What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries for New Jersey governor

New Jersey voters will select their nominees for governor on Tuesday, testing the direction of the Democratic and Republican parties in a state that shifted towards President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The Republican primary has coalesced around Jack Ciattarelli, who led the race even before he secured Trump’s endorsement last month. The Democratic side has a crowded slate of moderate and progressive candidates, though some political observers see Rep. Mikie Sherrill as a leader of the field. Trump, a part-time summer resident of the Garden State, has played a central role in both party primaries. Several Republican candidates openly lobbied for his support while Democrats portrayed themselves as fighters against him. Both eventual nominees will have to contend with the Trump factor in the general election. Though he lost New Jersey by six points to former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, Trump made significant gains in the state, reducing his margin of defeat by 10 points compared to 2020. The candidates are running to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, whose party is facing historical crosscurrents. Democrats have not won the governor’s seat three terms in a row in more than 60 years. Working in the party’s favor: In every race for New Jersey governor since 1989 – except for 2021 – the party that loses the presidential election the year before rebounds to win in the Garden State. New Jersey is one of two states, along with Virginia, holding elections for governor this year. Virginia does not have a competitive primary for governor, with a matchup already set between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Here’s what to watch on Tuesday night: What type of Democrat emerges? Who New Jersey Democrats choose will be telling. Each of the six candidates is emphasizing different approaches on issues like housing, cost of living and immigration. Some political observers view Sherrill, who has earned the most county party endorsements, as the slight favorite heading into Tuesday. A former Navy helicopter pilot, Sherrill flipped a long-held GOP district in northern New Jersey in 2018, helping Democrats win back the House in Trump’s first term. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka has clashed with the Trump administration over immigration, including his high-profile arrest by ICE agents outside a federal detention center last month. Leader of the state’s largest city, Baraka is running as an unapologetic progressive, saying at a rally on Sunday that “we cannot do the conventional thing because these are not conventional times.” Other candidates include Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, a progressive who has billed himself as an anti-establishment candidate; Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a moderate who made addressing high costs the centerpiece of his campaign; Steve Spiller, former mayor of Montclair and president of the New Jersey Education Association; and Steve Sweeney, a moderate former state senator and ironworker who is the only candidate hailing from the southern part of the state. What is Trump’s standing in New Jersey? The alliance between Trump and Ciattarelli, one of five Republicans running for governor, was not always expected. Ciattarelli once described Trump as a “charlatan” and kept the president at arm’s length during his last run for governor in 2021, when he lost to Murphy by only three points. But he openly sought Trump’s endorsement this time as Trump tightened his hold on the GOP. New Jersey saw the second-largest shift towards Trump in November’s presidential contest. Ciattarelli hopes to tap into Trump’s support network heading into November’s election, but questions remain about how well GOP candidates can do without Trump on the ballot. Conservative radio talk show host Bill Spadea also pushed for Trump’s support, while state senator Sen. Jon Bramnick kept Trump at a distance. Justin Barbera, a business owner in Burlington County, and former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac are also on the GOP ballot. What does the end of the ‘county line’ mean? This is the first New Jersey governor’s race since the end of the so-called “county line” ballot, a ballot structure that favored party-backed candidates. The design allowed county party leaders to give preferential placement on ballots to their endorsed primary candidates. The names of party-backed candidates would appear in a single, prominent column. Those who were not part of the line had their names scattered across the ballot in what was commonly referred to as “Ballot Siberia.” A federal judge struck down the practice last year following a challenge by then-Rep. Andy Kim as he was running for Senate. Kim, who won his race, argued the practice was “averse to the pursuit of democracy.” The end of the county line has led to one of the more competitive Democratic primaries in the state in years. Sherrill has earned the most county party endorsements and could still benefit from their organizing power. Which big spender wins? The race has shattered spending records already. The primaries have seen $85 million in ad spending, making the contest the most expensive governor’s race in New Jersey history, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Most of that spending - $75 million – has come on the Democratic side from candidates and outside groups. At $8.8 million, Fulop led the candidates in ad spending since the start of the year. A host of well-funded outside groups are pushing the totals even higher, including the pro-Gottheimer group “Affordable New Jersey” ($14.8 million), the pro-Fulop group “Coalition for Progress” ($8.1 million), and the pro-Sherrill group “One Giant Leap PAC” ($5.9 million). Meanwhile, Spiller has outsourced nearly his entire campaign operation to an outside group, “Working New Jersey,” aligned with his union, which has spent more than $12 million on advertisements supporting his campaign, and which has reported spending nearly $40 million total backing his bid.