discontent with the UK Labour government and emphasized the need for Sir Keir Starmer to accelerate promised economic changes. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, who finished a distant fourth, face a significant setback, highlighting their struggle against the rising influence of Reform UK. The results of this by-election serve as a reminder to all parties: Reform UK could potentially emerge as a substantial force in Scottish politics, particularly if they manage to replicate their success in future elections, fundamentally altering the political landscape in Scotland.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article provides an overview of the recent by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, highlighting the unexpected success of Labour and the significant rise of Reform UK. This political analysis reflects the changing dynamics within Scottish politics, especially as the next Scottish Parliament elections loom closer.
Political Implications
The result indicates a potential shift in voter preferences, with Labour gaining momentum and Reform UK emerging as a notable contender. The article suggests that the SNP's long-standing dominance may be challenged as they lost a significant share of the vote. The mention of Reform UK's 26% vote share signals a growing discontent with traditional parties among the electorate, particularly on issues like immigration that have become more prominent in public discourse.
Media Framing and Public Perception
By framing the by-election as a three-horse race rather than a simple contest between Labour and the SNP, the article challenges the narrative that has been pushed by the SNP. This could influence public perception, making voters reconsider their allegiance to established parties. The portrayal of Reform UK as a legitimate alternative to the SNP and Labour may also resonate with constituents who feel their views, particularly on immigration, are not being adequately represented.
Concerns About Manipulation
The language used in the article seeks to position Reform UK positively while painting the SNP as a party in crisis. While the article presents factual results, the emphasis on Reform UK’s performance could be perceived as an attempt to manipulate public sentiment towards favoring this party at the expense of the SNP. Such framing might lead to a skewed interpretation of the broader political landscape, potentially neglecting other critical issues impacting voters.
Voter Dynamics and Societal Impact
The article implies that if Reform UK continues to gain traction, it could disrupt the traditional political consensus in Scotland regarding immigration and other policies. This shift could have broader societal implications, influencing debates on immigration policy and the future governance of Scotland. The potential election of MSPs from Reform UK could signify a more polarized political environment.
Future Scenarios
The results of this by-election may lead to increased competition among parties, altering campaign strategies and voter engagement ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections. The Conservatives' poor performance indicates challenges in countering Reform UK's rise, which could further fragment the right-wing vote in Scotland and complicate the Tories' efforts to regain support.
Community Support and Target Audience
Reform UK appears to be appealing to communities disillusioned with the current political climate, specifically those concerned about immigration and governance. The party's messaging resonates particularly with voters seeking alternatives to mainstream parties, suggesting a shift in the political landscape towards more populist sentiments.
Market Impact
While the article does not directly address financial markets, the political developments in Scotland could influence investor sentiment in sectors affected by immigration policies and governance stability. Companies that rely on a stable workforce may be particularly sensitive to shifts in immigration policy influenced by the growing support for Reform UK.
Global Context
This political scenario is relevant within a broader context where populist movements are gaining momentum globally. The rise of parties like Reform UK may reflect a wider trend of discontent with mainstream politics, echoing sentiments seen in other countries.
The article presents a well-rounded view of the recent political developments in Scotland, with a focus on the implications for future elections and party dynamics. However, the framing and emphasis on Reform UK could suggest an agenda to shift public perception in favor of rising political forces.