Good morning. The Nato summit that started last night in the Netherlands could hardly be better timed for Donald Trump: after declaring himself the saviour of world peace as Iran and Israel agreed a tentative ceasefire, he now intends to take a victory lap in Europe. European leaders, for their part, will be desperate for him to feel like he is getting his due.
That is part of why member states signed up to a new defence spending commitment that Trump has long demanded – and part of why the UK is buying asquadron of US-made fighter jetsto carry nuclear warheads. But as well as anxieties about the US’s reliability, all of that also reflects Europe’s recognition that it faces a serious new threat to the east.
Little wonder that Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary general, has been texting him,Trump revealed, with extravagant praise and promises that he is “flying into another big success”. Yesterday, the US permanent representative to Nato, Matthew Whitaker, described it as “one of the most consequential moments in this Alliance’s history.”
So does it really make sense for Nato to build its strategy with such a capricious audience in mind – and is there any room on the agenda for Iran andUkraine? Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s defence correspondentDan Sabbagh, explains why the summit matters so much. Here are the headlines.
Iran| A classified assessment of US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities says they did not destroy two of the sites and likelyonly set back the nuclear program by a few months, according to two people familiar with the report. Donald Trump had claimed that they had “totally obliterated” the facilities.
Welfare| Keir Starmer has said thegovernment will not shifton its welfare plans as ministers and party whips struggled to contain a growing Labour rebellion before next week’s vote. By Tuesday night the tally of rebels stood at 123 Labour MPs.
New York| Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist,stunned former governor Andrew Cuomoin the Democratic mayoral primary, a remarkable upset that sets him on course for the city’s mayoralty. The result will be viewed as a rebuke to the Democratic establishment, with wealthy donors and establishment figures like Bill Clinton supporting Cuomo.
Climate|The UK can reach its net zero targets for 2050, and its interim carbon budgets for 2030 and beyond, the government’s statutory climate advisers have reported. The Climate Change Committee also found that net zero would not destroy the UK economy, instead providing long term benefits.
Health| Tobacco killed more than 7 million people worldwide in 2023. It remains the leading risk factor for deaths in men and ranks seventh for women,according to analysis presented at the World Conference on Tobacco Control.
The Nato summit now under way in The Hague feels like it marks a step change: a return to a more highly militarisedEurope, dealing with an emboldened American president who has been less explicitly critical of Nato recently – but still intends a long-term pivot away from Europe and towards China.
“This is very much a cut down summit, packaged for a certain leader with a short attention span,” Dan Sabbagh said. “It’s been stage-managed to give Trump what he wants, which is the chance to take a victory lap. He will be the centre of attention, but also the potential source of trouble, and it’s hard to predict how that will play out.”
Here’s what you need to know.
What does the choreography of the summit look like?
Last night, national leaders met for a dinner, hosted by the King and Queen of the Netherlands at the Huis ten Bosch palace. The more consequential piece of the summit takes place today, when heads of state hold a single two-and-a-half-hour meeting.
That is in place of the usual three sessions; similarly, the joint communique released at the end will be shorter than usual, confined to a single five-paragraph page. The meeting and communique are expected to be focused on the new Nato spending commitments – although leaders may well bring up the Ukraine conflict and the war between Iran andIsrael.
When the meeting breaks up, leaders hold individual press conferences to reflect on its conclusions. Trump’s will, inevitably, draw the most attention by far. “I’d be surprised if we don’t see him thoroughly enjoying himself and proclaiming what a fantastic job he’s done,” Dan said. “The other leaders will be on their planes by then – but if he’s feeling celebratory, they’ll be happy.”
What commitments areNatomembers making on military spending?
The headline commitmentacross the alliance is to spend 5% of gross domestic product on defence by 2035, with 3.5% on “hard defence” – weapons, equipment, ammunition, and troops – and 1.5% on “soft” commitments, like cybersecurity and intelligence. “That is a massive increase for almost everyone except Poland, some of the Baltic states and the US,” Dan said. “The only wrinkle is that Spainhas insisted it won’t spend more than 2.1%, but they won’t stand in the way of a collective agreement.”
Because the commitment is as a share of GDP, it should be insulated from the erosive effects of inflation. “It’s real money,” Dan said. “It will have to be found from tax or borrowing or other budgets. It suggests that the Europeans have recognised that the free ride of the post-cold war period, where the US is responsible for their defence, is over.”
The UK’s commitment to buying 12 F-35A jets to carry US tactical warheads is part of that shift. Keir Starmer has signed up along with everyone else apart from Spain, with the 3.5% likely to amount to £30bn or more by 2035 – but the government appeared reluctant to do so until recently, Dan said. “It’s an uncomfortable commitment for Starmer to make for a second Labour term. Defence insiders say that the UK slightly misread the situation. They appear to have expected more inertia from others, with the figure settling at about 3%.”
