Musk joins Trump in playing legislative arsonist

For years, congressional Republicans have dealt with a president in Donald Trump who isn’t terribly engaged in (or often seemingly aware of) the day-to-day legislative battles – right up until the point he decides to make a splash. Sometimes, they’ll gently suggest he might get involved in the process a little earlier. Often, he waits and then just blows up the whole thing, forcing lawmakers to scramble to address his whims. As far back as 2018, I compared Trump to a legislative “arsonist.” It’s a tough enough situation for GOP lawmakers as it is. But now they apparently have two billionaire legislative arsonists leading their movement. Elon Musk on Tuesday afternoon lit into what Trump’s calling his “Big, Beautiful Bill,” which is largely devoted to extending his tax cuts. The bill has tested the tolerance of both fiscal conservatives who are worried about it ballooning the national debt and Republicans who want to protect Medicaid, which the House GOP’s version targets for significant cuts. And Musk wasn’t content to just express his opposition. He went so far as to call it a “disgusting abomination” that explodes the debt – contrary to GOP leaders’ and the White House’s claims. He accused Republicans who support it of knowing better. And he even suggested those who run afoul of him could find themselves targeted in the 2026 election. “It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to $2.5 trillion (!!!) and burden America citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt,” Musk posted on his social media platform X. He also wrote: “Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.” While Musk has gently expressed his concerns about Trump’s tariffs, broken with some Trump allies on visas for highly skilled workers, and even said he was “disappointed” by the “Big, Beautiful Bill” before, this is something else entirely. It’s Musk taking his chainsaw to what is likely to be the GOP’s most significant legislative effort of the current Congress – and Trump’s agenda – out of nowhere. Musk, who left his role as a special government employee just days ago, has a lot at stake as a businessman — something House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested could be behind the Tesla CEO’s outburst. “I know that the [electric vehicle] mandate – very important to him. That is going away, because the government should not be subsidizing these things as part of the Green New Deal. And I know that has an effect on his business. And I lament that,” he said. This is the second time Musk has done something like this. After Trump’s election in November, Musk played perhaps the biggest role in abruptly torpedoing a bipartisan bill to prevent a government shutdown. The billionaire did this even as Trump had been keeping his powder dry up until that point. It led plenty to wonder who was really in charge. The Trump team claimed it was aligned with Musk, but why had Musk suddenly taken the lead on this? Musk’s missive back then was remarkable for how quickly it marshalled conservative opposition and caused Republican officeholders to respond – often pleadingly. It called to mind the many instances in which Trump suddenly inserted himself into legislative battles at the 11th hour and shook them up. (Indeed, even on that specific bill, Trump decided very late in the process to demand the package include a debt-ceiling increase – a request that came out of left field and left Republicans wondering why he didn’t speak up earlier.) But this is different than in December. This time, Republicans have pursued their own bill focused on Trump’s tax cuts (rather than a must-pass bill to keep the government open) that is aimed at winning the president’s approval. And Trump has praised their efforts. Earlier on Tuesday, he saw fit to go hard after one of the bill’s chief GOP critics, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, whose concerns align with Musk’s. Trump’s push for the bill has created a situation in which there is a much more in-your-face tension between his and Musk’s positions than ever before – with no obvious way forward for the MAGA movement. There is plenty to play out with the bill, and virtually nobody thought the House-passed package that Musk was criticizing Tuesday would be the final result. But his fiery rhetoric suggests modest changes around the edges won’t be enough for him. Musk’s opposition comes at a particularly inopportune time, after House Republicans mustered the votes and Senate Republicans were just starting to take up the issue in earnest. And it makes it a whole lot harder for the GOP to argue this is somehow fiscally responsible. Musk’s opposition is also a big deal because it provides a high-profile face to the existing conservative concerns about the cost of the package. A handful of Republicans like Paul, Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and House Freedom Caucus members have been making that case, but none of them come close to Musk’s heft. It’s not difficult to see this awakening some of what remains of the GOP’s recent tea party past. Similar to the December showdown, on Tuesday we saw all kinds of Republicans suddenly feel compelled to reckon with Musk’s attack. A few critics and skeptics of the bill doubled down. It remains to be seen how much pull Musk’s efforts have with individual senators, given his and DOGE’s unpopularity and the fact that he’s no longer officially part of the administration. He’s also a relative newcomer to conservative politics, and his effort to go at Trump could alienate some of his newfound allies. But polling also shows he retains significant pull within the GOP base; a late-April New York Times/Siena College poll showed 77% of Republicans had a favorable opinion of him, and 44% were “very favorable.” He has also proven willing to unleash many tens of millions of dollars on political campaigns. It certainly throws a wrench in the GOP’s attempts to unify behind Trump’s legislative agenda. Republicans already have narrow majorities, especially in the House. But they seemed to be moving past the gridlock that dogged their side during the Biden administration (see: ousting then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy), thanks to the common causes that are loyalty to Trump and their fear of running afoul of him. Now, though, they have two rather unwieldy and unpredictable billionaires with relatively little legislative know-how, huge followings and unsteady whims to worry about. (A case in point: Musk called the package a “pork-filled Congressional spending bill,” but the reason the bill is expensive isn’t earmarks or “pork,” but rather the tax-cut extension.) And those two figures’ goals increasingly appear to be at cross purposes. It was always a somewhat uneasy marriage between Trump and Musk. Musk’s whole thing is cutting spending and reining in the federal government; he’s basically fashioned himself a throwback to the tea party conservatives of the 2010 era. But that’s never been much of a priority for Trump, who talks about cutting spending but rarely makes it a priority. (Even while saying goodbye to Musk last week, Trump decided to talk about abolishing the debt ceiling.) The two seemed to meet in the middle because Musk’s efforts to wreck shop with his DOGE cuts overlapped with Trump’s efforts to transform the federal government into a more Trump-loyal institution. But DOGE quickly became a liability, and now the two men’s relationship is being tested. Musk hasn’t been terribly subtle about the fact that he disagrees with much of what Trump is doing. In a CBS News interview that aired Sunday, he suggested he was holding back on saying too much. “I’m a little stuck in a bind, where I’m like, well, I don’t want to, you know, speak up against the administration,” Musk said, “but I also don’t want to take responsibility for everything this administration’s doing.” In the course of a few days, Musk decided not just to speak up, but to severely complicate the GOP’s legislative prospects. And to the extent he plans to keep wielding his influence like this, the party now needs contend with two huge variables that can suddenly change the calculation at any given time. And it was hard enough with just one.