Good morning. You may not be terribly excited abouttoday’s local elections in England, but let me tell you: a significant cadre of political dorks are swivel-eyed with anticipation.
In play today are more than 1,600 council seats in 37 councils, six mayoralties, and a byelection in Runcorn for good measure. Those choices will give us the first real-world measure of how the public’s view of the parties has shifted since the general election – and for Labour and theConservatives, it’s likely to be a very stern test indeed.
ForNigel Farageand Reform UK, meanwhile, it’s an opportunity to consolidate their reputation as a growing political threat – and actually run something for the first time. Whether that’s ultimately good news for a party built on protest more than power is a knottier question.
Today’s newsletter explains what the dorks are so animated about, and what to look out for as the results come in. Here are the headlines.
US news| The US’seconomy has shrunkin the first three months of Donald Trump’s second term, triggering fears of an American recession and a global economic slowdown. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, and comes alongside a huge fall in consumer sentiment, which dropped 32% in April.
Climate crisis| Tony Blairhas faced a storm of criticismover his claims that the political case for phasing out fossil fuels is “doomed to fail”. As Downing Street officials accused Blair of undermining Keir Starmer on a key issue, his thinktank issued a statement saying that the government’s net zero policy was “the right one”.
Ukraine| The US and Kyiv havesigned an agreementto share revenues from the future sale of Ukrainian minerals and rare earths, sealing a deal that Donald Trump has said will provide an economic incentive for the US to continue to invest in Ukraine’s defence and its reconstruction after he brokers a peace deal with Russia.
Health| Scientists have used living human brain tissue to mimic the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia,in a breakthrough that will accelerate the hunt for a cure. The groundbreaking move could make it easier to test new drugs and boost the chances of finding ones that work.
UK news| Video footage of what prosecutors say is the moment the Sycamore Gap tree wasfelledhas been shown to the jury in the trial of the two men accused of illegally cutting down the famous tree on Hadrian’s Wall, which stood in a gap in the wall for over a century.
As the political scientist Paula Surridge explains inthis excellent psephological guide, the raw numbers that come out after the votes are counted won’t tell you that much about who’s had a good night. More useful is to compare the results with what happened last time the same contests took place.
In most of today’s elections, that was in 2021, and so the Conservatives have a lot to lose: they were extremely popular under Boris Johnson in that bygone age, partly because of the recent rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. Labour were in the doldrums. And Reform, running across England today, barely had any candidates at all. (UK In A Changing Europehas a good crib sheeton the baseline to measure the results against.)
Here’s what else to keep in mind when the votes are counted.
Labour| Will tough results prompt a lurch to the right?
Best case scenario: Cling on to Runcorn and keep Nigel Farage at bay.
Worst case scenario: The opposite, with Doncaster council also falling to Reform.
Most likely scenario: At least some retreat against Reform, and a debate over whether the party needs to tack right to head off the problem.
Labour only won 286 seats last time, and has control of just one of the councils being contested. That limits the scope for losses, and a quiet night where interest is largely elsewhere would probably be viewed by Keir Starmer as a decent result.
The trouble is there are some headline-grabbing contests that could go badly. In the Runcorn byelection, two polls have suggested that a massive majority of almost 15,000 votes could be overturned by Reform. (This pieceby Josh Halliday and Olivia Lee captures the mood of some very sceptical voters there; there are also suggestions from the Labour side that they might be helped by anti-Reform tactical voting.)
Labour are also nervous about losing Doncaster, the sole council they control that’s in play, to Reform. If the results imply that lots of Labour MPs whose closest challenger last year was Reform could lose next time around, expect renewed arguments that the party needs to shift further to the right on immigration.
Conservatives| How bad does it have to be to count as a crisis?
Best case scenario: A Labour by-election defeat distracts from their travails.
Worst case scenario: A fourth-place finish in vote share and the loss of councils in Tory strongholds – with the Lib Dems and Reform hurting them in different parts of the country.
Most likely scenario: Ugly numbers, and Tories giving interviews where they play down the damage.
The Conservatives have been telling anyone who will listen that crap results are inevitable, and shouldn’t be viewed as a sign of crisis. They’re certainly right about the first bit: of the 1,641 council seats in play, they are defending almost 1,200 of them. It’s possible they could lose about half their seats – the kind of punishment usually reserved for an incumbent government.
It’s also possible that they lose control of nearly every one of the 19 councils they control which are up for grabs. Part of the problem is the difficulty of crafting a message that appeals to supporters threatening to desert them for Reform and the Lib Dems alike. Their best hope of a bright spot is in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral race, wherea YouGov pollgives former MP Paul Bristow a solid lead.
Kemi Badenoch’s supporters will insist that she has only just got started, and will hope that the Runcorn byelection, announced before any of the councils, will shape the coverage. Inthis analysis piece, Pippa Crerar reports that many backbenchers are fatalistic – but evidence that things have actually got worse for the Tories since last year will make it hard to silence questions about whether they will be reduced to seeking an electoral pact with Reform in the future.
