The climbs of Mont Cassel and Le Mont Noir won’t be enough to split the peloton, so this is almost guaranteed to be a bunch sprint, unless it gets windy. A strong westerly would make this a nightmare with more than 140km of crosswinds, but if it stays calm it’s a first big test for Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier and the other fast men. For the favourites, a first day of trying to stay upright.
A punchy finale: three steep little hills in the final 30km, and a climb to the finish. There will be a selection here, with a strong chance of crashes as the riders battle for position before the climbs. This stage has Mathieu van der Poel or Wout van Aert written on it and even more stress than day one for Tadej Pogacar and company. The chances are at least one favourite ends their race here.
A third very accessible day for UK fans, another ascent of Cassel, but the safe money is on a bunch sprint in Dunkirk, famed among cycling fans for the Quatre Jours de Dunkerque stage race which actually lasts six days. The same proviso as day one: a westerly equals crosswinds on the final exposed 35km and splits in the field. These early days will be packed with crashes and tension, but Philipsen and company will be licking their lips.
A welter of little hills in the finale including the Rampe Saint-Hilaire, a 750m “wall” in the city centre, 5km from the finish; there will be huge stress for all the contenders trying to get in place for these. Evocatively, one of the late hills is the Côte de Bonsecours, where Jean Robic staged a final-day heist to win the 1947 Tour, but in the Pogacar era there’s not much chance of a repeat.
The first decisive day in the battle for the overall, a relatively long time trial on the rolling bocage north-east of Caen, largely on wide main roads that will suit the most powerful riders in the field. The favourites need to at least limit any losses; the winner should be a purerouleur– the Italian Filippo Ganna, perhaps. If he’s on form, Ineos should be targeting this stage and a possible spell in yellow.
The Suisse Normande isn’t widely known among cyclists now, but back in the day local amateurs spoke in awe of races over this area’s leg-breaking climbs. The fun starts in the final 70km, with three third-category climbs, before a final little brute, the Côte de Vaudry, 4km from the finish. French fans will be hoping Julian Alaphilippe can throw back the years as this would have been made for him in his pomp.
Day one in Brittany is more straightforward, passing Bernard Hinault’s village of Yffiniac – 40 years since the Badger became the last French Tour winner – before two ascents of Mûr de Bretagne to conclude. The finish up the “Wall” is harder than anything the race has tackled to date, and you’d expect Pogacar to make an early statement of intent, but it will also suit Van der Poel, winner here in 2021.
The start tips its hat to the triple winner Louison Bobet, the baker’s boy from Saint Méen, then the route heads east; if the prevailing wind – westerly – does its thing, this will be very fast, but the scenario is well trodden: early doomed break featuring lowly French teams cheered on by the local crowd – think Arkéa, Cofidis, Total Energies – and a sprint finish for Philipsen and company after five days’ waiting.
British fans remember Chateauroux for the first of Mark Cavendish’s 36 stage wins in 2008 and his 32nd in 2021. With not a single rated climb en route, this is bound to be a sprint day, and by this point, the pressure will be mounting on the fast men who are yet to win: if Philipsen and Merlier are on form, the finger will be pointing at Biniam Girmay and Dylan Groenewegen.
Just the 10 climbs today in the Massif Central; mainly second category but totalling 4,450m of vertical ascent. This is the first major showdown among the favourites, and at least a couple could see their hopes of winning end here. With climbing from the get-go it will be full on from the start; for the win look to a puncheur like Ireland’s Ben Healy. It’s Bastille Day so the French will bust a gut and leave empty-handed.
Rest day, Tuesday July 15
This could go either of three ways: full bunch sprint, reduced bunch sprint, or break. The finale with its series of little hills might burn off a fast man or two, and will certainly make a coordinated chase difficult. This could be the last full bunch sprint of the Tour, so let’s plump for Philipsen; if the break goes and the sprinters’ teams tire in the finale the wily Dane Magnus Cort is a good bet.
First proper mountain stage up the grim ascent above Lourdes where Miguel Indurain destroyed the field in 1994. There’s a long preamble to the Col du Soulor, the first first-category pass of the race, so expect a massive break targeting the stage win. If the favourites give the break leeway, the winner will be someone who can climb but won’t win overall, so why not the Frenchman Guillaume Martin or his teammate David Gaudu?
Three kilometres of flat, eight straight uphill against the watch, culminating in a final kilometre at 16%. This is a day for the GC men, with absolutely no hiding or bluffing. Whoever wins here will have a very good chance of winning overall in Paris, so it’s a day for Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard to show exactly what they’ve got in the tank. For everyone else, it’s damage limitation.
A mountain classic: Cols de Tourmalet, Aspin and Peyresourde, plus the pull up to the ski station, where winners include Federico Bahamontes, Greg LeMond, Hinault and Robert Millar. Four big passes make this a decisive day in the mountains prize with a ton of points on offer; the stage winner will probably be a climber who’s not figuring overall. Enric Mas of Spain might fit that bill, or the Austrian Felix Gall.
In the past, the organisers would have left this as a flattish transition stage with a bunch sprint at the end. In the made-for-TV 21st-century Tour, this gets a detour into Le Parc Naturel Régional du Haut-Languedoc with a couple of meaty climbs midway through to liven things up. It’s a day for the breakaway artists, who will know that their opportunities are running out: why not the demon descender Matej Mohoric or the Welsh wizard Stevie Williams?
Rest day, Monday July 21
Moonscape, Tom Simpson, Giant of Provence, wheel out those evergreen lines for the nastiest climb of the Tour so far. The stage is pretty flat as far as Bédoin at the foot of the Bald Mountain, but then it’s uphill for 22 baking or windswept kilometres. A potentially decisive day for the overall contenders. Pogacar and Vingegaard will make the race here, and UAE v Visma could be a battle worthy of the backdrop.
Potentially a bunch sprint, the last of the Tour, but teams with a sprinter who can climb – think Intermarché with Girmay for example – will try and burn off the slightly heavier brethren such as Merlier on the drag to the Col de Pertuis after 66km, particularly if the green jersey is in play; here’s a chance to gain valuable points. It will all hang on wind direction, morale and the peloton’s dwindling reserves of strength.
The first of two monstrous Alpine stages, including three super-category passes: the Glandon, Madeleine and the 27km haul up the Col de la Loze to the finish. The script in recent Tours has been for the overall contenders to fight so hard in the biggest mountain stages that the breaks get scooped up before the finish. No reason to expect today to be the exception, so Pogacar or Vingegaard are safe bets for the win.
Short and brutal, but with only two super-category climbs and they aren’t quite as horrific as the day before’s. The race could well have been decided the day before, in which case the favourites will give a break a lot of headroom, and watch each other to the finish to consolidate what they have. That makes this the final chance for climbers such as Australian Ben O’Connor and Ireland’s Ed Dunbar.
Thepuncheursand breakaway specialists will have been waiting for five days with this one on their minds. The battle for the early break will be intense and the fight for the stage could be epic. As well as our old friends Cort and Healy, this will appeal to about half the peloton, wily one-day specialists such as Alberto Bettiol of Italy or the Dane Mattias Skjelmose.
Paradoxically, to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the first Tour finish on the Champs, it’s all change: three laps of the Champs circuit, then three times up the Butte Montmartre. If the overall standings are tight this could be a cliffhanger. It’s 46 years since a Tour winner won a road-race stage into Paris but don’t rule out Pogacar for a final flourish; if not the Slovene, a Classics specialist such as Van der Poel.