The president doesn’t control the economy, right? Every election year, that’s the reminder voters get from historians, politicos, journalists and academics of all stripes. It’s practically a cliché — voters make choices based on gas prices and grocery bills, even though those things are largely out of any one politician’s control. The political adage isn’t wrong, per se. It is, in fact, difficult for a single president to drastically improve the economy writ large. But President Donald Trump is proving that a politician can absolutely harm the economy when they lack any regard for the consequences, borne largely by the people who elected them. Tuesday marks the 100th day of Trump’s second term. In those 14 weeks, the president has unleashed an economic agenda so punishing that the only way to understand it in a historical context is not through a lens of policy but of plagues. If the Trump tariffs remain in place, the negative shocks could eclipse the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. While Trump campaigned on a pledge to “immediately bring down prices, starting on Day One,” the White House has made scant progress on that promise beyond a broad executive order demanding federal agencies “deliver emergency price relief.” Trump’s only major economic initiative, a sweeping tariff agenda, amounts to a massive tax increase on American consumers. And it has landed the US at the lonely center of a global trade war — the sole aggressor, lobbing tax bombs at friends and foes alike. The “sell America” trade — in which global investors yank their money out of US assets like the dollar and Treasuries, worried about the country’s stability — was practically unheard of before Trump’s second term. But over the past month, it has helped wipe out trillions in market value. Despite Trump’s tariffs, the US economy remains, by some key metrics, in good shape — unemployment is low and inflation has cooled to around 2.5% this year from a pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in 2022. Of course, unemployment was low and inflation was falling under the Biden administration, too. Economists say gauging the impact of Trump’s tariffs, at least in the near term, will be difficult, in part because consumers have been shopping more to try to get ahead of price increases. That rush of spending may not last. But longer term, the chances of a recession, according to virtually every economic forecaster, are higher now than they were 100 days ago. Estimates vary between a coin flip and 70%. Prediction market Kalshi currently puts the likelihood of a US recession at 57%. Businesses are paralyzed, unsure whether to believe that Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs will stay in place. Consumer confidence — which had held strong even under generationally high inflation during Biden’s term — is wavering. Absent from Trump’s tariff plan is anything that would immediately address the cost-of-living pain that voters overwhelmingly cited as their reason for re-electing him. Much of the public is now angry. A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS found that 59% of the country now believes Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions, up from 51% in March. Tariffs, in particular, are not going over well. Price increases are already being felt, with 60% of US adults saying Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their community. Just 12% said Trump’s agenda has helped to bring prices down. The CNN polling tracks with other readings of the national mood. Consumer sentiment in April hit its fourth-lowest level on records going back to 1952, according to a closely watched University of Michigan survey. Inflation expectations reached their highest level since 1981. While that kind of polling isn’t the kind of “hard data” policymakers typically rely on, the way people feel about the economy matters, especially when it comes to prices. When people expect the economy to sour, they tend to pull back on spending, which slows economic growth. Right now, nearly 70% of Americans think it’s at least somewhat likely the US will go into a recession in the next year, according to the CNN poll. We can see that caution already playing out: Airlines are cutting flights ahead of the summer travel season as fewer people plan trips. Companies are lowering or altogether scrapping their earnings guidance, citing uncertainty around tariffs. Shipments carrying goods from China to the US are expected to fall dramatically in the coming days. According to Ryan Petersen, CEO of logistics conglomerate Flexport, ocean container bookings from China to the United States were down more than 60% industry-wide in the three weeks since the US’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports took effect. Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech on April 2 promised a renaissance of American manufacturing that few outside the MAGA faithful believe is possible, or even preferable. But Trump offered one prediction that day that turned out to be truer than he could have imagined. “This will be an entirely different country in a short period of time,” he said. “It’ll be something, the whole world will be talking about it.”
