There is no doubt that Reform performed well in Thursday's local council elections. The party won most votes, most seats and overall control of most councils. True, the party's share of the votes cast across all 23 councils where elections took place on Thursday was no more than 31%. So despite doing well, it secured far from a majority of those voting. However, its performance was enough to put Reform well ahead of the Conservatives – who traditionally dominate county councils - on 23%, the Liberal Democrats on 17% and Labour on 14% when you tally up the votes in those parts of England that went to the polls on Thursday. At the 2024 general election Reform secured 14% of the vote but just 5 out of 650 seats at Westminster. But crucially, being ahead of everyone else in 2025 ensured the first past the post-election system helped Reform. Its tally of 677 council seats represented 41% of all those being contested on Thursday, ten points above its share of the vote, a nod to both the nature of the voting system and Reform's ability to cluster votes. That boost helped the party win control of as many as 10 councils, something that Reform's predecessor, Ukip, never managed at the height of its popularity in the run up to the 2015 general election. In Staffordshire, Reform won 72% of the seats on 41% of the vote. In Kent, 37% of the vote delivered it 70% of the seats, while in Derbyshire the same share was rewarded with 66% of all the councillors. Instead of insulating Conservative and Labour from the impact of a third-party challenge, as it has done so often before, first-past-the-post exacerbated their losses. In both cases Reform took nearly half of all the seats those parties were defending. The map above is the most detailed local election mapping ever produced by the BBC. It details the strength of the Reform vote in every ward that voted on Thursday and shows support for Reform varied considerably. That variation has some striking and important features. They suggest the party was particularly popular among those who voted for Brexit in 2016 and for Boris Johnson in 2019 - and that Reform's success cannot simply be dismissed as a short-lived protest vote. Reflecting the party's anti-EU stance, Reform did much better in wards that voted heavily for Leave in the 2016 EU referendum than it did in wards that backed Remain. In wards where more than 65% voted Leave in 2016, Reform won on average as much as 45% of the vote. In contrast, in places where a majority backed Remain, only 19% voted for Reform. Although talked about much less by politicians nowadays, Brexit is still an important fault line in our politics. Reform's appeal is significantly concentrated among those who believe the Brexit decision was right. Even so, the fact that even in pro-Remain wards the party was able to win as much as a fifth of the vote was testimony to the scale of the swing that it enjoyed on Thursday. The Brexit division is also evident in the demographic character of the places where Reform did best and those where it did less well. University graduates and those in professional and managerial jobs were least likely to vote for Brexit in 2016. Reform found it more difficult to do well in places where they are most numerous. Reform won 39% of the vote in heavily working-class wards but only 19% in the most middle-class ones. The map shows Reform's highest vote of all (65.1%) was in Thornley & Wheatley Hill, situated in Tony Blair's former Sedgefield constituency in Durham and once a centre of coal mining. Next highest was Chadsmoor in Staffordshire and Romney Marsh in Kent. Meanwhile, support for the party averaged 43% in wards where more than half of adults have few, if any, educational qualifications. In contrast, it polled just 19% where more than two in five have a degree. Reform's lowest share of the vote, 3.7%, was in the Parks ward in Oxford, situated in the heart of the famous university city. Immigration is also a key issue for Reform. However, this perhaps makes the party less appealing to those from a minority background. Certainly, on average the party only polled 22% in wards where more than one in five identify as other than 'white', compared with a tally of 33% in places where more than 95% told the 2021 Census that they were 'white'. In summary, Reform did best in what has sometimes been characterised in the wake of the Brexit referendum as 'left-behind' Britain – places that have profited less from globalisation and university expansion and where a more conservative outlook on immigration is more common. Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are likely to recover from the drubbing they received on Thursday unless they can appeal more to this slice of Britain. Although polls indicate that Reform finds it easier to win over former Conservative voters than their Labour counterparts, Reform's average share of the vote was strikingly just as high in wards that Labour were defending as it was in places that the Conservatives were trying to retain. The party on average won 32% of the vote in previously Labour wards and 32% in Conservative ones. As a result, Labour lost seats to Reform at much the same rate as the Conservatives, a pattern that cost Labour control of the one council they were defending, Doncaster. In contrast, Reform's advance was more muted in wards that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens were defending. The party's average share in these wards was just 22%. As a result, Reform had relatively little success in taking seats from these two parties. Liberal Democrat and Green wards – unlike many Conservative and Labour ones - are heavily populated by university graduates. Reform's success on Thursday undoubtedly reflects the mood of an electorate that still has little faith in the Conservatives and which now is disappointed by Labour's performance in office. However, it is evidently proving most popular in a very distinctive part of Britain that overturned the political tables a decade ago in voting for Brexit - and which now has done so again. John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and 'The UK in a Changing Europe'. Analysis by Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, and Lotte Hargrave Map produced by Libby Rogers, Muskeen Liddar, Jess Carr and Callum Thomson. BBC InDepthis the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. 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Sir John Curtice: The map that shows Reform's triumph was much more than a protest vote
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Reform Party Achieves Significant Local Election Gains Amidst Changing Political Landscape"
Bbc News
7.4
TruthLens AI Summary
The recent local council elections in the UK have demonstrated a significant performance by the Reform party, which has emerged as a formidable force in local politics. Reform secured a total of 31% of the votes across 23 councils, placing it ahead of traditional powerhouses such as the Conservatives, who garnered 23%, the Liberal Democrats at 17%, and Labour at 14%. Despite not achieving an outright majority, Reform's results marked a notable shift in the political landscape, allowing the party to claim 677 council seats, which equates to 41% of those contested. This success is particularly striking when compared to its predecessor, Ukip, which was unable to capture a similar foothold during its peak. The first-past-the-post electoral system has significantly benefited Reform, allowing the party to convert a plurality of votes into a majority of seats in several councils, including substantial victories in areas like Staffordshire and Kent, where they won a disproportionate number of seats relative to their vote share.
