When it comes to reducing UK immigration, there have been plenty of promises and targets from successive governments over the last 15 years, but the numbers remain high. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now pledging to "take back control of our borders", promising tighter rules to bring down the numbers "significantly". BBC Verify examines the measures set out by the government and the challenges ahead. Migration levels have hit "unprecedented levels" in recent years,according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Net migration to the UK - total permanent arrivals minus total permanent departures - reached a record 906,000 in the year ending in June 2023 and then fell to 728,000 in the year ending in June 2024. The continued high levels persist, despite previous government efforts to bring the numbers down. For example, in 2010 the Conservatives pledged to reduce net migration to the "tens of thousands". Annual net migration is expected to come down to about 315,000 by the end of the Parliament. That's according to the central forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - the independent body that scrutinises the public finances. That estimate, however, would still be higher than most years in the past decade. The vast majority of migrants come to the UK for study or work. And many of the work visas have been for people coming to do jobs in health and social care. However, applications for health and social care visas have come down sharply in the past two years after the rules were tightened by the last Conservative government and this decline will ultimately feed into the official net migration statistics in the coming years. There's been much discussion about the link between immigration and economic growth. TheWhite Paper- which sets out the government's plan - says the UK economy needs to wean itself off a reliance on cheap overseas labour. While taking questions from journalists, the prime minister claimed the idea immigration leads to higher economic growth "doesn't hold". Economists do not agree about the exact impact that simply adding more people to an economy has on growth and prosperity. New arrivals might increase the country's overall level of economic activity - measured by GDP. But on a per-person basis, GDP could be stagnant or falling. Also a larger population puts more pressure on demand for public services and housing. However, if immigrants are filling important gaps in the labour market which would otherwise not be filled - especially jobs that require specific skills - then economists generally think that immigrants can boost GDP per head and general prosperity. TheOBR saysthat increased migration generally increases economic growth but "the size of this impact and the effect on per person living standards is highly uncertain". The OBR's point about growth per person is important because the government has made growth of this measure a key priority. Growth per personfell in 2023 and was flat in 2024. There are gaps in our labour market which have been substantially filled by migrants in recent years, most notably social care. And there were still estimated to be131,000 vacant postsin adult social care in England in 2023. Care providers argue stopping them recruiting from overseas will likely make that gap bigger. Non-immigrants could theoretically fill many of these posts and working-age people who are economically inactive could potentially be deployed in this sector if they could be encouraged and helped into work. Yet the main barrier to recruitment in social care has been the level of pay, which is currently too low to attract sufficient numbers of British workers. Amy Clark, commercial director of a Cornwall care home chain, told the BBC that the measures could cause challenges because "recruiting locally is very, very difficult". The government could increase the levels of pay in social care, but that would leave them under pressure to increase grants to local authorities and potentially raise taxes to fund it. Problems with social care recruitment were also highlighted by Madeleine Sumption, deputy chair of the Migration Advisory Committee. "We've seen widespread reports of exploitation, people coming in who are quite vulnerable earning very low wages. "So I am not surprised the government has chosen to close overseas recruitment because it's caused them so much difficulty," she said. Overseas students have been a major contributor to levels of net migration in recent years. But they are also a significant source of funding for UK universities. A large reduction in overseas students numbers would undermine the finances of many universities and a number are already in severe financial difficulties. The government wants to monitor more closely how universities recruit international students. It is also proposing a limit on the time international students can remain in the UK after graduating. Foreign students would only have 18 months to look for a job, down from 2-3 years previously. Universities UK - which represents 141 universities - has urged the government "to think carefully" about the impact of its measures. If overseas student numbers did fall, the government could make up the shortfall in universities' revenue by increasing central government grants but, again, that could require an increase in taxes. Alternatively, it could further increase domestic students' tuition fees, although that would also be contentious. The government says it still wants to attract high-skilled individuals "who play by the rules and contribute to the economy". However, the PM also stressed that some parts of the economy are "addicted" to importing cheap labour, rather than investing in training UK workers. As an example, Sir Keir said the number of engineering apprenticeships had fallen in recent years, while visas for overseas workers in this area had gone up. Figures in the government's new immigration plan show that the number of UK work visas issued for engineering professionals rose from 3,427 in 2021 to 5,495 in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of new apprenticeships in engineering in England fell from 26,970 in 2021-22 to 18,520 in 2024-25. But if the government wants many more home-trained engineers that will likely come with a cost in terms of a higher training budget. While that investment could come partly from firms, it could also mean more public spending and possibly tax rises. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, total public spending on adult education and skills hasfallen by 24% in real terms since 2010. Reacting to the government's proposals, Make UK - which represents manufacturers - said firms are being forced to recruit overseas staff because domestic skills training is "fundamentally flawed". "Without access to skilled labour in the UK, manufacturers cannot take advantage of the opportunities presented by the recent trade agreements with India and the US and deliver the growth we all want to see and the economy needs", said CEO Stephen Phipson. Additional reporting by Anthony Reuben What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
What are the challenges facing the government's immigration plan?