How to trash an economic superpower in 100 days
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Trump's Economic Policies Raise Concerns Amid Growing Recession Fears"
CNN
5.0
TruthLens AI Summary
As President Donald Trump marks the 100th day of his second term, the implications of his economic policies are unfolding in a manner that is deeply concerning to many economists and voters alike. While it is commonly acknowledged that a president does not have direct control over the economy, Trump's actions have raised alarms about their damaging impact. His administration's aggressive tariff agenda has been described as a significant tax increase on American consumers, placing the United States at the center of a global trade war. This approach has led to a sharp decline in consumer confidence, with a recent CNN poll indicating that 59% of Americans believe Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions. Although some metrics like unemployment remain low, fears of a recession are growing, with predictions estimating the likelihood of an economic downturn at between 50% and 70%. The economic landscape has shifted dramatically in just a few months, with businesses struggling to make decisions amid the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and consumers increasingly feeling the pinch of rising prices.
The repercussions of Trump's tariff policies are already being felt throughout the economy. Reports indicate that consumer sentiment has hit its fourth-lowest level since 1952, with inflation expectations climbing to their highest since 1981. Many Americans are now bracing for a potential recession, with nearly 70% believing it is at least somewhat likely to occur within the next year. Businesses are responding to this climate of uncertainty by cutting flights and lowering earnings guidance, while shipments from China to the US have seen a dramatic decline of over 60% since the tariffs were implemented. Trump's rhetoric about revitalizing American manufacturing has not resonated widely outside his core supporters, and the overall mood reflects a growing discontent among the public regarding the economic trajectory. As the administration's economic strategies continue to unfold, the long-term implications for the US economy remain uncertain, leaving many Americans anxious about their financial future.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article critiques President Donald Trump's economic policies during the first 100 days of his second term, drawing attention to the potential negative impacts on the economy. It highlights the disconnect between a president's promises and the actual economic conditions, emphasizing that while Trump campaigned on reducing prices, his administration's tariff policies may lead to significant economic harm.
Portrayal of Economic Impact
The article paints a dire picture of the economic consequences of Trump's tariff agenda, suggesting that it could result in shocks greater than those experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. This comparison to historical plagues serves to emphasize the severity of the situation, aiming to instill concern among readers about the direction of the economy under Trump's leadership.
Public Sentiment and Political Manipulation
There is an evident attempt to shape public perception regarding Trump's handling of the economy. By framing the tariff policies as a form of self-inflicted harm on American consumers, the article seeks to rally opposition against the president's economic strategy. This narrative suggests that the administration's actions are not only ineffective but detrimental, potentially influencing voter sentiment ahead of future elections.
Concealment of Alternative Narratives
While focusing on the negative aspects of Trump's policies, the article may overlook other factors contributing to the economy's resilience, such as low unemployment and controlled inflation rates. By not providing a balanced view, it could be argued that the piece is attempting to divert attention from any positive developments, thereby reinforcing a negative narrative around the administration.
Manipulative Elements
The article employs strong language and vivid comparisons to evoke emotional responses from readers. The choice of words, such as "punishing" and "massive tax increase," is designed to provoke outrage. This approach raises the article's manipulative potential, as it clearly aims to frame Trump as a villain in the economic narrative.
Historical Context and Broader Implications
By contextualizing Trump's policies within a historical framework of economic crises, the piece suggests that his leadership could lead to long-term damage not only domestically but also on a global scale. The reference to global investors pulling out of US assets hints at potential ramifications for international economic relations and the stability of the US dollar.
Target Audience
The article is likely aimed at readers who are critical of Trump’s administration, particularly those concerned about economic issues. It resonates with communities that prioritize economic stability and are wary of aggressive trade policies.
Market Reactions and Financial Implications
This type of reporting can influence market sentiment, particularly among investors who may react to fears of economic instability. Stocks in sectors heavily impacted by tariffs, such as manufacturing and consumer goods, may experience volatility as a result of this narrative.
Geopolitical Considerations
The article touches on the implications of Trump's trade policies for global power dynamics, suggesting that aggressive tariffs could isolate the US economically. This aspect is relevant in today's climate, where international trade relationships are increasingly scrutinized.
Use of AI in Article Composition
While it is unclear if artificial intelligence was directly used to write this article, the structured argumentation and persuasive language suggest a systematic approach similar to AI-generated content. If AI were involved, it might have focused on amplifying emotional appeal and framing of the narrative to enhance impact.
In conclusion, the article presents a critical view of Trump's economic policies, employing a variety of rhetorical techniques to influence public opinion and voter sentiment. The focus on potential negative outcomes, combined with the omission of positive economic indicators, suggests a deliberate effort to shape perceptions of the administration's effectiveness.