It may be spring, but it’s not too soon to look ahead to summer weather, especially when El Niño – a player in last year’s especially brutal summer – is rapidly weakening and will all but vanish by the time the season kicks into gear. El Niño’s disappearing act doesn’t mean relief from the heat. Not when the world is heating up due to human-driven climate change. In fact, forecasters think it could mean the opposite. What this summer’s weather could look like El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. When the water gets cooler than average, it’s a La Niña. Either phase can have an effect on weather around the globe. By June, forecasters expect those ocean temperatures to hover close to normal, marking a so-called neutral phase, before La Niña builds in early summer, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. But the strength of El Niño or La Niña’s influence on US weather isn’t uniform and varies greatly based on the strength of the phenomena and the season itself. The influence of El Niño or La Niña on US weather isn’t as clear-cut in the summer as it is in the winter, especially during a transition between the two phases, said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center. Temperature differences between the tropics and North America are more extreme in the winter, L’Heureux explained. This allows the jet stream to become quite strong and influential, reliably sending storms into certain parts of the US. In the summer, the difference in temperature between the two regions isn’t as significant and the obvious influence on US weather wanes. But we can look back at what happened during similar summers to get a glimpse of what could come this summer. In short: It’s not cool. The summer of 2016 was one of the hottest on record for the Lower 48. La Niña conditions were in place by midsummer and followed a very strong El Niño winter. Summer 2020 followed a similar script: La Niña conditions formed midsummer after a weak El Niño winter but still produced one of the hottest summers on record and the most active hurricane season on record. Then there’s the fact that these climate phenomena are playing out in a warming world, raising the ceiling on the extreme heat potential. “This obviously isn’t our grandmother’s transition out of El Niño – we’re in a much warmer world so the impacts will be different,” L’Heureux, said. “We’re seeing the consequences of climate change.” Current summer temperature outlooks for the US are certainly bringing the heat. Above-average temperatures are forecast over nearly every square mile of the Lower 48. Only portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana have an equal chance of encountering near normal, above- or below-normal temperatures. A huge portion of the West is likely to have warmer conditions than normal. This forecast tracks with decades of climate trends, according to L’Heureux. Summers have warmed more in the West than in any other region of the US since the early 1990s, according to data from NOAA. Phoenix is a prime example. The city’s average July temperature last year was an unheard-of 102.7 degrees, making it the hottest month on record for any US city. It was also the deadliest year on record for heat in Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located. Forecasts also show a worrying precipitation trend for parts of the West. Large sections of the West and the central US are likely to be drier than normal. This dryness, combined with above-normal heat, which only amplifies the dryness, could be a recipe for new or worsening drought. Wetter than normal conditions are in the forecast from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. Stormy weather could be a consistent companion for much of the East – but whether it comes from typical rain and thunderstorms or tropical activity won’t be known for months. A brutal summer also predicted in the water Heat isn’t the only threat to look out for. The strengthening La Niña conditions, coupled with ocean temperatures which have been at record highs for over a year, could supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season. A warming world generates more fuel for more tropical activity and stronger storms. La Niña tends to produce favorable atmospheric conditions to allow storms to form and hold together in the Atlantic. Early this month, forecasters at Colorado State University released their most active initial forecast ever. “We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the group said in a news release.
An El Niño-less summer is coming. Here’s what that could mean for the US
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Forecast Predicts Hot and Dry Summer for U.S. Amid Weakening El Niño"
CNN
8.5
TruthLens AI Summary
As summer approaches, the absence of El Niño, a climate pattern known for warmer ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is raising concerns about potential weather extremes in the United States. Forecasters predict that, by June, ocean temperatures will stabilize, leading to a neutral phase before transitioning into La Niña conditions later in the summer. Unlike winter, where the influences of these climate patterns are more pronounced, the summer's impact on U.S. weather is less predictable, especially during this transitional phase. Climate scientists, including Michelle L’Heureux from the Climate Prediction Center, emphasize that the temperature differentials between the tropics and North America are less severe in summer, which reduces the jet stream's ability to direct storms effectively. Historical data indicates that summers following strong El Niño winters have often been characterized by extreme heat and active hurricane seasons, suggesting that this year could follow a similar trajectory.
