Trump is Middle East-bound for his first major international trip of his second term. Here’s what to watch

President Donald Trump embarks Monday on the first major international trip of his second term — an opportunity to shore up relations with a trio of key Middle Eastern allies and prove his might as a dealmaker on the world stage. Arriving in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday with stops in Doha, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, later in the week, the trip echoes Trump’s first international foray in 2017. “Now, eight years later, President Trump will return to reemphasize his continued vision for a proud, prosperous, and successful Middle East, where the United States and Middle Eastern nations are in cooperative relationships, and where extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, casting the trip as a “historic return to the Middle East.” But much has changed in the global and economic world order since Trump’s first-term sojourn: The president has dramatically reimagined and reshaped the US’ role in the world in his first months in office, and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars have upended stability in Europe and the Middle East. Still, the trip offers Trump the chance to notch a few economic wins, revel in the pomp and circumstance of presidential visits, and highlight deepening partnerships. And what goes unmentioned on the trip may prove just as important as what is said. Here’s what we’ll be watching on Trump’s first big trip abroad: Pomp and circumstance Trump’s counterparts are likely to roll out the literal and figurative red carpet for the American president. In 2017, Trump’s likeness was projected onto the side of the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, and there could be similar efforts to welcome the American president this time by world leaders seen as friendly to the Trump administration. “This is his happy place. His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They’ll be keen to make deals. They’ll flatter him and not criticize him. And they’ll treat his family members as past and future business partners,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Trump is also expected to visit with service members at the US air base in Qatar, Leavitt said. During the president’s 2017 trip to Saudi Arabia, an image of the Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud holding a glowing orb at a counterterrorism center in Riyadh spawned memes around the world; it remains to be seen what this trip’s orb might be. Deliverables The president’s top priority this week is to procure “economic agreements” with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates that would enhance their investments in America, multiple Trump administration officials said. “The main purpose of the trip will be to give the president some wins. Trade and investment deals will be announced that will burnish the president’s image as a negotiator. Big numbers will emerge. Precedents will be established with applicability to the rest of the world,” Alterman said, predicting some deals in the artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency spheres. Experts expect Trump to pressure his counterparts to bring down the price of oil, an effort by the president to make good on a key campaign promise to lower everyday costs, though it’s unclear how much progress could be made on this front. There’s also the broader symbolism of the trip, highlighting the close ties and alliances between the countries and the Trump administration, particularly as diplomatic mediators with foreign adversaries. Qatar, for instance, has been a key mediator between Israel, Hamas and the US as the Trump administration pushes for a hostage release and ceasefire deal. And Saudi Arabia has been a key interlocutor with Russia as Trump’s team pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration is also expected to soon accept a luxury plane from the Qatari royal family that will be retrofitted and used as Air Force One during the president’s second term, according to two people familiar with the agreement. Following reports on the jet, Trump said Sunday night that the Defense Department plans to accept a Boeing 747-8 to replace Air Force One as a “GIFT, FREE OF CHARGE.” Given the massive value of a Boeing 747-8, the move is unprecedented and raises substantial ethical and legal questions. A Qatari official said the plane is technically being gifted from the Qatari Ministry of Defense to the Pentagon, describing it as a government-to-government transaction instead of a personal one. The specter of Iran The trip comes at a critical moment for US nuclear talks with Iran, led by Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, who has emerged as a top adviser and diplomat. Witkoff led a fourth round of high-stakes talks with his Iranian counterparts in Oman on Sunday. A senior US official cast the talks as “encouraging” and said there were plans to “move forward” on technical aspects of the negotiations. “Gulf states are cautiously supportive of the administration’s Iran nuclear talks, in part because they fear they’d be the first victims of a war with Iran,” Alterman said. Trump has warned there will be consequences for Iran if a deal is not reached. But he is also likely to be pressed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE on the substance of any deal. “There are two critical questions that we don’t have great clarity about and that I suspect our Gulf partners are going to press the administration for more clarity on. The first issue is: What would a nuclear deal look like? Would the administration accept a deal that allows for some domestic enrichments, or would the administration insist on complete dismantling of Iran’s domestic enrichment capabilities?” said Nathan Sales, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. Trump