How Trump’s megabill transfers wealth in the US

It took intense lobbying from President Donald Trump, an all-nighter, and a vote on a bill for which many people did not yet have a clear grasp of the final changes, but House Republicans got it done this week. They passed their version of the “one big, beautiful bill,” a behemoth that pairs tax cuts with new provisions that will push people off Medicaid and food assistance. Low-income Americans will feel the effect of changes to aid programs, while the wealthy will see most of the windfall from tax cuts, according to multiple assessments. Democrats argue the tradeoff is cruel, but Republicans say it’s necessary to deliver on Trump’s economic agenda and to root out waste and fraud, protecting the programs for those who need them. What the House passed is an opening bid as the process now shifts to the US Senate, which must pass its own version of a tax and spending bill. Senators will be gauging the public reaction to the House bill and what critics have said is a reverse transfer of wealth, much of which will be put on the nation’s credit card in the form of deficit spending. Here’s a look at how the “one big, beautiful bill” takes benefits from lower-income Americans in order to cut taxes, primarily for the wealthy. What is the basic math of the bill? How much does the bill cut in taxes? How much does it cut in spending? The House’s tax and spending cuts package is certainly a “big” bill in terms of its impact. We don’t have all the final figures yet because the Congressional Budget Office is still working on the analysis of the final version of the bill, which contained some significant last-minute changes. But CBO’s initial estimates found that the package’s tax measures would increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over a decade, while other provisions would cut nearly $1 trillion in federal support for Medicaid and food stamps over that period. Medicaid, which provides health insurance to low-income Americans, would face the largest cuts in the package, with CBO projecting a nearly $700 billion reduction in federal spending. Meanwhile, food stamps, formally known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, would face a $267 billion cut in federal support. The bill would also increase spending for defense, immigration enforcement and homeland security, while pulling back on federal spending in some other areas. How much does it add to the national debt? The national debt is more than $37 trillion. How much would this bill add to that incredible figure? Overall, the bill would add $3.1 trillion to the nation’s debt, including interest, over the next decade, according to an early independent analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. We are still waiting for the final word from CBO. Long-term budget projections are notoriously difficult, and House Republicans were altering the provisions up until just before they passed the bill. Plus, things could change when senators start working on their version. Would people notice these tax cuts? Most of the tax cuts in the bill aren’t exactly cuts, but rather extensions of tax cuts from Trump’s first term. Will most Americans see their tax bill go down if something like this bill becomes law? Currently, if Congress doesn’t act, most Americans would see their taxes increase because the individual income tax cuts from the 2017 bill are set to expire at the end of this year. The House package would make permanent essentially all of those provisions. However, many people may not notice that aspect of the legislation since “all it’s going to do is extend the tax system that they’ve come to know and hate,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. But here’s the impact the bill would have compared with Congress doing nothing: On average, the majority of Americans would see a tax cut next year — more than 80%, in fact, according to the center’s analysis of the tax provisions. The average household would see their federal taxes drop by about $2,900. However, that doesn’t include the impact of the spending cuts, which we’ll get to in a minute. Where does the money from the tax cuts go? What do we know about how much goes to wealthier taxpayers and how much goes to middle-class and lower-wage taxpayers? Higher-income taxpayers would come out ahead, with 60% of the tax cuts going to the top 20%, who have incomes of at least $217,000, next year and more than a third going to the top 5%, or those who earn $460,000 or more, according to the center. The following numbers show how the rich would get the biggest boost in their after-tax income compared to others. Those in the top 20% would see an average tax cut of $12,660 next year, increasing their after-tax income by 3.4%. But again, that’s compared with current law, in which Trump’s first-term tax cuts are expiring. Middle-income earners, those making between about $67,000 and $119,000, would get a tax break of $1,840, bumping up their after-tax income by 2.4%, while those in the lowest bracket, who earn less than about $35,000, would get a tax cut of $160, nudging up their after-tax income by 0.8%. Individual circumstances will also play a major role, since the tax package provides targeted breaks for certain groups. For instance, because of the temporary elimination of taxes on tips and overtime, those who receive those types of compensation could see more tax relief than other workers making the same income. Are there any accounting tricks in here? There’s an important reason Trump’s 2017 tax cuts now need to be extended. In 2017, lawmakers were able to make it appear like the tax cuts would have less of a long-term