Russia and Ukraine may meet again for peace talks. But neither side gives reason for optimism

Since last sitting down with Ukraine to talk peace, Russia has launched four of its five largest drone attacks against the country, killed more than 340 of its civilians and continued to peddle its false narrative about the unprovoked war it has been waging for more than a decade. Now, Moscow wants to talk. Again. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the next round of talks between Russia and Ukraine would take place in Turkey on Monday. On Sunday, Kyiv confirmed that it would be sending a delegation to the meeting, as Russian state media reported that a Russian delegation was flying to Istanbul for the talks. Kyiv says that Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange their requirements for a ceasefire during their previous meeting in Istanbul last month. But while Kyiv said it presented its plan last week, Russia has not. The Kremlin has so far ignored the call by Ukraine to present the plan. In a post on Telegram on Wednesday, Lavrov said the Russian delegation would present its memorandum to Ukraine at the meeting on June 2. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Kremlin’s failure to hand over its plan was “another Russian deception” and accused Moscow of not wanting to end the war. “For a meeting to be meaningful, its agenda must be clear, and the negotiations must be properly prepared,” Zelensky wrote on X on Friday, after hosting Turkey’s foreign minister for talks in Kyiv. Zelensky said he’d also discussed the potential second round of peace talks with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday, writing on Telegram: “We discussed a possible next meeting in Istanbul and under what conditions Ukraine is ready to take part in it. We share the view that this meeting cannot and should not be empty.” In a post on X on Sunday, the Ukrainian leader said that he had requested “preparation of the (Istanbul) meeting at the highest level” in order to “establish a reliable and lasting peace and ensure security.” Zelensky added that Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov would lead the delegation again. But even though Russian and Ukrainian officials have agreed to meet on Monday, their summit is unlikely to yield any immediate results. Statements made by Russian officials in recent days make it clear that Moscow is sticking to its maximalist demands. Speaking after a phone call with US President Donald Trump on May 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his demand that the “root causes” of the conflict must be eliminated. The “root causes” include long-held Russian grievances that include the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state, and NATO’s eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War. Kyiv has dismissed these demands, as accepting them would effectively amount to capitulation. Show for Trump The talks on Monday may be designed mostly to appease Trump, who has repeatedly told both Ukraine and Russia that there will be consequences if they don’t engage in his peace process. Trump has been pressuring Kyiv to talk to Moscow, threatening to walk away from the talks and cut US aid if he concludes that Ukraine isn’t cooperating. And while he has threatened “massive sanctions” against Russia if it doesn’t agree with his 30-day ceasefire proposal, he has also voiced concern that potential new sanctions on Russia could jeopardize a deal. On Friday, a bipartisan pair of US senators met with Zelensky in Kyiv. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut are co-sponsoring a bill to impose more sanctions on Russia – including a 500% tariff on goods imported from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products. It must pass both chambers of Congress and be approved by Trump to become law. Asked by reporters on Friday if he would support the bill, Trump responded: “I don’t know, I’ll have to see it. I’ll take a look at it.” Putin has not explicitly rejected the ceasefire proposals, choosing instead to delay and distract. Russia’s insistence on having the talks and presenting its ceasefire proposal only once the two sides meet is just the latest example of this tactic. Putin initially proposed the first round of the talks in response to the ceasefire-or-sanctions ultimatum given to Moscow by Ukraine’s European allies. The Russian president ignored the ultimatum, proposing instead “direct talks” between Moscow and Kyiv. This prompted Trump, who initially backed the ultimatum, to change his tune and call on Zelensky to “take the meeting.” Moscow’s conduct since the talks last month suggests no desire to end the war with a ceasefire. Russian forces have intensified airborne attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, are stepping up ground attacks in many areas along the front line, and Moscow is building up its forces elsewhere. At the same time, Putin ordered one of the largest expansions of the Russian military in recent years. Meanwhile, over the weekend, Ukraine carried out its most ambitious simultaneous strikes on Russian airbases since the war began, using drones to destroy multiple Russian combat planes on Sunday, according to a source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU). The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed Ukraine had targeted Russian airfields across five regions, calling the drone strikes “terrorist attacks.” The day before, two bridges in western regions of Russia collapsed, killing at least seven people and injuring dozens. It was not clear on Sunday morning whether the two incidents — which both involved trains — in neighboring Bryansk and Kursk were related, or what exactly caused the separate collapses. Investigators from Russia’s Investigative Committee were working at the scenes to establish the circumstances of what happened. Expectations were running high ahead of the talks last month, the first direct meeting between Ukraine and Russia since the early days of the full-scale war. This was mostly because of speculation that Putin himself might show up, after being challenged to travel to Turkey by Zelensky. When the Russian leader sent a low-level delegation in his place, it became clear no breakthrough was in sight. Although the two sides agreed to hold the largest ever prisoner exchange during the meeting, there was no sign of a ceasefire agreement being any closer. As for the latest meeting, while it’s obvious that neither Moscow nor Kyiv are particularly keen on talking to each other, and have little expectation of actual progress, they are likely to play along just to keep Trump interested.