It may be spring, but it’s not too soon to look ahead to summer weather, especially when El Niño – a player in last year’s especially brutal summer – is rapidly weakening and will all but vanish by the time the season kicks into gear. El Niño’s disappearing act doesn’t mean relief from the heat. Not when the world is heating up due to human-driven climate change. In fact, forecasters think it could mean the opposite. What this summer’s weather could look like El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. When the water gets cooler than average, it’s a La Niña. Either phase can have an effect on weather around the globe. By June, forecasters expect those ocean temperatures to hover close to normal, marking a so-called neutral phase, before La Niña builds in early summer, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. But the strength of El Niño or La Niña’s influence on US weather isn’t uniform and varies greatly based on the strength of the phenomena and the season itself. The influence of El Niño or La Niña on US weather isn’t as clear-cut in the summer as it is in the winter, especially during a transition between the two phases, said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center. Temperature differences between the tropics and North America are more extreme in the winter, L’Heureux explained. This allows the jet stream to become quite strong and influential, reliably sending storms into certain parts of the US. In the summer, the difference in temperature between the two regions isn’t as significant and the obvious influence on US weather wanes. But we can look back at what happened during similar summers to get a glimpse of what could come this summer. In short: It’s not cool. The summer of 2016 was one of the hottest on record for the Lower 48. La Niña conditions were in place by midsummer and followed a very strong El Niño winter. Summer 2020 followed a similar script: La Niña conditions formed midsummer after a weak El Niño winter but still produced one of the hottest summers on record and the most active hurricane season on record. Then there’s the fact that these climate phenomena are playing out in a warming world, raising the ceiling on the extreme heat potential. “This obviously isn’t our grandmother’s transition out of El Niño – we’re in a much warmer world so the impacts will be different,” L’Heureux, said. “We’re seeing the consequences of climate change.” Current summer temperature outlooks for the US are certainly bringing the heat. Above-average temperatures are forecast over nearly every square mile of the Lower 48. Only portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana have an equal chance of encountering near normal, above- or below-normal temperatures. A huge portion of the West is likely to have warmer conditions than normal. This forecast tracks with decades of climate trends, according to L’Heureux. Summers have warmed more in the West than in any other region of the US since the early 1990s, according to data from NOAA. Phoenix is a prime example. The city’s average July temperature last year was an unheard-of 102.7 degrees, making it the hottest month on record for any US city. It was also the deadliest year on record for heat in Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located. Forecasts also show a worrying precipitation trend for parts of the West. Large sections of the West and the central US are likely to be drier than normal. This dryness, combined with above-normal heat, which only amplifies the dryness, could be a recipe for new or worsening drought. Wetter than normal conditions are in the forecast from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. Stormy weather could be a consistent companion for much of the East – but whether it comes from typical rain and thunderstorms or tropical activity won’t be known for months. A brutal summer also predicted in the water Heat isn’t the only threat to look out for. The strengthening La Niña conditions, coupled with ocean temperatures which have been at record highs for over a year, could supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season. A warming world generates more fuel for more tropical activity and stronger storms. La Niña tends to produce favorable atmospheric conditions to allow storms to form and hold together in the Atlantic. Early this month, forecasters at Colorado State University released their most active initial forecast ever. “We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the group said in a news release.
An El Niño-less summer is coming. Here’s what that could mean for the US
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Forecast Predicts Hot and Dry Summer Ahead for the U.S. Amidst Weakening El Niño"
CNN
7.7
TruthLens AI Summary
As summer approaches, the absence of El Niño, which had a significant impact on last year's weather patterns, raises concerns about the upcoming season in the United States. While El Niño, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is dissipating, the effects of climate change continue to exacerbate global temperatures. Meteorologists are predicting that this summer could be one of the hottest on record, with above-average temperatures expected across nearly all of the continental U.S. The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipates a neutral phase in ocean temperature by June, followed by the emergence of La Niña conditions later in the summer. However, the influence of these climate phenomena on U.S. weather, particularly during the summer months, is less predictable compared to winter, as temperature gradients between the tropics and North America are not as pronounced. This unpredictability makes it challenging to forecast specific weather patterns, but historical data suggests a trend towards extreme heat events during similar climatic transitions.
