Good morning.
Talks. Istanbul. Thursday. In the geopolitical equivalent of a playground challenge, the latest move in the back-and-forth brinkmanship between Russia andUkrainehas seen President Zelenskyy call Putin’s bluff.
The Russian president crushed moves by Ukraine and its European allies to force a ceasefire by instead demanding peace talk negotiations in Istanbul tomorrow. In response, Zelenskyy challenged him to travel to Istanbul to meet him face to face.
Putinhas yet to respond, but these latest manoeuvres by both Ukraine and Russia – who seem very far away from being able to negotiate a mutually agreeable peace deal – share one thing: a desire to get Donald Trump on their team at the negotiating table.
With Trump signalling that he could take a breakfrom browsing private jet interiorsin Saudi Arabia to join the party in Istanbul, we are either gearing up for an extraordinary photo opportunity or a complete damp squib if neither Trump nor Putin shows and the deadlock continues.
For today’s newsletter I talked to our central and eastern Europe correspondent,Shaun Walker, about the latest round of power games, and whether there really is any prospect for peace in Ukraine.
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The past few days have seen intricate displays of diplomatic cat-and-mouse as Ukraine andRussiatry to gain the upper hand while facing increasing pressure to end the war in Ukraine.
There is much at stake. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have lost their lives. Last night the air raid sirens were still wailing across Kyiv as hopes of an imminent ceasefire were once again crushed.
What moves towards a peace deal have happened in the past few days?
Last weekend, things seemed to be going well for Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s one-to-one meeting with Trump at the Vatican had helped repair the rupture caused by the extraordinary press conference in the White House, and momentum appeared to be with him.
After recent attempts to get Russia to agree – and actually stick to – a ceasefire had failed,last weekend saw frustrated European leaders travel to Kyivwith an ultimatum for Putin: agree to a ceasefire or face new, tough sanctions.
Yet Putin had other ideas. Undermining Zelenskyy’s insistence that a full ceasefire should begin ahead of any peace negotiations, Putin went on Russian TV to propose direct talks between Russia and Ukraine and named the time and place: Istanbul, on Thursday 15 May.
Trump weighed in. Posting in his usual capital letters on his Truth Social platform, the president said that Ukraine should agree to Putin’s demand for a meeting immediately. “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin,” he wrote. “HAVE THE MEETING NOW!!!”
Zelenskyy took Putin’s challenge and raised the stakes. He said he would travel to Istanbul personally and challenged Putin to do the same, saying that the two leaders should meet face-to-face for the first time since 2019.
Since then, Putin has gone quiet. With the Kremlin refusing to comment, Ukraine has been ramping up the pressure. Yesterday, Shaun attended a bullish press briefing and then a sit-down interview with Zelenskyy. “His message is Ukraine is not the one to blame,” says Shaun. “He is saying to Trump that we are doing everything you ask. We’re not the problem here.”
What are the peace talks in Istanbul?
At the moment there is no detail on what will and won’t be discussed on Thursday, or even who will be the ones doing the negotiating.
Shaun says that while Putin’s holding position is to give the impression that he wants to negotiate, Russian demands at the talks on Thursday – regardless of whether Putin shows or not – are likely to be pretty much the same as the demands they were making at the beginning of the conflict, which include Ukraine dropping its aspirations to join Nato, give up territories taken by Russia and scale back its military.
On the other side, Ukraine wants to be a sovereign nation and an independent, democratic country with links – and ideally Nato membership – to the West. They will find it politically difficult to cede territory to their enemy.
“My reading is that it is very clear that Putin’s only goal for Ukraine is for it not to be a threat – in the way he perceives it – to Russian interests, and become this beacon of ‘anti-Russianness’ that will cause him problems,’” Shaun says. “At the talks, the Russian delegation will most likely continue pushing for terms that will still be fully unacceptable to Ukraine.”
How likely is it that Putin will show?
Shaun says that he’d be very surprised if Putin makes a personal appearance in Turkey on Thursday. “Putin doesn’t like being pressured into things. He doesn’t want to be in a room with Zelenskyy. This is what Ukraine is banking on,” he says. “I’d give it about a 5% chance that somehow Putin and Trump talk to each other this week and both go. I think the most likely scenario is that we’ll have Zelenskyy in Istanbul on Thursday recording a video saying, ‘Look, I’m here but nobody else turned up.’”
