They seem to come out of nowhere. A young man on a rooftop shooting at Donald Trump. An intruder smashing the head of Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer. An arsonist setting fire to the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion. And someone dressed as a police officer going to the homes of Minnesota lawmakers and opening fire.
The attacks appear unpredictable, randomly located across the country and using different methods to threaten local and national politicians. Butas members of Congress demand new protections, experts say there are ways to identify threats.
On the surface there are similarities: personal grievances and an anger toward politicians for their perceived role in causing problems in society or failing to help. David DePapetold a jury in federal courtthat his political beliefs and conspiracy theories ultimately inspired him to initiate the attack. Prosecutors said he had a plan to take Speaker Pelosi hostage and DePapesaid he was “surprised and confused”when she was not home.
Ryan Wesley Routh, who is accused of lying in wait for Trump on the president’s West Palm Beach golf course,allegedly left a letter saying Trump“ended relations with Iran like a child and now the Middle East has unraveled.”
Cody Balmer, charged with setting fire to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s residence,told 911 operatorshe was angry at Shapiro, who is Jewish, for what he believed were Shapiro’s views on the war in Gaza. Balmer said Shapiro needed to “stop having my friends killed,” and “our people have been put through too much by that monster,” according to search warrants.
And Vance Boelter, arrested in the killings ofMinnesota Rep. Melissa Hortmanand her husband Mark, and the shootings of stateSen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette, had a list ofmore than 45 state and federal officials, an affidavit said. Acting US Attorney for the District of Minnesota Joseph H. Thompson said Boelter had the “intent to kill” other Minnesota politicians, but it was still early in the investigation. “They were all elected officials. They were all Democrats,” he said. “Beyond that, I think it’s just way too speculative for anyone that’s reviewed these materials to know and to say what was motivating him in terms of ideology or specific issues.”
An outlier is Thomas Matthew Crooks who shot at Trump during a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania, last July, before being killed by Secret Service agents. In addition to Trump, he had looked online for information aboutthen President Biden and other leaders of both the Republicans and Democrats. He had looked up the details of the upcoming Democratic National Convention as well as Trump’s rally and discovered Trump planned to appear just an hour’s drive from his home. In his case, officials have speculated, he simply wanted a high-profile target, and it mattered less who it was.
Often when people feel aggrieved, they look for others to justify their feelings or for a sense of community.
A recent FBI report on preventing and countering violent extremism in America notes “(T)here is no meaningful demographic profile of individuals prone to radicalization or to extremist action.”
The“Beyond Belief: Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism in America”report from the bureau’s Behavioral Analysis Unit addresses the push, pull and personal factors that drive peopletoward violence. Much of it looks at how people can be pulled toward extremism by online interactions sucking them in to supporting more violent ideologies like radical Islam as espoused by ISIS or antisemitism.
Individual attackers don’t necessarily make those kinds of online or personal connections that could perhaps allow them to be identified, and their plans addressed before an attack is committed. But there can be other telltale signs.
Mary Ellen O’Toole, a retired FBI profiler, told CNN: “One of the recognized pathways to violence, especially in cases of single offender terrorists is ‘overvalued ideas.’ These are ideas that are not delusions but beliefs by the terrorist that are unshakable, unreasonable (to us), extreme and can require extreme action (the offender believes it requires extreme action), and he is the only person that can handle the action he decides to take.”
O’Toole continued: “These offenders’ overvalued beliefs can become reinforced over time. Logic and persuasion do not work to change their minds.”
In the case of Boelter, who has not yet entered a plea in response to federal charges including murder, O’Toole looked at how hegave up climbing the corporate ladder in favor of venturesthat included establishing an armed security firm in Minnesota and a fishing and farming company in central Africa where he pronounced he had a mission to end world hunger.
“There’s an arrogance about this guy that makes me think he’s been able to juggle all of these controversial jobs and titles and still be able to get appointed to the Minnesota governor’s Workforce Development Board,” she said. “Does he admit to himself that he is a loser, maybe? The failures across the board, across different industries has made him bitter. There’s a self-righteousness in what he’s done.” Ina text sent to family members, Boelter said: “Dad went to war last night …” according to a federal affidavit.
