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A new coronavirus variant is spreading in many parts of the world.
The variant, NB.1.8.1,has been identifiedas the cause of Covid-19 resurgence in China and several other Asian countries. Experts in Europe arepredictinga possible increase in cases there.
A summer wave also could occur in the United States. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, NB.1.8.1 already representsabout one-thirdof new Covid-19 cases as of June 7. This is a significant increase from just a month before, when the new variant represented just 5% of new Covid-19 cases.
Could another summer wave really occur? Do current vaccines still work, and if so, who should consider getting another dose now? And what precautions should people take to reduce their risk of contracting Covid-19?
To help us with these questions, I spoke with CNN wellness expert Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and clinical associate professor at the George Washington University. Wen previously served as Baltimore’s health commissioner.
CNN: What should people know about the new variant?
Wen:The SARS-CoV-2 virus is constantly mutating, and it’s entirely expected that there will be new variants. The more opportunities the virus is given to spread, the more opportunities it has to mutate.
Every time a new variant arises that appears to be outcompeting previous strains, it’s important to ask three questions: Is it causing more severe disease, is it more contagious, and do existing vaccines still work against it?
This new variant, NB.1.8.1, also called Nimbus, is a descendant of the Omicron strain. TheWorld Health Organizationhas deemed the new strain a “variant under monitoring.” However, WHO also reports that surveillance data do not show that it has increased severity compared with previously circulating variants. Given that this strain is outcompeting previous variants, it’s possible that it could be more contagious, but there is nothing to suggest that it is being spread differently compared with past variants.
As for whether existing vaccines work against this variant, the answer is not known. WHOcites laboratory datashowing that it could have some immune escape, which means it may be less responsive to the immunity provided by vaccines or prior infection and suggesting a possible reduction in vaccine efficacy. At the same time, NB.1.8.1 is a close descendant of other strains against which the vaccines have efficacy.
I expect there will be more data available in the coming weeks, as federal health officials will soon decide theformulationof this fall’s updated Covid-19 vaccine. Knowing that NB.1.8.1 constitutes a growing proportion of cases, they will most likely try to ensure that the formulation has efficacy again this variant.
CNN: What are symptoms of N.B.1.8.1 infection?
Wen:The symptoms appear to be similar to infection with other variants. There is alarge range of symptomsand severity. Some patients may have allergy-like symptoms, such as stuffy and runny nose. Others may have cold- or flulike symptoms, with fever, sore throat, fatigue, headache and muscle or body aches. Some people may develop cough and difficulty breathing. Some may have nausea, vomiting or diarrhea.
While most people will recover, some could become severely ill and require hospitalization. Some individuals who contract Covid-19 may also develop the post-viral condition known as long Covid.
CNN: Could another summer wave really happen again?
Wen:Yes. It could be triggered by a new variant that’s more contagious and that has some degree of immune escape. A wave also could occur simply because of declining population immunity. Some experts believe that the emergence of this new strain combined with less recent Covid-19 activity could start a wave in the next couple of months.
What we have seen from several years of experience with Covid-19 is that infections tend to come in waves. A surge in cases leads to many people falling ill, then recovering and developing short-term immunity to infection. Infection rates decline for several months, then they begin to increase again.
Summer waves of Covid-19have occurred over the past few years. It’s certainly possible that the pattern repeats this year.
CNN: Who should consider getting the vaccine now instead of waiting for the fall formulation?
Wen:This is a difficult question to answer because the landscape around Covid-19 vaccination has been changing. Just last month, US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that Covid-19 shotsare no longer recommendedfor healthy children and pregnant women. These shots appear to still be accessible for children; for instance, the CDC’s guidancenow readsthat children can get the shots after consulting with their health care provider. However, there are alreadyreportsof pregnant women having more difficulty obtaining these vaccines.
This and other guidance could soon change, as Kennedy hasreconstituted the panelof external experts who advise the CDC on vaccine recommendations, and this new panel could make different decisions during their upcoming meeting in late June. Another uncertainty is when a new round of vaccines will be made available.
One way to approach this decision is to consider your risk of severe outcomes if you were to contract Covid-19. Those who are 65 and over or who have chronic underlying medical conditions should consider getting another dose of the vaccine now,if they are eligible. That way, they have additional protection in case there is a summer wave, since the existing vaccine probably retains some efficacy against the new variant. And they can still get another dose in the fall when the new formulation will presumably be released.
As for those who are younger and generally healthy, some who have not yet received the 2024-25 formulation also may consider getting the vaccine now before guidelines change and they may no longer be eligible. People should discuss their specific medical situations with their primary care physician.
CNN: What precautions should people consider to reduce their risk of contracting this variant?
Wen:The same precautions we’ve been discussing throughout the Covid-19 pandemic still apply. This is a respiratory virus that could be airborne, so be on guard, particularly in crowded indoor settings.
People who are especially vulnerable to severe disease should try to avoid these settings. If they need to go into, say, a crowded train station, they should consider wearing a well-fitting N95 or equivalent mask.
Those people visiting vulnerable individuals may wish to avoid higher-risk settings in the days before the visit to reduce the chance of spreading not only Covid-19 but also other respiratory illnesses.