At the moment Zelenskyy is travelling to Ankara, the Turkish capital, to meet with its president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and will go to Istanbul if Putin shows. It’s unclear if he will be bringing a delegation with him who could start talks with the Russian team in the absence of Putin.
In some ways, Zelenskyy calling for a personal summit with Trump is potentially a high-stakes move, because if Putindoesshow up then Ukraine could face pressure to show they are willing to concede to some of Russia’s demands. Yet Shaun thinks a Putin no-show at this point is almost certain.
How much is this all about Trump?
Shaun says that the only thing uniting both Russia and Ukraine at the moment is their desire to get Trump onside.
“Ever since that disastrous White House meeting, Zelenskyy has been trying very hard – and with some success – to get Trump back on Ukraine’s team,” says Shaun.
Trump knows he wields huge power and influence on the global stage and hasn’t been afraid to use it. Since he took office, he has become increasingly frustrated with the Ukraine war and wants to show that he can do what he promised the US voters would be easy – to end the war and use whatever aggressive boardroom tactics he has at his disposal to force the two sides to bend to his will.
He is currently in Saudi Arabiafor a lavish four-day tripwhere he hopes to enrich both the US and his own family with a raft of multi-billion dollar deals (and fly home in his new Qatar-gifted luxury jet). Trump will want to build on this momentum and return home triumphant, able to say that he is dictating the terms of global politics.
The danger for Ukraine, says Shaun, is that even though the Biden administration moved much slower than the Ukrainians would have liked, America has been Ukraine’s most significant ally, providing weapons, intelligence sharing and other support.
“Now with Trump they know he doesn’t like it when things get difficult so their fear will be that he’ll just give up and say, ‘Sorry, this is your mess to fix,’ and walk away like he’s promised to do so many times,” says Shaun.
Shaun says that for Russia, Trump bailing on the war would be a good outcome. “If the negotiations fail and Trump walks then Ukraine could risk losing US support, which would be catastrophic for them.”
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If the talks fail, what next?
Shaun says that in the event that nothing is agreed in Turkey, the big question will be whether the Europeans can get Trump on board and once again ratchet the pressure up on Moscow for a ceasefire. European leaders have indicated they will press ahead with further sanctions if talks this week fail to achieve real progress.
The issue, as ever, is Trump’s unpredictability. “We know from experience that there could be a new command or request from the Americans at any time and everything could change again,” he says.
In such a high-stakes game of political poker, it’s impossible to place a safe bet on what will happen next. Until then, the sirens will continue and the war will grind on.
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TheGuardian’sheadline is “Zelenskyy: Putin is the obstacle to a peace deal”, as the Ukrainian leader pledges to travel to Turkey for talks. TheTelegraphclaims “Hostile state linked to Starmer firebombs”. Theireports “New migrant rules boost UK hopes of softer Brexit deal”. TheFTsays “Beijing fears over UK-US trade accord cloud London’s bid to revive China ties”.
TheMailleads on the quashing of Peter Sullivan’s conviction with “28 years in jail for a murder he didn’t commit”. TheMirrorfollows the same story with “Cleared after 38 years”. Finally theTimesreports “Weight-loss drugs hailed as key to a longer life”.
Trump’s ex-Russia adviser on the prospect of WW3
Defence expertFiona Hillon why the world becomes more dangerouswhen international systems break down.
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Jennifer Hobson describes finding an adult grey seal named Pinkafo, close to death with a flying ring toy caught round her neck, as a moment that “broke my heart”. But it was a momentthat changed her lifetoo.
Seven years on, Hobson is a leading seal welfare campaigner and author whose work has been recognised by the prime minister and led to retailers changing their product line to remove the potentially lethal rings. On 26 May, she will lead a national campaign to raise further awareness of their dangers. “Everyone can learn how to protect seals by swapping flying rings for seal-safe solid flying discs this summer,” she says.
And as for Pinkafo? Thanks to Hobson’s intervention, she survived – and is believed to have later given birth.
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