The US stock market just recorded its worst first 100 days of any presidential term since President Gerald Ford assumed office in 1974. The stock market initially surged higher after President Donald Trump’s reelection in November on expectations for a pro-business boom. Yet 100 days into Trump’s second term, Wall Street has been shaken by historic levels of uncertainty and volatility because of tariffs. “Given the ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy and the economic outlook more broadly, we suspect the going will get tougher from here,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Monday note. The stock market has rallied in recent days, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting a six-day winning streak. The Dow on Tuesday closed higher by 300 points or 0.75%. The broader S&P 500 gained 0.58% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.55%. However, the S&P 500 is still down 7.27% since Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The benchmark index has shed $3.66 trillion in market value since Trump was inaugurated, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Markets extended their gains Tuesday afternoon as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CNBC he had a trade deal done, though he declined to name the country. The S&P 500’s performance so far during Trump’s second term has been the third-worst performance during the first 100 days of any presidential term in US history, following only President Richard Nixon and Ford. “Policy is overshadowing key fundamentals,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management Group. “We could still have some weakness in front of us, but at a minimum, we’ve got volatility until visibility around tariffs starts to improve.” A whipsawing ride for the stock market The stock market has been on a rollercoaster this year, whipsawing at the whims of Trump’s back-and-forth decisions on tariff policy. The S&P 500 hit a record high in February before sliding into correction in March as Trump began to roll out his plan for tariffs. The S&P 500 plummeted in early April after Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, hitting its lowest point of the year on April 8, when it was on the cusp of entering a bear market. The market has regained some ground since but the S&P 500 is still down 1.94% from where it was before Trump unveiled his “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2. “I don’t remember a time when a policy was so directly aimed at economic outcomes, where it was received so negatively, universally by the investment community,” said Kelly Bouchillon, senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors. “It’s the most uncertainty I think we’ve seen around corporate earnings and growth in sometime, all self-inflicted by the administration.” The Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which boosted the market to record highs in 2024, have broadly slumped this year. Apple (AAPL) is down 15.66% this year. Nvidia (NVDA) is down 18.8%. Tesla (TSLA) is down 27.7%. Amazon (AMZN) has tumbled 14.6% this year. The e-commerce giant briefly dropped on Tuesday after a report from Punchbowl News that the e-commerce giant would begin listing how much of an item’s price represents the added cost of tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the move a “hostile and political act.” An Amazon spokesperson said in a statement to CNN that the move “was never a consideration for the main Amazon site and nothing has been implemented on any Amazon properties.” Trump called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to complain, two senior White House officials told CNN. Trump later said it was a “good call.” “Jeff Bezos was very nice. He was terrific,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “He solved the problem very quickly. Good guy.” The best performers in the market this year have been have been tobacco and gold, according to CFRA Research. Newmont Corporation (NEM), a gold mining company, is up 42.3% this year. Phillip Morris (PM), the tobacco giant, is up 41.47%. Meanwhile, AI and tech company Palantir (PLTR) has soared 53.48% this year, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 after gaining about 340% in 2024. The Nasdaq, which entered a bear market on April 4, is down 11% since Trump’s inauguration. The Dow is down 6.8% since Trump’s inauguration. US government bonds While stocks have been volatile, US Treasuries have emerged as a notable loser in Trump’s first 100 days in office. Typically, when investors sell off stocks in times of uncertainty, they park their cash in US Treasuries, seeking the safety of an asset backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. Yet as stocks declined around the world in early April, investors abruptly sold off US Treasuries, raising questions about how much they value US government bonds as a haven. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has come down to 4.176% since spiking in early April, but the recent volatility has unnerved investors. “The prospect of foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets amid concerns about the continued predominance of US Treasuries as a safe haven has been at the center of market debate over the last few weeks,” said Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a Monday note. The US dollar A decline in the dollar this year has sparked debates on Wall Street about the stability and preeminence of US financial markets. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six foreign currencies, has tumbled more than 8% this year. The dollar index on April 21 hit its lowest level in three years. After Trump’s election in November, the dollar pushed higher on expectations for economic growth. The swift decline in the dollar has raised questions about investors’ confidence in the United States. The Euro has gained more than 9% against the dollar this year. “That trend of a weaker currency and money flowing into non-US assets does stand out to me as being maybe something that’s going to be a little bit more persistent going forward,” said Joe Zappia, co-chief investment officer at LVW Advisors. International stocks Some winners across Trump’s first 100 days have been stocks overseas, which have been buoyed by investors reconsidering their allocations to US assets. US markets this year have underperformed markets in Europe, South America and Asia, and the theme of selling American assets has recently captivated some global investors and analysts on Wall Street. Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey showed the largest number of global investors on record intending to decrease holdings of US stocks. Germany’s DAX index is up 12.6% this year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 9.7% this year. The Trump administration’s trade policy has raised concerns about US economic growth and caused global investors to rethink their exposure to the US, Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, told CNN. “If you’re a European investor, you will now think twice about allocating strategically to the US,” Sai said. “The S&P 500 is no longer the only game in town.” Wall Street’s fear gauge Trump’s trade policy has injected historic levels of volatility into the stock market. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked sharply this year, hitting levels not seen since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The VIX closed at 52 points on April 8. The VIX has only closed above 50 twice before this month: in March 2020 and during the 2008 financial crisis. The VIX has declined in recent weeks but is still trading above 20 points, the level associated with heightened volatility. Gold Gold has emerged as the champion of Trump’s first 100 days. The yellow metal has soared about 26% this year, smashing through record highs and briefly surpassing $3,500 a troy ounce. Investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven given the uncertain outlook of Trump’s tariffs and the US-China trade war. Bullion is historically a haven during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The most crowded trade in April was gold, according to the Bank of America survey, breaking a two-year streak for the Magnificent Seven tech stocks.
