Oil futures surge following US strikes in Iran

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"Oil Prices Rise Following U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites"

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Oil prices experienced a significant surge following the United States' military strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, marking a notable escalation in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. Late Sunday, U.S. oil futures surged by 3.6%, reaching approximately $76.47 per barrel, while Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose by 3.2%, settling at $74.59 per barrel. The market's reaction was swift, as U.S. stock futures fell in response to the heightened tensions, with Dow futures dropping by 250 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also saw declines of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. In contrast to stock market trends, the U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.3%, signaling a potential safe-haven appeal amidst geopolitical instability. However, analysts expressed skepticism regarding the dollar's performance under the current administration's economic policies, particularly in light of previous tariff measures that had negatively impacted the currency.

The situation in Israel also reacted positively to the news of the U.S. strikes, as traders interpreted the military action as a potential deterrent against Iranian nuclear threats. Israeli stocks soared to record levels, with the Tel Aviv 125 index climbing 1.8% to close at 2,919.62 and the TA-35 index gaining 1.5% to finish at an all-time high of 2,877.78. Despite the increase in U.S. oil production and a rise in crude oil stockpiles over recent months, there are growing concerns about Iran's possible actions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Economists warn that any retaliatory measures from Iran could severely disrupt oil supplies, which have a significant impact on inflation rates in the U.S. economy. In fact, over 25% of seaborne oil trade passed through the strait in early 2024, with the U.S. importing about 500,000 barrels per day through this vital passage, underscoring the strategic importance of the region in global energy markets.

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Oil prices surged late Sunday in Wall Street’s first reaction to the United States’ strikes on three Iranian nuclear Saturday evening — a major escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict.

US oil futures jumped 3.6% to about $76.47 per barrel. Brent futures, the global benchmark for oil prices, increased 3.2%, hitting $74.59 per barrel.

US stock futures fell in response to the attacks. Dow futures dropped 250 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures tumbled 0.7%.

The US dollar, however, rose 0.3%, an encouraging sign after America’s currency had tumbled after the Trump administration put in place historic tariffs on foreign imports. The dollar, widely referred to as the world’s reserve currency, tends to rally in times of global unease and conflict, but some market observers questioned if that would happen again under Trump’s “America First ” policies.

Israeli stocks were bolstered Sunday by the news, as traders believed the attacks could lower the chance that Iran poses a nuclear threat against the Jewish state. Israeli stocks surged to record highs. The Tel Aviv 125 climbed 1.8% to close at 2,919.62. The TA-35 gained 1.5% to close at 2,877.78, an all-time high.

The United States produces an average of roughly 13.4 million barrels a day. Crude oil stockpiles have increased more than 200 million barrels since early January and OPEC+ recently announced plans to increase production, but there are growing concerns that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz or pressure the flow of oil and trade in the area.

Economists are especially concerned about retaliations that could disrupt the flow of oil, which isheavily dependent on the strait. Any sharp jump in oil prices could potentially trigger higher inflation for the US economy.

During 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, more than 25% of seaborne oil trade flowed through the strait, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The US imported about 500,000 barrels per day through the strait, accounting for 7% of total US crude oil and condensate imports.

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Source: CNN