Vietnam scraps two-child policy as it tackles falling birthrate

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"Vietnam Ends Two-Child Policy Amid Declining Birth Rates"

Vietnam scraps two-child policy as it tackles falling birthrate analysis cover image The Guardian 8.9
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Original Article Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/04/vietnam-two-child-policy-end-falling-birthrate
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TruthLens AI Summary

Vietnam has officially abolished its long-standing two-child policy, allowing couples to decide freely on the number of children they wish to have and the intervals between births. This significant policy shift comes as the country faces a critical decline in birth rates, which have dropped to a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024, falling below the replacement level necessary to maintain the population. The two-child policy, which originated in the 1960s in communist North Vietnam and was solidified in the 1980s and 1990s, had not been strictly enforced across the nation. However, it was still a guiding principle, particularly for members of the Communist Party, who faced potential sanctions for having larger families. The Vietnamese government is now actively seeking strategies to reverse this trend, which poses risks of an ageing population, potential labor shortages, increased pressure on social welfare systems, and challenges to the nation's economic growth plans.

The decline in birth rates is particularly pronounced in urban areas, such as Ho Chi Minh City, where the cost of living has deterred young families from having more children, resulting in a birth rate as low as 1.32 in 2023. To combat this issue, local governments are implementing various incentives, including financial rewards and certificates of merit for families that meet certain childbearing criteria. For instance, in Tien Giang province, financial bonuses are offered to communes that achieve high rates of two-child families. Despite these initiatives, birth rates continue to decline, reflecting a broader trend observed in neighboring countries like Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. In addition to addressing birth rates, the Vietnamese government is also focused on correcting an imbalanced sex ratio, which has historically favored male children. As part of this effort, the Ministry of Health has proposed increasing penalties for fetal gender selection, indicating a commitment to promoting gender equality in family planning.

TruthLens AI Analysis

Vietnam's recent decision to abolish the two-child policy is a significant shift in its family planning approach, driven by concerns over a declining birthrate that threatens the country's future socio-economic stability. This policy change allows couples more freedom in deciding their family size and timing, reflecting a broader effort to address demographic challenges.

Historical Context and Policy Development

The two-child policy has deep historical roots in Vietnam, starting in the 1960s and evolving significantly after the reunification in the 1980s and 1990s. The government has long advocated for smaller families, viewing it as a means to manage resources and ensure economic growth. However, the policy was not strictly enforced for all citizens, with party members facing particular scrutiny.

Current Demographic Challenges

Vietnam's birthrate has fallen below replacement level, dropping to 1.91 children per woman in 2024, raising alarms about an ageing population and potential labor shortages. The government is particularly concerned about urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City, where the birthrate has plummeted to 1.32. This demographic decline could strain social welfare systems and hinder economic progress.

Incentives to Encourage Childbearing

In response to the declining birthrate, local governments are implementing various incentives to encourage families to have more children. These initiatives include financial rewards and certificates of merit for couples who meet specific childbearing criteria. Despite these efforts, birthrates continue to decline, indicating that financial incentives alone may not be sufficient to change societal attitudes towards family size.

Public Sentiment and Societal Impacts

The announcement might be aimed at reshaping public perception regarding family planning. The shift could foster a more positive outlook on expanding families, although the effectiveness of such messaging remains to be seen. The government’s focus on encouraging larger families suggests a strategic pivot towards sustainable population growth.

Economic and Political Implications

The policy reversal has the potential to impact Vietnam’s economy significantly. A growing population can lead to a more robust labor market, essential for sustaining economic development. Conversely, failure to reverse the declining birthrate could exacerbate issues related to an ageing workforce and increased economic burdens on the younger generation.

Community Reactions and Target Audience

This policy change is likely to resonate more with families considering expansion, especially in urban areas facing high living costs. By appealing to young couples, the government aims to address the underlying concerns that deter them from having more children.

Market Impact and Broader Implications

In terms of market implications, this demographic shift could influence sectors like real estate, education, and childcare, as an increase in birth rates could lead to greater demand in these areas. Companies focused on family-oriented services might see growth opportunities as the government encourages larger families.

Geopolitical Considerations

While the news primarily addresses domestic issues, it reflects a broader trend in Southeast Asia concerning declining birth rates, similar to trends observed in neighboring countries. The implications of Vietnam's demographic policies could play a role in regional stability and economic competitiveness.

In conclusion, the decision to scrap the two-child policy demonstrates Vietnam's proactive approach to a pressing demographic issue. However, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on the government's ability to address the underlying socio-economic factors contributing to low birth rates.

Unanalyzed Article Content

Source URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/04/vietnam-two-child-policy-end-falling-birthrate

Vietnam has scrapped a longstanding policy limiting families to two children, as the communist-run country grapples with a declining birthrate.

State media announced on Wednesday that couples could make their own decisions about how many children to have, and how much time to wait between births, reversing a decades-old preference for one- or two-child families.

The promotion of two-child families dates back to the 1960s in communist North Vietnam, though this policy was further developed in the reunified Vietnam in the 1980s and 1990s, including through the country’s first decree on family planning in 1988. The two-child policy was not universally enforced, though members of the Communist party could face sanctions.

Authorities are now searching for ways to boost families, as Vietnam’s birthrate fell to a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024, which is below replacement level.

Officials fear the trend could lead to an ageing society, creating labour shortages, putting pressure on social welfare systems and threatening the country’s economic growth plans.

Birthrates are especially low in urban centres, such as Ho Chi Minh City, where the rising cost of living was identified as barrier for young families. Its birthrate fell to 1.32 in 2023.

Local provinces are offering various rewards and subsidies to encourage couples to have children. This includes certificates of merit and a financial reward of about 1m dong (£28) for women who have two children before the age of 35. Some provinces, such as Tien Giang in southern Vietnam, were also giving 30m dong to communes and wards in which 60% of couples of childbearing age had two children across three consecutive years, state media reported. Birthrates in the province are still falling, however.

The national birthrate of 1.91 children per woman recorded in 2024 was down from 2.11 children per woman in 2021, 2.01 in 2022 and 1.96 in 2023. Neighbouring countries, such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, have similar trends.

In Japan, the government released figures on Wednesday showing the number of births in 2024 had fallen below 700,000 for the first time on record.

Vietnam appeared to relax its two-child policy in 2003, but this wasreversed in 2008.

Vietnam is also trying to tackle an imbalance in its sex ratio, driven by a historical preference for boys. On Tuesday the ministry of health proposed tripling a current fine to $3,800 “to curb foetal gender selection”, according to state media.

The gender ratio at birth, though improved, remains skewed at 112 boys for every 100 girls.China ended its strict“one-child policy”in 2016 and in 2021 permitted couples to have three children, though its population fell for the third year running in 2024.

AFP contributed to this report.

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Source: The Guardian