Good morning. The government’s strategic defence reviewwas launched on Mondayand billed as a blueprint to modernise the military so that, in the words of Keir Starmer, the UK is “safer and stronger, a battle-ready, armour-clad nation with the strongest alliances and the most advanced capabilities”.
Reviews likethis onecome along every decade or so – but the context now appears more urgent than at any time since the end of the cold war. In the place of the old consensus that the UK simply needed to be ready for (deeply questionable) deployments to places such as Iraq and Afghanistan is a view that the threats now are much closer to home, and much closer to existential. “UK armed forces have begun the necessary process of change in response to this new reality,” the review said. “But progress has not been fast or radical enough.”
Even within its carefully conceived terms of reference – which insisted on maintaining a role in the Indo-Pacific region and the Middle East, and did not allow for proposals to increase overall spending beyond what Starmer has already set out – the review amounts to a severe critique of the state of the armed forces.
Today’s newsletter explains the problems, the proposed solutions and the views of those who suggest that all of this is answering the wrong question. Here are the headlines.
Israel-Gaza war| A series of recent deadly airstrikes on school buildings sheltering displaced people in Gaza were part of a deliberate Israeli military bombing strategy,the Guardian has learned. The strikes followed a loosening of controls on actions targeting Hamas operatives at sites with large numbers of civilians present, sources said.
Health| The proportion of people surviving cancer in the UKhas doubled since the 1970samid a “golden age” of progress in diagnosis and treatment, a report says. Half of those diagnosed will now survive for 10 years or more, up from 24%, according to the first study of 50 years of data on cancer mortality and cases.
US news| Mohamed Sabry Soliman, 45, has beencharged with a federal hate crimeand multiple other offences after he allegedly used a makeshift flamethrower and incendiary devices to burn people in Boulder, Colorado who were raising awareness about Israeli hostages in Gaza.
Iran| Tehran is on the brink of rejecting US proposals on the future of its nuclear programme after a US draftinsisted on the suspension of enrichment of uranium inside the country. The US proposal also offered no clear route map for lifting sanctions.
Scotland| A Scottish Labour councillorhas defected to Reform UKon the eve of a pivotal Holyrood byelection, as the rightwing populist party’s leader, Nigel Farage, defended a controversial advert attacking Anas Sarwar that has prompted accusations of racism.
The review published yesterday is the first since 2010; John Healey, the defence secretary, says it is a departure from past iterations because it is externally led. When the review was launched, the government said it would “consider the threats Britain faces, the capabilities needed to meet them, the state of UK armed forces and the resources available”.
Led by Lord Robertson – a former defence secretary and Nato secretary general who conducted Labour’s last defence review in 1998 – it has consulted 150 external experts, received 8,000 submissions to a call for evidence, and runs to 48,000 words.
What is the current state of Britain’s armed forces?
Most judges of the UK’s military readiness paint a dire picture of the armed forces as not being fit for purpose, and the review’s call for a “truly transformational” approach implicitly adopts the same view.
In a report on the lessons from the Ukraine war published last year, the House of Lords’ international relations and defence committeesaid that the armed forces“lack the mass, resilience and internal coherence necessary to maintain a deterrent effect and sustain prolonged conflict”. Philip Stephens of the Financial Timeswrote that(£) those conclusions “are viewed within Whitehall as wholly uncontroversial”.
There are plenty of numbers pointing to that conclusion. In 2010, the regular army was 110,000; now it is short of its target of 73,000, the smallest since the Napoleonic wars. Across all the armed forces, the number is down from 192,000 in 2010 to 136,000 today.
Even before the war in Ukraine, ammunition stockpiles were in decline, and in 2023, Gen Sir Richard Barrons – who has been working alongside former US presidential adviser Fiona Hill on Robertson’s review team – said the UKwould probably use up its existing suppliesin a “busy afternoon” . RAF aircraft numbers fell from 724 in 2016 to 564 in 2023, a reduction of 22%. And the Royal Navy has two aircraft carriers that have had serious mechanical problems, without enough sailors to crew the ships needed to protect and supply them – or enough fighter jets to fill them.