The stock market’s worst first 100 days of any presidential term in more than 50 years
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"U.S. Stock Market Faces Worst First 100 Days of Presidential Term in Over 50 Years"
CNN
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TruthLens AI Summary
The U.S. stock market has experienced its most challenging start to a presidential term in over half a century, marking the worst first 100 days since Gerald Ford's presidency in 1974. Initially, following Donald Trump’s reelection in November, Wall Street anticipated a thriving pro-business environment, which led to a surge in stock prices. However, by the end of the first 100 days of his second term, the market faced significant turbulence driven by unprecedented uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs. Analysts like Jonas Goltermann from Capital Economics have cautioned that the outlook remains bleak, suggesting that the challenges could intensify. Despite a recent rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 showing some recovery, the S&P 500 is down over 7% since Trump's inauguration, reflecting a staggering loss of approximately $3.66 trillion in market value. The volatility in the market is underscored by a lack of clarity regarding trade deals, as indicated by comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about an undisclosed agreement, which only adds to the uncertainty investors face.
Throughout this tumultuous period, the stock market has undergone extreme fluctuations, influenced heavily by the administration's inconsistent tariff strategies. The S&P 500, which reached a record high earlier in the year, fell into correction territory after the announcement of new tariffs, hitting its lowest point in early April. The current performance is the third worst for any presidential first 100 days in history, trailing only Nixon and Ford. The investment community has expressed widespread concern about the implications of these policies on corporate earnings and growth, which many see as self-inflicted wounds. While sectors like gold and tobacco have thrived amid this uncertainty, traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries have faltered, raising questions about their reliability as a refuge for investors. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has weakened significantly this year, prompting a reevaluation of the U.S. market's attractiveness to global investors, as they look towards more stable opportunities elsewhere. The overall sentiment suggests that Wall Street is bracing for continued volatility until there is more clarity on the administration's trade strategies and their economic ramifications.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article highlights a significant downturn in the US stock market during the early days of President Trump's second term, marking it as the worst performance since Gerald Ford's presidency. This context is crucial as it reflects not only on Trump's economic policies but also on the broader implications of uncertainty in trade and tariff discussions. The performance of the stock market serves as an indicator of economic health, and the article aims to inform readers about the challenges facing investors and the potential volatility ahead.
Market Performance Analysis
The article presents a stark overview of the stock market's performance, emphasizing the 7.27% decline of the S&P 500 since Trump's inauguration. This statistic is designed to create a sense of urgency and concern among investors and the general public. The mention of historical context regarding stock market performance during presidential terms adds weight to the narrative, suggesting that the current administration's policies may not be conducive to economic stability.
Economic Implications
The commentary from economists such as Jonas Goltermann and Terry Sandven underscores the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Their insights imply that the economic outlook may worsen if tariffs remain a point of contention. This framing suggests that readers should be cautious about their investments and be aware of the potential for ongoing instability in the market.
Public Sentiment and Perception
By highlighting the volatility and uncertainty in the stock market, the article aims to shape public perception regarding the effectiveness of the current administration's economic policies. It suggests a growing skepticism among investors, which could lead to a more cautious approach to spending and investment, potentially exacerbating economic challenges.
Connections with Other News
This article aligns with broader narratives in financial news coverage, particularly concerning the impact of political decisions on economic performance. It reflects ongoing discussions about the administration's handling of trade relations and tariffs, which have been a recurring theme in financial news. This connection emphasizes the interdependence of politics and economics in shaping market dynamics.
Potential Societal Impact
The article may influence public opinion by fostering a sense of caution and concern regarding the economy. This could lead to reduced consumer spending and investment, further impacting economic growth. As uncertainty looms, different sectors may experience varying levels of impact, with technology and manufacturing industries particularly sensitive to trade policy changes.
Target Audience
The article is likely to resonate with investors, economists, and individuals concerned about the economic implications of political decisions. It may appeal more to those who are skeptical of the current administration's policies, as well as those who prioritize economic stability in their investment strategies.
Effects on Stock Market and Investments
This news could lead to increased volatility in the stock market, as investors react to the reported uncertainties. Stocks in sectors heavily influenced by trade policy, such as technology and manufacturing, may be particularly affected. The report could prompt investors to reassess their portfolios and consider diversifying to mitigate risk.
Global Power Dynamics
The implications of this article extend beyond the US, as trade policies can affect global markets and economic relationships. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs could lead to shifts in international trade dynamics, impacting the global economy and the power balance among nations.
Use of AI in Reporting
It is possible that AI tools were employed in crafting this article, particularly in data analysis and trend identification. Such technologies can assist in presenting complex financial information clearly, though the narrative style suggests a human touch in crafting the message to resonate with the audience. AI might have contributed to the organization of data and statistics, but the framing of the article reflects editorial choices aimed at capturing public concern.
In conclusion, while the article provides factual information regarding market performance, it also carries an undertone of caution and concern, shaping public perception about the current administration's economic policies. The analysis reveals that the article is designed to inform readers while also potentially influencing their sentiments regarding investment and economic stability.