Crystal Palace or Liverpool? Inside Guehi's intriguing summer

Palace signed Marc Guehi, then aged 21, from Chelsea in 2021 for a reported £18m Marc Guehi officially enters the final 12 months of his Crystal Palace contract on Tuesday and interest is building. It's not often a player of his standing, an England international, enters such a zone of ambiguity. As you'd imagine, there are a number of teams keen on taking advantage of the situation. But there is one club who appear to be emerging as strong contenders for the centre-back. BBC Sport reported this month that Liverpool were among the teams interested in signing the 24-year-old. However, there are various factors that will prove crucial in whether Liverpool take steps to formalise their interest. Here's what could make or break a deal that could become one of the most eye-catching of the summer transfer window. Palace's valuation of a player who can leave for nothing next summer will be pivotal. If Liverpool don't view Guehi's price as reasonable, don't be surprised to see them park their interest for 12 months and look to strike a free-transfer agreement. But what represents a reasonable price? For a clue, we should look back to last year when Palace rejected multiple offers from Newcastle - the last of which was worth £65m. Common sense dictates the fee this summer will be lower give the looming contract expiry. But how much lower? There is no official word on what Palace would be prepared to accept for their skipper. They've got to balance it all against the prospect of having Guehi in the heart of their defence next season, and helping them remain competitive in the Premier League. There have been indications, though, that the south London club may be willing accept a deal worth between £40m and £45m. The issue, however, would be whether Liverpool see it that way. Liverpool's preferred profile for a centre-back in recent years has been younger than the Palace centre-back. In 2023 they were interested in Levi Colwill, who was 20 at the time. Last summer Liverpool were in for 18-year-old Leny Yoro, who eventually joined Manchester United. Prior to their interest in Guehi this summer they explored a move for Dean Huijsen, 19. With that in mind, Liverpool will be looking for what they judge as value to change their approach. With Liverpool set to sell centre-back Jarell Quansah to Bayer Leverkusen in a deal worth up to £35m, there is logic to the thought the Merseysiders could aim to break even in any formal bid for Guehi. Perhaps they'd be willing to pay a little extra over the money they recoup for Quansah - but not by much. It's a delicate balance. If Palace value Guehi at a price the Premier League champions deem fair, and Liverpool enter the discussions at a figure the Londoners don't perceive as 'low-balling', then that could open the door towards a successful and amicable negotiation. With that in mind, the first point of formal contact between clubs will likely be crucial towards whether Guehi ends up at Anfield. Even if Palace and Liverpool can agree a fee for Guehi, there remains the question as to whether he plays regularly under Arne Slot. Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate formed a formidable central defensive duo last season as Slot's side lifted the Premier League title. But with Konate's future unclear given he is also entering the final 12 months of his contract, the interest in Guehi adds a further layer of intrigue. Would Guehi be interested in a move to Anfield? That's a no-brainer. Liverpool are one of the most exciting projects in European football. Their summer recruitment, including the £116m acquisition of Florian Wirtz, accentuates their allure. But the reality isn't a simple 'yes' or 'no' answer. For Guehi, the environment he steps into has to be agreeable. You'd imagine Guehi would like some level of indication of his role in Slot's plans before he gives serious consideration to a move north. He is a regular for Palace and is their captain. With European football - pending Uefa'smulti-club ownership investigation- to look forward to with Palace and the prospect of joining Liverpool or another leading European club on a free transfer next season, seeing out his contract has its attractions. But so does joining Liverpool - provided he plays. You'd imagine Guehi's international aspirations will be a factor in his final decision, too, particularly in a World Cup year. This time last year Guehi was emerging as one of England's stars of Euro 2024. Fast forward 12 months and there is less certainty regarding his international future. Sir Gareth Southgate has left, Lee Carsley has returned to the Under-21s and Thomas Tuchel is in charge. There's some ambiguity surrounding Guehi's place in Tuchel's set-up. With that in mind, you'd imagine a successful season at Liverpool - and his first steps in the Champions League - could help solidify his place in England's plans before the 2026 World Cup. But if Guehi is left with the impression that he'll spend the season playing second fiddle to Van Dijk and Konate, then the transfer may hit an unsurmountable obstacle. If the price is right for all parties, and circumstances acceptable for Guehi, then a switch to Anfield has a good chance of gathering momentum. Of course, Palace - if there is no prospect of extending Guehi's current deal - will hope for interest from other clubs to maximise their selling power. There are certainly other sides monitoring Guehi. Arsenal, for instance, have a concrete interest in the centre-back. But the Van Dijk-Konate conundrum would, arguably, be even more complex at Emirates Stadium with William Saliba and Gabriel in possession of the shirts in central defence. Arsenal have made initial enquiries into a potential move for Guehi but have now turned their attentions to Valencia centre-back Cristhian Mosquera. Tottenham tried and failed to sign Guehi during the final hours of the January window and retain an interest. Chelsea, who have a 20% sell-on clause for Guehi's new transfer, also explored the possibility of luring their former academy player back to Stamford Bridge in the winter. Then there's Newcastle, who remain keen on trying to complete a deal that they so agonisingly failed to get over the line last summer. But when the champions come knocking it's hard to turn a blind eye - this year or next.