While there have been no major disruptions to the global oil supply so far, the attacks on Iran – by Israel and then the US – have rattled investors, sendingoil futures soaringby around 10%, among fears Iran could retaliate by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
From the perspective of the global economy, there are few places as strategically important. The waterway, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. It’s the only way to ship crude from the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. Iran controls its northern side.
About 20 million barrels of oil, about one-fifth of daily global production, flow through the strait every day, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), whichcalledthe channel a “critical oil chokepoint.”
On Sunday evening, followingUS airstrikeson three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Brent crude, the global benchmark, briefly surged above $80 per barrel, according to Refinitiv data, the first time that’s happened since January. Before the conflict, prices had largely hovered between $60 and $75 a barrel since August 2024.
Brent last traded at $78.2 per barrel, while WTI, the US benchmark, was at $75.06.
Whether oil prices will climb further now depends on Iran’s response. Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at energy investment firm Tortoise Capital,told CNNthat a potential disruption to the Iran-controlled sea route would cause oil prices to surge toward $100 per barrel.
A functioning Strait of Hormuz is “absolutely essential” to the health of the global economy, he said.
A prominent adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already called for the closure of the Strait.
“Following America’s attack on the Fordow nuclear installation, it is now our turn,” warned Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who has previously identified himself as a “representative” for Khamenei.
Geographic leverage over global shipping gives Iran the “capacity to cause a shock in oil markets, drive up oil prices, drive inflation, collapse Trump’s economic agenda,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran expert and editor of the Amwaj news outlet, told CNN.
When it comes to moving oil, the Strait is actually much narrower than its 21-mile official width. The navigable shipping lanes for massive supertankers are only abouttwo miles widein each direction, requiring vessels to pass through both Iranian and Omani territorial waters.
But Vandana Hari, founder and CEO of Vanda Insights, which tracks energy markets, sees Iran’s blocking of the Strait as a “remote tail risk.” The presence of a beefed-up US naval fleet in the region is both a deterrent and a response tool, she said.
“Iran has a lot to lose and very little, if anything, to gain by attempting to close the Strait,” Hari said. “Iran cannot afford to turn its oil-producing neighbors, who have been neutral or even sympathetic towards the Islamic Republic as it faced Israeli and US attacks, into enemies, any more than trigger the ire of its main crude market, China.”
A closure of the Strait would be particularly detrimental to China and otherAsian economies which rely on the crude oil and natural gas shipped through the waterway. The EIAestimatesthat 84% of the crude oil and 83% of the liquefied natural gas that moved through the Strait of Hormuz last year went to Asian markets.
China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, sourced 5.4 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter this year, while India and South Korea imported 2.1 million and 1.7 million barrels per day, respectively, according to the EIA’s estimates. In comparison, the US and Europe imported just 400,000 and 500,000 barrels per day, respectively, in the same period, according to the EIA.
On Sunday, India’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri sought to reassure jittery investors onXthat the country has “diversified” its oil supplies in the past few years.
On Sunday, India’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said onXthat the country has “diversified” its oil supplies in the past few years.
“A large volume of our supplies do not come through the Strait of Hormuz now. Our Oil Marketing Companies have supplies of several weeks and continue to receive energy supplies from several routes,” he said. “We will take all necessary steps to ensure stability of supplies of fuel to our citizens.”