In this political bellwether, voters feel the impacts of Trump’s policies

Todd Harder voted for Donald Trump and knows firsthand his community would benefit if the president can deliver on his promise of a quick American manufacturing renaissance. But Harder doesn’t believe he will ever see it. The early evidence, Harder said, is that the tariffs and tough trade talk Trump says will bring back factory boom times is instead leading to hard times. “My generation, it’s not going to (positively) impact. It is going to hurt us,” said Harder, the owner of ProDart, which makes wooden darts and dartboards in an Allentown industrial park. “In the future, for the next generation, it might possibly help them out. But it’s impacting the people that are here now today … in a not-good way.” That skeptical short-term take — from a Trump supporter — is worth noting and tracking: Trump’s political standing is down from Inauguration Day, and the economic tumult caused by the tariffs debate is part of his slip. Harder lives in a Pennsylvania and American bellwether: the 7th Congressional District. Trump won it just barely in 2024, and the House seat flipped from Blue to Red. It is already a top target in the 2026 midterms. The Lehigh Valley holds icon status in the history of American manufacturing. Bethlehem Steel and Western Electric were among the valley giants back in the day; Mack Trucks and Martin Guitars are today. Crayola crayons is an Easton landmark whose lineage traces back to a turn-of-the-century company that made the red barn paint that dots the rural countryside. The globalization and trade debates that animate Trump today have defined the Lehigh Valley economy for a generation now. There were more than 66,000 factory jobs in the valley in 1990, just shy of 55,000 a decade later and a low of 35,000 in 2011. By the end of 2024, manufacturing employment had climbed back to 41,000. It has been flat in the four months Trump has been back in the White House. Harder and ProDart have a tiny place in those statistics. Fourteen employees at its peak; five now, including Harder’s parents. “We’re kind of slow right now,” said Harder. “Money is tight. People are complaining rent is really high. A lot of places, just the cash flow isn’t there. So, I think everybody’s starting to become a little more conservative on spending right now.” Harder only occasionally sources materials from foreign suppliers, so tariffs aren’t really a direct hit on his business. But he says other local manufacturers are hurting, to varying degrees, and the tumult of the tariffs debate has hurt consumer confidence. “Six to a seven, but not more,” is the grade Harder gives Trump on the economy at four months. “He just got into it. See where it pans out.” Harder just got into it, too. He is 55, but his 2024 vote for Trump was the first time he had cast a ballot. Yes, he was mad about inflation. He thought Trump’s tax policies would be better for his family and his business. But that is not what pulled Harder off the sidelines after skipping every previous election since he was first eligible to vote in 1988. “There’s no law and order anymore. The smoking marijuana stuff — that is getting out of hand,” Harder said. “Go watch TV. You have men kissing and everything else and all the transgenders. You didn’t have that before. You know, there is a God. I’m Catholic.” He says there are too many Puerto Rican flags around Allentown, too few schools teaching cursive and beginning with the Pledge of Allegiance. “I was just so disgusted,” Harder said. “Just how everything in this world, you know it is going to crap.” The Trump campaign and its allies made a methodical, concerted effort to target infrequent or unreliable voters like Harder; immigration, transgender rights and attacks on “woke” Democrats were key pieces of that strategy. His decision to vote — to join the MAGA culture wars — also benefited the 7th District’s new Republican congressman, Ryan Mackenzie. He defeated the Democratic incumbent by just 4,062 votes. But Harder isn’t sure whether he will vote again in 2026. “If I feel that things are running properly, yes,” he said. “If I don’t see anything changing, then it really doesn’t matter what my vote is.” The Lehigh Valley was a repeat stop for our All Over the Map project in the 2024 cycle, and Harder is among the additional voters we hope to stay in touch with through 2026 and beyond, to track the first two years of the Trump term through their eyes and experiences. Michelle Rios is another, a battleground voter on the other side of the MAGA cultural divide. Rios helps run a diversity, equity and inclusion program at a local college, and she gets a mix of angry and amused at how her work is described by Trump and his allies. A normal day, she said, likely includes financial aid advice to a minority student, maybe help navigating campus clubs or social events. Of late, she might be dealing with rumors about lost funding or immigration crackdowns. “I wanted to help out college students the same way that I was helped out because it made an incredible difference in my life and in my journey,” Rios said in an interview in Bethlehem. She was a student during the first Trump term and recalls always being on edge. She is determined this time to keep calm, while figuring out whether her college program will be impacted, or whether nonprofits she works with in the bustling Latino community here will be impacted because Trump officials view their grants as related to diversity. “It just instills fear, and I think that is essentially what the last few months have done to people,” Rios said. “So I try to focus on the action part. Like, this happened, so now what can we do about it?” The action part, to Rios, includes finding ways to win back the growing number of Latinos who left the Democrats to support Trump and other Republicans. “Sometimes it has a bit to do with Latino culture,” she said. “Sometimes we don’t want to see women in a certain position.” Another effort: “Just trying to encourage less social media. … I think that’s also what made a big difference.” Rios let out long sigh when asked what she would say if she had a minute with President Trump. “I don’t think I would want a minute,” was her first response. Then, “There’s a lot of things that come to mind, but I just don’t think I would know where to start.” Gerard Babb has no such hesitation. He would ask President Trump to try to save his job. The irony, he says, is that he sees Trump as at least partially to blame for the fact he will likely lose it soon. Babb works in the assembly line at Mack Trucks, a major employer in the area. But the company announced recently it would slash 250 to 350 jobs from its 2,600-member workforce here. It cited Trump tariffs as a factor, saying the president was softening demand. The United Auto Workers and others, including Rep. Mackenzie, suggest the company is using Trump as a foil and has long wanted to shift some production to Mexico. “I believe they played a part,” Babb said of the Trump tariffs. “Donald Trump could have had a little bit more finesse instead of using a blanket policy over everything.” Babb’s first vote was for Barack Obama in 2008. But he switched to Mitt Romney in 2012 and then cast three votes for Trump. “A B+” is how he grades Trump at the four-month mark, despite his jitters about losing his job. But every day is more stressful, as Babb checks seniority charts to see if normal turnover might somehow save him by the time Mack announces an exact number and timing. “I was a 171 when they first announced,” Babb said. “Now I am at 218. … If I can get about 350 it would be perfect. But as long as I am past 250, I have a chance.” Babb voted for Mackenzie, too, but says it is far too early to commit to his 2026 midterm vote. The strength of the economy is his top issue, and he said Mackenzie would help his chances if Congress eliminated taxes on overtime or did other things that would help his family. Babb said he is open to voting for the Democrat for Congress if that candidate had better economic policies. “I haven’t seen anything yet,” Babb said when asked about the White House promise to quickly boost manufacturing. “I would love to see more manufacturing jobs in the area.” Most of his time now, though, is divided between keeping on top of the layoffs news at work and then trying to shake the stress and spend time with his wife and three children. “It’s stressful that I am (likely) going to be out of work in the near future,” Babb said. “Because I want to provide for my wife and kids. It is the uncertainty that really gets to me.”