said Wednesday that a decision on whether Iran can have a nuclear enrichment program has not been made. “We haven’t made that decision yet. We will, but we haven’t made that decision yet,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. Sales, Trump’s coordinator for counterterrorism during the president’s first term, said his second question is: “Would the administration accept an agreement that is limited specifically to the nuclear file, or will the administration insist on also addressing Iran’s support for regional terrorism — for instance, its ballistic missile program and various other forms of maligned behavior with which the region is unfortunately all too well acquainted?” Top aides and advisers The trip also comes shortly after a major shakeup in Trump’s national security team. The president announced earlier this month that he would nominate national security adviser Mike Waltz to serve as UN ambassador after widespread reports that the president planned to oust him. Waltz had lost most of his influence in the West Wing after he inadvertently added a journalist to a group chat on the messaging app Signal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is replacing Waltz as national security adviser on an interim basis. Trump will travel with a large delegation, including several Cabinet secretaries and high-ranking officials. Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are expected to fly to the region, separately from Trump, to participate in meetings. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is also expected to join the delegation. The majority of senior staff at the White House, including chief of staff Susie Wiles and Trump’s slate of deputy chiefs, will also be accompanying the president, senior White House officials told CNN. The president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is unlikely to go, sources said, but has continued to be a crucial player behind the scenes on Middle East talks. Background issues Perhaps some of the most significant aspects of the trip are topics that are not expected to be discussed publicly by Trump or his counterparts. Even as the president is likely to highlight key Gulf investments in the US, he has reshaped the economic world order with his tariff policies, prompting major instability in the US and global economy. Jonathan Panikoff, a former career US intelligence officer and director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said discussions about tariffs and ensuring the US economy is “more robust” will be a “pretty major part” of Trump’s conversations. A strong US economy, Panikoff said, is “important, critically, for these countries’ own economy.” Trump is expected to depart less than a day after top US officials announced what they described as a “deal” with China — breaking weeks of gridlock and potentially offering the president a win ahead of the trip. It is unclear whether Trump will publicly discuss Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and its treatment of women. The Saudi government has said it has a “deep commitment” to fostering “opportunities for every Saudi citizen.” And there are Trump’s personal financial interests in the region. The Trump Organization, which is being run by the president’s sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, is involved in major real estate projects in each of the countries he will visit. None of the president’s family members are expected to join him on the trip, Leavitt said. Speaking in Dubai last month, Eric Trump stressed the importance of ties between the US and Gulf countries. “This whole region is dependent on a strong America. And I hear that time and time again. I hear that from the biggest leaders in the Gulf,” he said, according to Reuters. The Israel elephant in the room It is extremely notable that Trump’s trip to the region will not include a stop in Israel. Dynamics in the Middle East have changed significantly since Trump’s first term. Hamas’ October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks and the ensuing war in Gaza has caused a renewed rift between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Ahead of the trip, there have been discussions with Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, about signing agreements to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, Trump administration sources said. Trump advisers have been privately plotting the more ambitious goal of expanding the Abraham Accords, the treaties negotiated during Trump’s first term between several Arab nations and Israel, those sources said. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s de facto leader, has stated unequivocally that Riyadh won’t normalize relations with Israel until there is a clear path for Palestinian statehood and a permanent end to the war in Gaza — neither of which appears imminent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also said he is launching a new, more intensive phase of the war in Gaza, though an Israeli official has said it would begin after Trump’s visit. Notably, Hamas on Sunday announced its intent to imminently release Edan Alexander, the last known living American hostage, with a source familiar with the matter describing the move as a “total good will gesture.” “The problem of course underlying all of this trip is the unsettled nature of the war in Gaza remains a bottleneck to any kind of breakthrough,” said Daniel Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former US ambassador to Israel. Trump, Shapiro said, could use the trip to “unstick that bottleneck” and avoid “this major Israeli military operation that’s been forecast and approved by the cabinet, getting hostages out, getting humanitarian aid in, and taking some steps towards Hamas’ removal.” CNN’s Alayna Treene, Kristen Holmes, Kaitlan Collins, and Jeremy Diamond contributed to this report.