The world’s glaciers are in dire health with almost 40% of their total mass already doomed, even if global temperatures stopped rising immediately, a new study has found. Researchers estimate glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass relative to 2020, a trend that is already irreversible no matter what comes next and will likely contribute a 113-millimeter increase to global sea level rise. The loss rises to 76% if the world continues to pursue its current climate policies, which will likely fail to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a paper published in the journal Science. The latter scenario could prove disastrous for countries that depend on glacial meltwater for irrigation, power and drinking water; a world in which 39% of the glacier mass is lost compared to 76% is the “difference between being able to adapt to the loss of the glacier and not,” James Kirkham, a glaciologist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative told CNN. Even though the study offers a bleak prognosis for the world’s glaciers, its authors are trying “to give a message of hope,” said Lilian Schuster, a researcher at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, who co-led the study. “With the study, we want to show that with every tenth of a degree less of global warming, we can preserve glacier ice,” she told CNN. Nearly 200 nations pledged to work together in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming. Nations committed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, below 1.5 degrees. Each country is responsible for developing its own plans for achieving those goals. But temperatures keep rising — the world is currently on track for up to 2.9 degrees of warming by 2100. And every additional increase of 0.1 degrees between 1.5 and 3 degrees of warming results in an additional 2% of the global glacier mass being lost, the study predicts. “We’re not activists, this is science talking,” said Harry Zekollari, a researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium and ETH Zürich in Switzerland, who co-led the study. “Sometimes, the remarks we get is like ‘you’re alarmist and making people scared.’ I say, ‘I’m trying to give out what our computer numbers give us.’” This “landmark” study is “one of the most important pieces of glacier projection work that’s been done this decade,” said Kirkham, who wasn’t part of the research team but presented the paper at a United Nations conference on Saturday. Until this paper, previous projection studies ended their predictions at 2100 — the date often used in policy circles to measure the potential effect of the climate crisis, Kirkham said. But glaciers can take years, even centuries, to stabilize after the climate has changed, meaning that the true effect of rising temperatures can be masked for years, too. To investigate this phenomenon, this study used eight pre-existing glacier models and ran simulations stretching over centuries, predicting how each glacier will evolve in that timeframe. Using so many models produced a wide range of results. For example, the finding that glaciers will eventually lose 39% of their mass if current temperatures persist was the median result in a data set ranging from 15% to 55%. But although the range of results is “quite large,” they’re “all showing the same trend,” said Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, a professor at the University of Iceland, who wasn’t involved in the study. “The message is very clear,” she told CNN. “All the models are showing the same thing, that with increased warming, the more mass of glaciers we lose.” For Zekollari, the uncertainties in the results show “there’s still a lot to be done when it comes to comparing the different models.” These effects vary by region too, depending on how exposed each glacier is to climate change, the study found. Glaciers in Western Canada and the United States, northeast Canada, Scandinavia and the Russian Arctic are among those particularly at risk.
Nearly 40% of the world’s glaciers are already doomed, scientists say
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Study Warns Nearly 40% of Global Glaciers Face Irreversible Loss"
CNN
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TruthLens AI Summary
A new study has revealed that nearly 40% of the world's glaciers are facing inevitable loss, even if global temperatures stabilize immediately. Researchers have calculated that glaciers will ultimately lose 39% of their mass compared to levels in 2020, contributing to a projected 113-millimeter rise in global sea levels. If current climate policies persist, this figure could escalate to a staggering 76% loss of glacial mass. This situation poses severe risks for countries reliant on glacial meltwater for essential resources such as irrigation, energy generation, and drinking water. Glaciologist James Kirkham emphasized that the difference between a 39% loss versus a 76% loss is critical; it could determine whether nations can adapt to the dramatic changes resulting from glacial decline. The study, published in the journal Science, underscores the urgency of addressing climate change, as it indicates that with every additional increase of 0.1 degrees Celsius in global temperatures, there is a corresponding 2% increase in glacier mass loss.
