A£5bn programme of disability benefits cutsplanned by the UK government will disproportionately hit people living in Wales and northern England “entrenching deprivation”, according to new analysis.
The consultancyPolicy in Practicehas looked at how the proposed changes would affect individual regions and local authorities, and found the impact across the UK starkly uneven.
The research showsthat north-east England, north-west England and Wales would be the hardest hit, suffering three times the economic impact and with twice as many affected residents as London and the south-east.
The 10 most affected councils, including Blaenau Gwent, Hartlepool and Blackpool “face economic costs around five times the national average”, the analysis contends. In all three of those places, nearly one in 10 of the population will be affected.
Deven Ghelani, the director of Policy in Practice, said local authority leaders needed to understand how people in their areas would be affected, to prepare for rising service demand and to protect the people most at risk.
“These reforms will have an uneven impact on different parts of the country,” he said. “Some parts of the country will get a double whammy because they have a smaller economy and will lose a larger share of it.
“One of the reasons they have a smaller economy is that they have more people impacted so the proposals have a serious risk of entrenching existing patterns of deprivation.”
The government’s controversial benefit changes includetightening the criteria for personal independence payments (Pip)for people with disabilities, to limit the number of people who can claim it.
Policy in Practice estimates that the planned reforms will affect about 2.9 million people, who could lose a combined £6.8bn.
It says that by the end of this parliament, 8,000 people are expected to lose Pip worth between £3,800 and £5,700.
Ministers have said the changes are essential to overhaul a “broken benefits system” that denies job and skills support to ill and disabled people who can work. But they havestruggled to persuademany MPs that the cuts are not simply crude budget savings aimed at the worst-off.
The Policy in Practice analysis finds that in north-eastEngland, nearly 170,000 people will be affected (6.2% of the population) and the wider financial impact will be £400m lost. In Wales, nearly 190,000 people will be affected (6.1% of the population) with £470m lost.
In north-west England, nearly 430,000 people will be affected (5.7%) with over £1bn lost.
The analysis lists the 10 most affected local authorities, with nine of those in the north-east, north-west andWales. The financial impact of the cuts and the number of people affected is far higher in these areas than others.
“Together this means that deprived areas that have more people on disability benefits who risk losing out also see a greater proportionate impact – impact that hits an already struggling economy.
“These reforms will work against efforts to level up local economies unless the cuts to disability benefits are replaced by other forms of investment.”
More than 3m UK households will be hit by the changes to disability and incapacity benefits starting from next year. Official estimates forecast 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, will be pushed into poverty as a result.
A spokesperson for the Department for Work and Pensions said: “As part of ourPlan for Change, we’re creating a sustainable welfare system that delivers proper support to help sick and disabled people into work, break down barriers, unlock work, boost living standards, and grow the economy.
“This is on top of our Get Britain Working white paper, which set out the biggest employment reforms in a generation – backed by £240m – working across government and with our mayors, local leaders, the NHS, and employers, to drive up employment and opportunity and grow the economy.”