The voting patterns reveal that Reform's support is deeply rooted in the Brexit sentiment, particularly among voters who supported Leave in the 2016 referendum. The party performed exceptionally well in areas with a high concentration of Leave voters, capturing an average of 45% of the vote in wards where over 65% voted Leave, compared to only 19% in Remain-supporting wards. This indicates that Reform's appeal is not merely a fleeting protest vote but rather a reflection of a sustained ideological alignment with Brexit supporters. Furthermore, demographic trends show that Reform resonates more with working-class voters, achieving 39% support in heavily working-class wards, while struggling to attract votes in more affluent, educated areas. This election outcome underscores the challenges facing both the Conservative and Labour parties, as they grapple with the need to reconnect with a segment of the electorate that feels left behind in the wake of globalization and changing political dynamics, particularly with regards to immigration and national identity.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article provides an analysis of the recent performance of the Reform party in the local council elections in England, highlighting their surprising success and the implications for the political landscape. It emphasizes that while Reform did not secure a majority of the votes, their strategic positioning allowed them to win a significant number of seats, thereby challenging the traditional dominance of the Conservative and Labour parties.
Political Implications and Public Perception
The reporting suggests that Reform's success is not merely a protest vote but indicates a shift in voter preferences, potentially reflecting dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties. By highlighting Reform's ability to outperform the Conservatives and Labour in several key areas, the article aims to enhance the party's legitimacy and appeal to voters who may be seeking alternatives to the traditional political options.
Concealed Aspects
One potential aspect that may be overlooked is the long-term viability of Reform as a political entity. The article does not delve into whether this success can be sustained in future elections beyond the local level, which could be crucial for understanding the broader implications of this electoral shift. Additionally, it doesn’t address the potential backlash or response from established parties.
Manipulative Elements
The article's framing might suggest a manipulative intent by emphasizing Reform's victories without adequately discussing the context of those victories. The language used could lead readers to view the Reform party as a rising force, potentially downplaying the complexities involved in their electoral success. The data presented is factual, but its interpretation could be seen as biased towards creating a narrative of Reform's ascendancy.
Comparison with Other News
In the broader context of political news, this article aligns with a growing trend of focusing on third-party movements in various democracies, which often signals shifts in voter sentiment. It reflects a common narrative seen in contemporary political reporting where established parties are challenged by new entrants.
Potential Impact on Society and Politics
The outcomes described could have significant ramifications for the political landscape in the UK, potentially leading to a fragmentation of the traditional two-party system. If Reform can maintain or build upon this momentum, it may influence future general elections, particularly if they continue to attract disaffected voters from both Conservative and Labour camps.
Support Base and Target Audience
Reform is likely to gain support from individuals disillusioned with mainstream politics, particularly those who feel that their concerns are not being adequately addressed by the traditional parties. The article appeals to voters seeking change and may resonate particularly with those on the right who are looking for alternatives to Conservative policies.
Market and Economic Impact
While the article may not directly influence stock markets, the political shifts it discusses could impact investor sentiment, particularly in sectors closely tied to government policy. Companies in industries such as public services, infrastructure, and social welfare could be affected by potential shifts in funding and regulatory frameworks depending on the political landscape.
Global Context
The article's focus on local elections also has relevance in the global context, as many democracies are experiencing similar trends of third-party emergence. This reflects a broader dissatisfaction with established political systems, echoing sentiments seen in other countries.
Use of AI in Writing
It is plausible that AI tools were employed to analyze election data and generate aspects of the narrative, particularly in the statistical interpretation. AI could enhance the clarity and presentation of complex information, but the article maintains a human touch in its analysis and insights.
Overall, the article combines factual reporting with a narrative that could be interpreted as promoting the Reform party's position in the political landscape. The reliability of the article rests on the accuracy of the data presented, but the interpretations and implications drawn may reflect a subjective perspective.