Getting to 3.5%, within a 5% overall envelope, might be satisfying for Trump – but Nato secretary generalMark Ruttehas been credited with making it happen, Dan said. “British sources see him as a Trump whisperer. He worked the details out with Trump, and then set about the task of getting the Europeans on board.”
Does Nato have a role in the aftermath of theIsrael-Iran conflict?
The Middle East isn’t typically on Nato’s agenda, sincethe Article 5 provisionthat says an attack on one is an attack on all only applies within Europe and North America. Nonetheless, the timing of the summit means that it will inevitably come up.
“Part of the summit’s function is the here and now,” Dan said. “Even if Iran isn’t formally on the agenda, it is a chance for leaders to discuss it.” Rutte, for his part, said that he did not intend to raise Iran at the summit because “it is deviating from the core issue at hand” but added that “that doesn’t mean that individual allies will not discuss this here.”
One reason that leaders may prefer not to focus on Israel-Iran is that there are real divisions within the alliance about Israel and the United States’ attacks: Some leaders, like Friedrich Merz of Germany, are broadly behind it; the UK hastried to sit on the fence; others, like Emmanuel Macron of France,have been explicitabout their opposition. “Rutte spoke about the US taking ‘decisive action’, which is a neat way of three-quarters embracing it without saying you’re in favour,” Dan said.
What about Ukraine?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy joined the leaders’ dinner last night, and he has said he hopes to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the summit. But whereas Ukraine has featured heavily at every previous Nato summit since Russia’s invasion, it is not expected to be prominent this time.
Zelenskyy has not been invited to today’s meeting, reportedly after the US objected to the idea of his presence. Nato officials are trying to keep Trump and Zelenskyy apart in public as much as possible,the Washington Post reported. There were evensome suggestionsthat he might not attend at all. It is also unclear whether the US would accept any reference in the end-of-summit communique to Russia as the main threat to the alliance.
“There’s a different tone, which isn’t surprising,” Dan said. “Zelenskyy will keep trying to break through with Trump, and to persuade him that Putin is insincere.” While pledges of military aid from European countries have been worth about $40bn already this year, there is little chance of that being added to today.
How will they seek to manage Trump?
Rutte’s messages to Trump do not appear to have been intended for public consumption, but the president’s entertaining decision topost them on social mediagives a sense of what being a ‘Trump whisperer’ looks like: “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” Rutte wrote. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.”
That might seem transparently sycophantic – but it is a calculated response to the fact that as recently as February, there was huge pessimism about Trump’s commitment to Nato. “There was a real crisis when Hegseth came to the defence ministers’ meeting and said that the US wasno longer focused on European security,” Dan said. “That caused absolute panic.”
Since then, Trump’s stance appears to have softened a bit – partly as new defence spending pledges have been made, and perhaps also because of his disillusionment with Vladimir Putin as a negotiating partner. And yet there is an uncomfortable question about the unintended consequences of increased European defence spending: in the long term, might it make it easier for the US to drift away?
“None of those worries have gone away,” Dan said. “And there is a huge contrast with Nato’s treatment of Trump in his first term, when there was a sense that there were Republican ‘grownups’ restraining him. Today, with people like JD Vance and Pete Hegseth, you have a much more cohesive White House.”
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Whitaker, the US Nato representative, has insisted this week that the United States remains “a reliable ally”; meanwhile, Rutte told European leaders: “Stop worrying so much”. “But who knows what Trump will say at his press conference today?” Dan said. “Europe is basically rolling over because the world has changed, and it needs him.”
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“Britain to buy US jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons,” is the splash on theGuardian, and several other papers, today. “UK to match China and Russia with nuclear jets,” says theTimes, while theTelegraphhas “British jets to carry nuclear warheads,” and thei: “UK buys jets with nuclear weapons - to create deterrent from air and sea.” Meanwhile theMirrorruns with “War ready.”
“Trump drops F-bomb,” is the lead story at theMetro, while theFTsays “Trump lashes out at Israel and Iran in scramble to keep lid on ceasefire,” and theMail: “Humiliating threat to Starmer’s authority.”
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A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The Australian experimental rock band King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard have shunned the frenetic pace of a typical tour in favour of three-night runs in some pretty historic spots across Europe. The band, whoas the writer Laura Snapes put it, “have gigged their way to becoming their generation’s Grateful Dead or Phish”, have played everywhere from the infamous Lukiškės prison in Vilnius, which is now a venue, to the stunning Lycabettus hill theatre in Athens.
They’re showing how slowing down is a perfect expression of their art. “A lot of the lyrics have stemmed from spending a lot of time away from home, from family,” said frontman Stu Mackenzie, who had his third baby right before the tour started, “and trying to figure out how we make sense of all of that.”
When you slow down, they’ve discovered, you can truly notice how the world around us is built on thousands of years of human existence.
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