effect on the deficit and national debt by making them temporary. They bet, correctly, that this year’s Congress would prioritize either extending the tax cuts or making them permanent. Are there any similar accounting tricks in this bill? There certainly are! House Republicans included many of Trump’s campaign promises in the bill but made them temporary to reduce their cost. The elimination of taxes on tips and overtime would be in effect from 2025 through 2028, as would be the $4,000 boost in the standard deduction for senior citizens, which aims to fulfill Trump’s promise to end taxes on Social Security benefits. Plus, the deduction of up to $10,000 in interest on certain car loans also expires after 2028. Several of the package’s business tax measures — which are factored into the tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans — are also temporary. That’s one reason why the bill is not as advantageous to the super-rich in later years. Separately — and this is not a matter of accounting, but rather of politics — new work requirements for Medicaid, which are expected to push millions of people out of the program and likely leave them uninsured, wouldn’t kick in until the end of 2026, which is notably after the midterm election. However, states would have the option of implementing the mandate earlier in the year. Making all the temporary individual and business tax provisions permanent would add $5.1 trillion to the nation’s debt, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s early analysis. What about the spending cuts? The bill partially offsets tax cuts by slashing Medicaid coverage and food stamps. How does that factor into the impact the bill will have on the country? This is key to understanding the bill’s overall effect on Americans’ wallets, particularly on those who are lower on the income ladder. The deep spending cuts to Medicaid and food stamps will result in millions of people losing access to their health insurance and food assistance, leaving them far worse off financially. The measures, particularly introducing work requirements to Medicaid and expanding them in the food stamps program, will not only be felt by the low-income adults that the Republicans are targeting, but also children, senior citizens, people with disabilities and others, experts say. The Penn Wharton Budget Model crunched the numbers, taking into consideration both the tax cuts and spending reductions on Medicaid and food stamps, as well as the changes to the federal student loan program, which aim to limit the federal role in student borrowing. It found that the lowest-income Americans, making up to about $17,000, would see their incomes fall by $820, on average, next year – after taking into account taxes and certain government benefits. That’s a drop of 14.6%, on average. The next group, with incomes between $17,000 and $51,000, would lose $430 in income, or 1.1%, on average. Middle-income households would fare better, receiving a tax break of $840, or a 1.1% gain in income, on average. These taxpayers have incomes between $51,000 and $93,000. But the highest earners, those making more than $174,000, would enjoy bigger income boosts, of just over $12,000, or 2.6%, on average. “For lower income people, what they are losing in Medicaid, Affordable Care Act premium support and food stamps more than dominates any type of benefits from taxes on tips and other tax cuts,” said Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. “And they’re not going to make it back through economic growth.” What happens next? This bill is probably unlikely to pass the Senate in its current form. What do we know, if anything, about how Senate Republicans might change it? Changes seem like a certainty. This bill is being passed under a budget reconciliation process that allows Republicans a way around filibuster rules. That means they can make their megabill law with only Republican votes in the Senate, although they only have three votes to spare with Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Some GOP senators want more spending cuts. Others are worried about the Medicaid changes. One wants a more generous tax credit for children. Plus, non-budget-related items could be stripped by the Senate parliamentarian. Assuming something ultimately passes the Senate, it would then have to go back to the House. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have shown an ability to get things over the finish line. But this will be a major legislative test for new Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Is anybody seriously talking about solving the debt problem? Despite the cuts, the bill still adds to the national debt. Is there any active talk across party lines about how to deal with Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security spending, which the government says are unsustainable? The short answer is no. The bill we’re talking about right now has more tax cuts than spending cuts, which is why it adds to the deficit. The things driving deficit spending are the growth in Medicare and Social Security as baby boomers age. Both programs’ trust funds could run out of the money they need to pay full benefits in a decade or so. Yet neither party is making reform of those programs a top priority, in large part because touching them is politically toxic. Solutions would probably have to be bipartisan. There are plenty of known solutions — things like incremental changes to the retirement age or payroll tax hikes on higher wage earners — but those are not currently being seriously debated. On Medicaid, the GOP answer is the cuts in the bill, but it’s paired with much larger tax cuts.