When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, officials in Russia described the current escalation in the Middle East as "alarming" and "dangerous." Still, Russian media were quick to stress the potential positives for Moscow. Among them: However, the longer Israel's military operation goes on, the greater the realisation that Russia has much to lose from current events. "The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow," wrote Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov in business daily Kommersant on Monday. "The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership. "Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it's not ready to provide Iran with military assistance." The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership deal which Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year is not a military alliance. It does not oblige Moscow to come to Tehran's defence. At the time, though, Moscow talked it up. In an interview with the Ria Novosti news agency, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the agreement paid "special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence". In the last six months Moscow has already lost one key ally in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad. After the Syrian leader was deposed last December he was offered asylum in Russia. The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of major concern to Moscow. Commenting on developments in the Middle East on Tuesday, Moskovsky Komsomolets concluded: "In global politics right now, massive changes are taking place in real time which will affect life in our country, either directly or indirectly." Vladimir Putin will be spending much of this week in St Petersburg where the city is hosting its annual International Economic Forum. The event was once dubbed "Russia's Davos", but the label doesn't really apply now. In recent years the chief executives of big Western companies have stayed away – especially since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, the organisers claim that this year representatives from more than 140 countries and territories will attend. Russian authorities will almost certainly use the event to try to demonstrate that attempts to isolate Russia over the war in Ukraine have failed. An economic forum it may be, but geopolitics is never far away. We'll be watching closely for any comments the Kremlin leader makes about the Middle East and about Ukraine.
Russia fears another loss in Middle East from Iran's conflict with Israel
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"Russia Expresses Concern Over Regional Stability Amid Iran-Israel Conflict"
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TruthLens AI Summary
The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly following Israel's Operation Rising Lion, has raised significant concerns among Russian officials, who have described the situation as both 'alarming' and 'dangerous.' While Russian media have pointed out potential gains for Moscow in the long run, the immediate implications are troubling. Analysts like Andrei Kortunov have emphasized that the ongoing military actions by Israel pose serious risks to Russia's interests in the region. Despite having signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran just five months ago, Russia finds itself limited in its ability to respond effectively. The Kremlin's reluctance to extend military assistance to Iran highlights the precarious nature of its alliances and the reality that Moscow cannot afford to escalate its involvement in another conflict, especially given the recent loss of ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Furthermore, the prospect of regime change in Iran raises alarms in Moscow, as losing another strategic partner could significantly weaken Russia's influence in the Middle East. The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly, and Russian commentators have noted that these developments could have far-reaching consequences for the country. As President Vladimir Putin attends the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg this week, the Kremlin is likely to focus on demonstrating resilience against isolation stemming from the war in Ukraine. Despite the economic nature of the forum, geopolitical discussions, particularly regarding the Middle East and Ukraine, are expected to dominate the discourse. Therefore, Russia's current predicament underscores the delicate balance it must maintain in international relations, as it navigates the complex dynamics of regional conflicts and its standing on the global stage.
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