Current forecasts predict above-average temperatures across nearly all of the continental U.S., particularly in the West, where summers have warmed more significantly than in other regions since the 1990s. Phoenix exemplifies this trend, with its average July temperature reaching an unprecedented 102.7 degrees last year, marking it as one of the hottest months recorded in U.S. history. Alongside rising temperatures, a concerning trend of decreased precipitation is expected in large portions of the West and central U.S., potentially exacerbating drought conditions. In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions may prevail from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, leading to stormy weather throughout the eastern states. Furthermore, the strengthening La Niña conditions, coupled with record-high ocean temperatures, could heighten the Atlantic hurricane season's activity, forecasters warn, indicating a heightened risk for major hurricanes impacting the U.S. coastline and the Caribbean. This combination of extreme heat and increased tropical activity presents a multifaceted challenge for the upcoming summer season.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article provides an analysis of the potential weather conditions in the U.S. this summer, emphasizing the absence of El Niño and its implications. The discussion revolves around how the weakening of El Niño, a significant climate pattern, could lead to unexpected weather outcomes despite the ongoing effects of climate change.
Purpose and Intentions Behind the Article
The article aims to inform the public about the anticipated weather for the summer, particularly in light of the diminishing influence of El Niño, which was a factor in last year's extreme heat. By explaining the complexities of climate patterns and their varying impacts, the piece seeks to raise awareness about climate change and its long-term effects on weather conditions. The intention here could be to prepare the audience for potential heatwaves or unusual weather patterns, fostering a sense of urgency regarding climate issues.
Public Perception and Messaging
This news piece seems to create a perception of caution about the upcoming summer. It suggests that while El Niño may not be a factor, rising temperatures due to climate change could lead to extreme heat, echoing concerns from previous years. The article implicitly encourages readers to think critically about climate change, potentially mobilizing public interest in environmental issues.
Hidden Aspects or Information
There does not appear to be any overtly hidden information in the article; rather, it provides a straightforward examination of expected weather conditions. However, the link between weather patterns and climate change might be downplayed for some audiences who may not be as aware of the broader implications of these patterns.
Manipulative Nature of the Article
The manipulative nature of this article is relatively low, primarily because it presents scientific predictions and historical data. However, the language used to describe potential heat can evoke fear or concern, which might be seen as a form of manipulation to prompt action or awareness regarding climate change.
Reliability of the Information
The reliability of the information seems strong, as it is based on predictions from reputable sources such as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The article references historical weather patterns to provide context, which adds to its credibility.
Influence on Society and Economy
Should the predictions hold true, this article could influence public opinion and policy regarding climate change, prompting discussions about preparedness for extreme weather. Economically, sectors sensitive to weather, such as agriculture and energy, might need to adjust their operations in anticipation of high temperatures.
Target Audience
The article likely resonates more with environmentally conscious individuals and communities concerned about climate change. The scientific tone and focus on climate patterns suggest it is aimed at readers interested in environmental issues, scientific data, and the impacts of climate change.
Impact on Financial Markets
From a financial perspective, the article could have implications for stocks related to energy, agriculture, and insurance. Companies in these sectors might see market fluctuations based on anticipated weather conditions and the potential for increased demand for services or products related to heat management.
Global Power Dynamics and Relevance
The article does not directly address global power dynamics, but the implications of climate change can influence geopolitical stability, particularly in regions vulnerable to extreme weather. The discussion aligns with current global conversations about climate action and sustainability.
Use of AI in Article Composition
It is possible that AI models were utilized in drafting this article, especially in structuring the information clearly and coherently. The narrative style may reflect AI's capability to analyze and summarize scientific data effectively, though it does not overly simplify or distort the message.
Conclusion
This news article serves to inform and alert readers about the upcoming summer weather while linking it to broader climate concerns. It presents reliable information but does so in a way that emphasizes the urgency of addressing climate change. The article appears to be non-manipulative yet persuasive in its messaging.