What does the defence review say is necessary?
The review suggests that a military “optimised for conflicts primarily fought against non-state actors” needs to be drastically rethought to contend with the prospect of “state-on-state war” through “‘whole-of-society’ preparations”. It presents Russia as an “immediate and pressing” danger to the UK, and China as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”, while Iran and North Korea are termed “regional disruptors”.
To be ready to meet those challenges, the review lists 62 recommendations; the government has accepted every one in principle. The most eyecatching measures were trailed beforehand, from £6bn in spending on six “always on” munitions factories to a new cyber command unit coordinating offensive digital operations.
There will be a £15bn investment in modernising the production of nuclear weapons, and a pledge to build “up to” 12 new attack submarines. And through the force multiplying effects of artificial intelligence and a £2bn investment in drones, the review promises a “ten times more lethal British Army”. Ben Quinnhas a more detailed breakdown.
More conventionally, Healey had reportedly hoped to increase the size of the army by a few thousand. But he appears to have lost that fight with the Treasury, at least for now. And of the £350bn the UK is expected to spend on defence over this parliament, only £10bn is thought to be new spending committed through the strategic defence review.
When will the new capacity come online?
Part of the explanation of the disconnect between major announcements and new spending is the length of time that much of what is proposed will take to be enacted.
The new submarines will not launch until the late 2030s. There is no timeline on the new munitions factories, while Healey said there would be no increase in the number of troops until after the next election. And on the fundamental question of how much the UK will spend on defence, Keir Starmer has promised 2.5% of GDP by 2027-28 butdescribed 3% as an “ambition”to be pursued at some point during the next parliament – that is, by 2034, if it materialises at all.
As one source familiar with the budget processquoted by the Economistputs it: “Basically, all their investment is for an era when Putin will be dead.”
The UK’s 2.5% pledge may soon start to look behind the pace against its European allies: defence ministers meeting in Brussels this week are expected to agree a 3.5% target, with the main question whether that should be scheduled for the early 2030s or later in the decade, the Economist reports. The review says that a rapid move to 2.5% and subsequent lift to 3% should make what is proposed affordable in the end – but warns that “it may be necessary to go faster”.
So is theplan enough to ensure the UK’s security?
The government pointed out that this is the first defence review since the end of the cold war that has not resulted in cuts. And it is important to note that, while the armed forces are undoubtedly weaker than they once were, the UK retains the world’s sixth-largest defence budget.
That puts it behind the US, Russia, China, India and South Korea – but the government is likely to observe that its alliance with other European countries means that it will have considerably greater impact. (The review describes a “Nato first” outlook, and says: “We will never, in the future, expect to fight a major, ‘peer’ military power alone.”)
Even if the threat from Vladimir Putin is far greater than might have been understood a decade ago, Russia’s war in Ukraine has so depleted its resources that it is thought to be years away from being able to consider such a conflict.In this analysis, Dan Sabbagh writes that “Britain is not under direct military threat and is not likely to be any time soon”.
But there is still a sense of a military that is fundamentally overstretched. In 2023, David Richards, the former chief of the defence staff,said in the House of Lords: “This country must stop deluding itself that it can have a global role. We are a medium-sized country with a faltering economy.
“The UK must focus ruthlessly on the Euro-Atlantic theatre, not state that this is our priority but then spread our efforts so thinly that we are strong nowhere.” In contrast, Robertson, Hill and Barrons describe “the connection between Euro-Atlantic security and that of other regions such as the Middle East and Indo-Pacific”.
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What is the broader economic context?
Others suggest that the plans should be subjected to a much more fundamental critique. Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies noted yesterday that if the UK plans to spend an additional £10-15bn on defence while spending more on other priorities like health and pensions, “the only choice that is available … is some really quite chunky tax increases”.
Meanwhile, claims that military spending can boost the economy may look questionable when compared with the impact that the same money might have if spent on green energy or healthcare, among other priorities. (This Greenpeace analysismakes that case.)