Routh, the alleged would-be assassin on the golf course, also expressed grandiose ideas. In an apparently self-published book,he wrote to Iran, “You are free to assassinate Trump as well as me for that error in judgment and the dismantling of” the Iran nuclear deal.
Of course, the United States is no stranger to political violence — at the top level, four of 47 US presidencies have been ended by assassination.
The US Secret Service established a National Threat Assessment Center in 1998 to study why individuals target public officials, as well as other threats. They’re now hoping to devise a guide from a quarter-century of research to share with local police and prosecutors across the country to train communities to spot warning signs, the NTAC’s chief Dr. Lina Alathari, who holds a Ph.D. in cognitive neuropsychology, and assistant chief Steven Driscoll told CNN.
“We know the warning signs, we know the public observes these signs, and bystander reporting works if people are given an avenue to report concerns,” Alathari and Driscoll said in an email. “It’s a very different mindset from a criminal investigation — we’re not trying to gather evidence to prosecute; we’re trying to gather evidence to show if the person poses a risk of harm and if they do, what can we do to intervene?”
Critical to the prevention of these attacks is the overwhelming opinion of profilers and investigators that people do not just “snap.” Instead, many plan and train meticulously and even give hints of what they’re intending to do.
Crooks, who opened fire about 150 yards from the stage at Trump’s rally,visited the location twiceandresearched how far away Lee Harvey Oswald waswhen he shot President John F. Kennedy. Investigators believehe flew a drone over the areathat could have given him information about where to place himself. Hepracticed at a gun rangethe day before the attack.
Months before he was detained on Trump’s golf course,Routh left a boxwith someone containing ammunition, phones and letters among various other items, prosecutors said in a court filing. A letter addressed to “The World” that was opened after his arrest said: “This was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump but I failed you.” Prosecutors said cell phone data showed Routh near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and the golf course “multiple days and times” between August 18 and September 15, the day he was arrested. He had also prepared at the golf course with bags hung on the fence with armored plates inside able to withstand shots from the pistols Secret Service agents carry, creating “nothing short of a sniper position,” prosecutor Mark Dispoto said. He had a clear shot to the 6th hole 100 feet away, when his rifle was seen by a Secret Service agent.
DePape had a hammer and Balmer had Molotov cocktails when they arrived at their targets’ homes, prosecutors said, but the attacks appeared more opportunistic.
In Minnesota however, Boelter had “extensively planned his stalking, murders, and attempted murders,” according to an affidavit filed by the FBI. He had spent time assembling the police officer disguise he used and attached a “police” license plate and emergency vehicle-style flashing lights to an SUV, it said. He was wearing a hyperrealistic silicone mask to hide his identity.
“Voluminous writings” were found in multiple notebooks in his house and car, the FBI said, with the names of the dozens of Minnesota state and federal public officials, and personal information like addresses and names of family members.
These high-profile attacks have all taken place since the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol. That day, rioters broke into the Capitol and hunted for then Vice President Mike Pence and members of Congress fulfilling their duty to certify the election win of President Biden. A gallows was erected outside as people chanted “Hang Mike Pence” while inside others called out for then Speaker Nancy Pelosi and invaded her office.
The greatest number of concerning statements and direct threats to members of Congress investigated by the US Capitol Police came in 2021, at 9,625. There was a fall in 2022, but the trend has increased again, and 9,474 cases were addressed in 2024 by the USCP’s Threat Assessment Section, the USCP said.
Observers have pointed to the rising divisions in national politics beginning with the tea party dissidents during Barack Obama’s presidency and ongoing ultra-partisanship as well as the often violent rhetoric used by prominent figures including the president as factors that could lead to attacks.
With Routh, Balmer and Boelter all in custody and facing trials, politicians, profilers and the public may learn how much this era influenced their alleged attacks.