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"UK Government Faces Challenges in Implementing Immigration Reform"
Bbc News
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TruthLens AI Summary
The UK government's immigration strategy faces significant challenges as it attempts to manage unprecedented levels of net migration. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to regain control of the country's borders, aiming to implement tighter immigration rules that would significantly reduce the current figures. Recent statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate that net migration peaked at 906,000 for the year ending June 2023 before decreasing to 728,000 by June 2024. Despite previous government commitments to lower net migration to tens of thousands, the latest forecasts suggest that even a target of 315,000 by the end of the Parliament would still exceed historical averages. The majority of these migrants arrive for work or study, with a notable decline in health and social care visas due to tightened regulations. This decline is expected to impact future migration statistics, raising concerns about labor shortages in critical sectors such as social care, where there are currently over 130,000 vacancies in England alone.
The government's immigration plan also emphasizes the need to reduce reliance on foreign labor, particularly in sectors like engineering, where domestic apprenticeship numbers have fallen while work visas have increased. The Migration Advisory Committee has pointed out that the closure of overseas recruitment may exacerbate existing recruitment challenges in social care, where low pay has deterred local workers. Additionally, the government is considering limiting the time international students can remain in the UK post-graduation, which could have serious financial implications for universities already struggling with funding. The balance between attracting high-skilled migrants and investing in local workforce training remains precarious, as economists debate the impact of migration on economic growth. The government’s push to improve domestic skills training may necessitate increased public spending, which could, in turn, lead to tax increases. Overall, the path forward for the UK's immigration policy is fraught with complexities, as it seeks to address both economic needs and public sentiment regarding immigration.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article provides a detailed overview of the challenges facing the UK government's immigration plan, emphasizing the ongoing struggle to control immigration numbers despite previous promises. The piece highlights the record levels of net migration and the government's intention to reduce these figures significantly, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Government Promises vs. Reality
Over the past 15 years, various UK governments have made commitments to reduce immigration, yet the net migration figures have remained high, peaking at 906,000 in June 2023. The article indicates a decline to 728,000 by June 2024, but this figure is still above historical averages. The continuous high immigration rates challenge the credibility of government pledges and raise questions about their effectiveness.
Economic Implications of Immigration
The article discusses the relationship between immigration and economic growth. It highlights the government's stance that the UK economy must move away from dependence on cheap foreign labor. This reflects a significant shift in policy, aiming to encourage domestic workforce development while addressing the rising immigration levels.
Concerns About Policy Effectiveness
Tighter visa regulations for health and social care workers have led to a decline in applications for these visas, which will impact future net migration statistics. This raises concerns about the potential consequences for essential services in the UK, particularly in health care, where demand for workers is high.
Public Perception and Political Strategy
The narrative seems to aim at shaping public perception regarding immigration, possibly to rally support for stricter immigration controls. By framing the immigration issue as a matter of national control and economic sustainability, the government may be attempting to consolidate its political base, particularly among those concerned about immigration's impact on jobs and public services.
Potential Manipulative Elements
The article's focus on high immigration numbers and the government's efforts to reduce them could be seen as an attempt to manipulate public sentiment by highlighting perceived failures of past administrations. The language used might evoke a sense of urgency or crisis regarding immigration, influencing how the audience perceives the government's actions.
Trustworthiness of Information
While the article presents factual data from official sources like the Office for National Statistics and the Office for Budget Responsibility, the framing of the information could lead to selective interpretation. The emphasis on challenges and the government's response suggests a narrative that may not fully encompass the complexities of immigration's role in society and the economy.
Audience Targeting
This article is likely aimed at audiences concerned with immigration policies, including voters who prioritize national security, economic stability, and public service sustainability. The government may be seeking to resonate with these groups to bolster support for its immigration agenda.
Market Impact Considerations
The implications of this immigration narrative could extend to market sentiments, particularly in sectors reliant on labor. Companies in healthcare and social services might react to potential labor shortages. The article does not delve into specific stocks but hints that sectors dependent on immigration could be affected by policy changes.
Geopolitical Context
In the broader context, the immigration debate reflects ongoing global trends regarding migration, labor markets, and national sovereignty. The UK's challenges are part of a larger narrative concerning how countries manage immigration in an increasingly interconnected world.
Artificial Intelligence in Reporting
There is no clear indication that AI was used in crafting this article. However, if AI were involved, it could have influenced the tone and structure of the reporting, possibly emphasizing particular themes or presenting data in a way that aligns with editorial biases.
In conclusion, this article serves to highlight the challenges of the UK government's immigration plan while framing the discussion in a manner that could influence public sentiment and political support. The trustworthiness of the information is upheld through factual reporting, but the narrative may reflect selective framing that emphasizes certain viewpoints over others.