Unsurprisingly, others, like the Stop the War Coalition, the Green party and some within Labour, question whether a boost to defence spending can possibly be the right priority at a time when public services are generally agreed to be creaking.
They also note that cutting the international aid budget to serve the military may have unintended consequences. Ellie Chowns, the Greens’ defence spokesperson in the House of Commons, said yesterday: “Security is not just based on arms expenditure and threats, but on real leadership that uses diplomacy and development too.”
Mark O’Connell’s long readaboutMr Beastis gimlet-eyed, quietly droll, and utterly convincing that his subject is worth the intention. He is “some type of genius,” O’Connell writes – “a prodigy of a form that, as degraded as it is, deserves to be taken seriously as one of the signature artefacts of our time”.Archie
They’re free to use, refreshing to the mind and body and transcendentally beautiful – so who would want to harmAmerica’s national parks? Donald Trump, comes the inevitable reply.Margaret Sullivan explainswhy his administration is so determined to despoil the things that make life worth living.Alex Needham, acting head of newsletters
Henry Hillhas an essential columnon the Conservative party’s impatience withKemi Badenoch: “The balance of opinion inside the party seems to be not whether there will be a challenge ... but when.”Archie
He wrote Jerusalem, saw angels in his local park and inspired artists ranging from Gilbert and George to Patti Smith. Now the poetWilliam Blakeis being celebrated, inan exhilarating piece by Philip Hoare, as a queer icon centuries ahead of his time.Alex
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Tennis| Jack Draper missed out on the chance of a place in the French Open quarter-finals,losing in four sets to the inspired world No 62, Alexander Bublik. Draper’s compatriot Cameron Norrie was beaten by Novak Djokovic in straight sets. In the women’s draw, French wildcard Lois Boisson beat third seed Jessica Pegula to reach the French Open quarter-finals and send shock waves around Roland Garros.
Formula One|Max Verstappen has issued a veiled apologyfor his crash with George Russell by admitting it “was not right and should have not happened”. The four-time world champion was hit with a 10-second penalty by the stewards for causing a collision with Russell with two laps remaining of Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix.
Football|Lisa Nandy has removed herselffrom the final decision over who will lead the new football regulator, after it emerged the preferred candidate had donated to the culture secretary’s Labour leadership campaign. David Kogan revealed last month that he had given money to Nandy during her bid to succeed Jeremy Corbyn in 2020.
“Starmer pledges to make Britain ‘battle-ready’ with drones and AI” says theGuardian, while theTimeshas “Tax rises loom to put Britain on war footing”. Thei paperleads with an interesting angle: “British over-18s offered taste of military life with ‘gap year’ in army, navy and RAF”. TheExpressnaturally finds cause to criticise: “Budget delay won’t ‘cut the mustard’ as Russia threaten”. “Police in major new hunt for Madeleine” – that’s theTelegraphand theMirroralso covers that with “New Maddie search”. TheMailgoes with “Tory warnings over ‘backdoor blasphemy law’”. TheFinancial Timessplashes on “Musk launches $300mn share offer for xAI in bid to refocus on business”. A terrible case from an inquest leadsMetro: “‘Bullied’ soldier dead 3 weeks in bed at barracks”.
Keir Starmer needs you: Britain readies for war
Former Guardian security editor Richard Norton-Taylor talks through the strategic defence review andBritain’s new plans to be ready for war
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In Indonesia, the architecture firm Shau created the Microlibrary Project to promote literacy but its inventive, ecologically minded structures offer much more, including respite from the heat. The Hanging Gardens microlibrary, completed in 2019, has a rooftop garden, while another, Bima, has a facade of 2,000 discarded ice-cream buckets providing natural lighting and cross-ventilation.Shau co-founders Daliana Suryawinata and Florian Heinzelmann, who have built eight libraries since 2012, call the spaces “laboratories for experimentation”, and they are popular with young people who come to read, learn, garden and play. Their goal is to increase the number of libraries to 100 by 2045.
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
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