Despite the grim findings, study co-leader Lilian Schuster highlighted a glimmer of hope, suggesting that reducing global warming by even small increments can help preserve glacier ice. The research was prompted by the global commitment made in the 2015 Paris Agreement, where nearly 200 countries pledged to limit temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally keeping it under 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, current trajectories indicate a potential rise of up to 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100, which could exacerbate the loss of glaciers. The study utilized multiple glacier models to project long-term changes, revealing a consensus across various simulations that increased warming leads to greater glacial mass loss. While the results show a broad range of predictions, they consistently indicate that all models agree on the adverse effects of rising temperatures. Regions such as Western Canada, the United States, Scandinavia, and the Russian Arctic are identified as particularly vulnerable to these changes, highlighting the need for more effective climate action to mitigate this pressing issue.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article highlights alarming findings about the health of the world’s glaciers, emphasizing the irreversible loss of nearly 40% of their mass. It aims to raise awareness about the implications of climate change on glacial ecosystems and the potential consequences for global sea levels, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by nations reliant on glacial meltwater.
Purpose of the Publication
The aim behind this article is to inform the public about the dire state of glaciers and the urgency of addressing climate change. By presenting scientific findings, the article seeks to motivate both policymakers and the general public to take meaningful action towards mitigating global warming.
Public Perception
The article is likely designed to foster a sense of urgency and concern within the community regarding environmental issues. It portrays a grim picture of the future, stressing the adverse effects that continued temperature increases could have on water supply and agriculture, which may lead to increased public demand for climate action.
Potential Omissions
While the article provides significant information about glacier loss and climate change, it may downplay the complexities of climate policy and the socio-economic factors involved in implementing effective solutions. It does not address the difficulties nations face in meeting the targets set by agreements like the Paris Agreement, which could provide a more nuanced view of the situation.
Manipulative Aspects
The manipulation ratio of this article can be considered moderate. It presents factual scientific data but emphasizes the negative outcomes of inaction, which may provoke fear and urgency. While this tactic can be effective in raising awareness, it risks overshadowing other important discussions around solutions and adaptive measures.
Credibility of the News
This article appears to be credible as it cites scientific research published in a reputable journal, "Science," and includes expert opinions from researchers in the field. However, the framing of the data may lead to an exaggerated perception of hopelessness, which could affect how the information is received by the public.
Underlying Messages
The underlying message seems to advocate for immediate action to reduce global warming. This aligns with the goals of environmental advocacy groups and policymakers committed to climate action, appealing particularly to communities that prioritize sustainability and environmental protection.
Economic and Political Implications
The news has the potential to influence public policy and environmental regulations, pushing governments to prioritize climate initiatives. It may also affect industries related to fossil fuels and renewable energy, likely leading to shifts in investment strategies and market confidence in green technologies.
Support from Specific Communities
Environmental advocacy groups, scientists, and communities directly affected by changes in glacial meltwater are likely to rally behind this article. It appeals to those who are already engaged in climate activism or are concerned about environmental degradation.
Market Impact
The article may impact global markets, particularly for companies involved in renewable energy and sustainable practices. Investors may shift their focus toward businesses that are aligned with climate goals, while fossil fuel industries could face scrutiny and potential declines in stock value.
Geopolitical Context
This article has relevance in the context of global climate negotiations and the geopolitical landscape, especially as nations grapple with the implications of climate change on resources and security. It fits within the broader discourse on climate change as a pressing global issue.
Artificial Intelligence Influence
There is a possibility that AI tools were used in the research and analysis phases of this news article, particularly in data processing and trend analysis. However, the human elements of expert commentary and subjective framing suggest a blend of AI assistance and journalistic integrity in the storytelling.
In conclusion, the article serves as a critical reminder of the urgency of climate action while also presenting a credible account of scientific findings. Its potential manipulative aspects are balanced by the genuine call for awareness and action against climate change, making it a significant piece of journalism in the current environmental discourse.