US weather forecasting is more crippled than previously known as hurricane season nears

The National Weather Service is in worse shape than previously known, according to interviews with current and former meteorologists, due to a combination of layoffs, early retirements and preexisting vacancies. The nation’s forecasting agency is in tatters as what could be a destructive hurricane season nears. Several current and former agency meteorologists told CNN they are concerned forecasts and life-saving warnings are not going to be issued in time. Responsible for protecting life and property from severe weather impacts, the National Weather Service is headed into hurricane season with 30 of its 122 weather forecast offices lacking their most experienced official, known as the meteorologist-in-charge. These include offices that cover major population centers such as New York City, Cleveland, Houston and Tampa. There is not a single manager in place at the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston forecast office, according to a NOAA staff member who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal. That office was the main source of information during Hurricane Harvey, which killed at least 68 people, dumped a record 60.58 inches of rain and flooded large parts of the Houston metro area in 2017. Already, multiple offices have reduced or eliminated daily weather balloon launches and more are likely to follow suit following a wave of early retirements taking place this week, the NOAA employee said. The balloons provide critical data for computer models that forecasters use to predict the weather, raising the likelihood that projections will be more unreliable. One NWS forecast office, in Goodland, Kansas, is no longer operating 24/7, with about a dozen more likely to shift to non-24-hour operations if action isn’t taken this month. These offices include several in the Plains states and stretch into the Pacific Northwest. Such a change is virtually unheard of in the absence of an extreme weather event, such as a hurricane or tornado, that either threatens the lives of the forecasters themselves or knocks them offline. There are also more than 90 vacancies among the staff responsible for repairing NWS Doppler radars and automated surface weather observation stations, the NOAA staff member said, greatly raising the likelihood of prolonged equipment outages that could affect air travel. Weather stations provide pilots and controllers with crucial data on wind direction and speed at airports to determine how to take off and land safely, among other parameters. Radar outages during tornado and hurricane seasons could cause forecasters to miss hazardous conditions till after they strike. The NWS has lost more than 550 people all told, since the start of Trump’s second term, according to tallies kept by sources inside and outside of the agency. That’s about the same number as the agency lost in the 15 years between 2010 and 2025, according to Tom Fahy of Capitol Meteorologics. ‘The critical linchpin’ Of the hundreds of vacancies, the 30 open meteorologist-in-charge roles are particularly worrying, current and former NWS meteorologists told CNN. Meteorologists-in-charge serve as the captain of a team of forecasters and other specialized staff members. Their decades of experience often comes into play during high-impact weather situations, an active-duty NWS meteorologist told CNN. They also requested anonymity for fear of reprisal. “They’re usually the glue that holds it together,” the NOAA staff member said of these chief meteorologists. These leaders work forecast shifts when needed, interpret guidance coming from NWS headquarters, and help push their forecasters to adopt new technology, forecast and warning techniques, said a weather service employee who also requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press. “The MICs are the critical linchpin in the operation of our weather forecast offices,” said former NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad, using the acronym for these managers. “They ensure the forecasters have all they need to be most effective, and they are the direct link to NWS HQ for safe and timely communications during weather events,” Spinrad, who led NOAA during the Biden administration, told CNN. “Not having a permanent MIC in place is like having a substitute pilot on the airplane.” Importantly, these most experienced members of a local forecast office are well known to local media as well as the emergency management community. When there is no one in that role, those external relationships can suffer. Gary Szatkowski, who was the meteorologist-in-charge of the NWS Mt. Holly, N.J. office when Hurricane Sandy struck in 2012, said briefing the media and emergency managers is a crucial function of the role. He said he spent 10 days straight at the office in the runup to and aftermath of that storm due to the forecast and briefing needs associated with the region, which included the cities of Philadelphia and Atlantic City. With such positions missing for long periods, he worries those emergency management connections will fray. “It’s like driving down the road with bald tires. You might get 1,000 miles. You might get 10 miles. To some extent, you don’t know. You’re just engaging in a risky behavior.” With FEMA limping into hurricane season with staff vacancies of their own, the state and local emergency management interactions that meteorologists in charge typically have may be even more important during the coming months. “They too are meteorologists and often fill shifts when folks are sick or on vacation or there are vacancies,” the NWS employee said, and their absence makes it harder to fill those shifts and keep the lights on. Further cuts to NOAA are in the works, though the NWS may not suffer the brunt of that next round. Hurricane season begins on June 1.