The projections for this summer indicate significant temperature increases, particularly in the western United States, which has experienced the most pronounced warming trends since the early 1990s. Cities like Phoenix are already grappling with record-breaking high temperatures, and the combination of excessive heat and below-normal precipitation could lead to worsening drought conditions. Conversely, wetter conditions are expected across the Gulf Coast and Northeast, although the nature of the precipitation remains uncertain. Additionally, the strengthening La Niña conditions may contribute to a more active Atlantic hurricane season, creating favorable conditions for the development of major storms. Forecasters from Colorado State University have indicated a high probability of significant hurricanes impacting the U.S. coastline this summer, highlighting the dual threats of extreme heat and severe weather events as climate change continues to alter typical weather patterns.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article discusses the potential implications of an upcoming summer in the United States that is expected to be without the influence of El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that has previously impacted weather patterns significantly. As the article notes, while El Niño is weakening, the ongoing effects of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate heat conditions, leading to concerns about extreme weather conditions.
Purpose of the Article
The intent behind publishing this article seems to be multifaceted. It aims to inform the public about the expected weather patterns for the summer while also raising awareness of the broader implications of climate change. By highlighting the relationship between El Niño and La Niña and their impacts on weather, the piece seeks to educate readers on how these phenomena could influence temperatures and weather extremes in the coming months.
Public Perception
This article is likely trying to instill a sense of urgency regarding climate issues. By linking the absence of El Niño with potentially harsher summer conditions, it may evoke concern and prompt discussions about climate action among the public. The narrative suggests that, regardless of El Niño’s presence, the underlying issue of climate change remains critical and requires attention.
Omissions or Hidden Agendas
Though the article does a commendable job of explaining climatic patterns, it might unintentionally downplay other factors influencing weather conditions, such as regional climate policies or local environmental practices. By focusing on El Niño and La Niña, there might be a lack of emphasis on human contributions to climate change, which could lead to a more comprehensive understanding of the issue.
Manipulative Elements
The article contains a moderate level of manipulative potential, primarily through its framing of climate change as an imminent threat. The language used emphasizes the severity of the situation, which could lead readers to feel a heightened sense of anxiety. This approach could be seen as a call to action but could also be interpreted as overly alarmist.
Truthfulness of the Content
The content appears to be based on scientific predictions and historical data from meteorological sources. The involvement of experts such as Michelle L’Heureux from the NOAA lends credibility to the claims made regarding weather patterns. Overall, the article is grounded in factual information, although interpretations may vary.
Societal Implications
The article could influence public discourse on climate change and weather preparedness, potentially leading to increased advocacy for climate policies. Economically, it may prompt sectors reliant on weather patterns, such as agriculture and tourism, to prepare for possible extremes. Politically, it may galvanize support for environmental legislation and initiatives aimed at mitigating climate change impacts.
Target Audience
The piece is likely to resonate with environmentally conscious communities, policymakers, and individuals interested in scientific research. Its focus on climate change and extreme weather may attract readers who are already engaged in climate activism or those concerned about the future of the environment.
Market Impact
While the article does not directly address stock markets or economic sectors, its implications for weather-dependent industries could be significant. Companies in agriculture, insurance, and energy sectors might need to adjust their strategies based on anticipated weather patterns, potentially influencing stock prices.
Global Power Dynamics
Although the article primarily addresses weather patterns in the US, the discussions around climate change have global ramifications. As nations grapple with climate impacts, cooperation or conflict over resources may arise, affecting global power dynamics.
AI Utilization
There is no explicit indication that artificial intelligence was used in the writing of this article. However, if AI tools were involved, they might have assisted in analyzing data or predicting weather patterns. The clarity and structure could suggest a level of algorithmic assistance, but this remains speculative.
In conclusion, the article presents a credible overview of the potential weather conditions for the upcoming summer in the US, linking it to broader climate change narratives. While it serves to educate and inform, it also carries undertones that may influence public perception and action regarding climate issues.