Liberal Democrats| Can they capitalise on the Reform-Tory fight?
Best case scenario: Take Tory councils in the “blue wall”.
Worst case scenario: No councils gained and tactical voting works against them.
Most likely scenario: Modest gains that don’t get much attention.
The Liberal Democrats are leaning in to the idea that the Tories are shifting right to counter Farage – and, asthis Ed Davey piece suggests, getting a lot of mileage out of an infamous Kemi Badenoch quote: “A typical Liberal Democrat will be somebody who is good at fixing their church roof”. Great news in the rural and provincial areas that constitute most of today’s battlegrounds.
They’d love to take control of councils in Oxfordshire, Cornwall, Gloucestershire and Kent, and will hope that some disgruntled Labour supporters will help their cause, perhaps even elevating them to second behind Reform in national vote share. Those kinds of successes wouldn’t really amount to more than the party’s traditional mid-term bounce – but it would be encouraging to continue to take Tory support even when they’re not in power.
Greens| Would a mayoral success grab some attention?
Best case scenario: Gain some council seats with a big increase in vote share, and win the West of England mayoral race.
Worst case scenario: Stasis.
Most likely scenario: Some success, but more evidence that Farage is the one with the megaphone.
They may not get the degree of attention that Reform do, but the Greens are hoping to benefit from tactical voting and some of the same anti-system bounce that Nigel Farage is likely to enjoy, albeit on a smaller scale.
There is little chance of winning any of the councils on offer, which are in areas where they haven’t traditionally done well. They would be absolutely thrilled to win the West of England mayoralty, with polls split on whether their candidate or Labour’s is more likely to prevail.
Expect the post-match analysis to dwell on whether they can copy aspects of Reform’s messaging. “They’re at the centre of all conversations at the moment,” deputy leader Zack Polanski acknowledges to Helena Hortonin this piece. “We need bold communication from the Green party as we’re at a point in politics where the one thing that is definitely certain is the status quo won’t hold up.”
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Reform| Might they be victims of their own success?
Best case scenario: Win Runcorn, several mayoralties, and wrest control of councils from both Labour and the Tories – with more votes than anyone else across England.
Worst case scenario: Tactical voting on the left limits their success.
Most likely scenario: A lot of momentum – but also the risks that come with power.
As all of the above probably suggests, Reform are almost certain to dominate the headlines tomorrow morning. They will hope to win somewhere between 400 and 500 council seats, and success on that scale will bolster Nigel Farage’s continual case that they have a real shot at Westminster power at the next general election.
But that’s still a long way off – and success is likely to come with some significant risks attached for a party which has a chequered history of untested candidates, and for a leader who doesn’t like sharing the limelight. Andrea Jenkyns, the media-friendly former Conservative minister running on a “DOGE Lincolnshire” ticket for the mayoralty there, should watch her back.
The polling implies that they have a chance of winning overall control in two or three councils. But their councillors will have very limited experience of local government, and the history of their predecessor parties suggests that acrimony and chaos may be the most likely sequel. The Conservative mayor in Tees Valley, Ben Houchen, sums up the hopes of the bigger parties neatlyin this Politico piece: “They’re going to have two or three years to either do something which proves to people that actually they’re a genuine alternative … or they’re going to fall flat on their face.”
The second part of theGuardian’s “Viktoriia project”goes inside Russia’s notoriousTaganrog prisonto investigate the torture and starvation of Ukrainian civilians. A brutal but important read by Guardian foreign and investigations reporters.Annie
AsTate Modernapproaches its 25th birthday,artists and curators reflecton some of the installations and exhibitions that have made it so significant. From Yayoi Kusama to Paul Cézanne, it’s a remarkable list - although I bet they’d both wish they’d been the ones to think of mixing salad with a rake.Archie
Feeling restless in his native Norfolk, folk musicianJames Frostset off on amusical pilgrimagethrough Olde England to find inspiration in ancient rituals and sight. His lyrical travel piece follows his songwriting journey west towards Cornwall exploring old byways and bridle paths, stone circles and ancient woodland.Annie
Zoe Williams is very goodonTony Blair’santi-net zero intervention - and how it once again demonstrates that, whatever else he is these days, he certainly isn’t on the left.Archie
With the rumoured imminent departure ofNcuti Gatwafrom the tardis amid plummeting ratings, Martin Belam asks whether this could be the end forDoctor Who?Annie
Women’s Super League| Chelsea clinched a sixth consecutive title with two games to spare and continued their relentless dominance of the major silverware in English women’s football with a1-0 win at Manchester United. The result leaves Sonia Bompastor’s team on course to complete the league campaign unbeaten with two games to go.
Champions League| Barcelona recovered from 2-0 and then 3-2 downto draw 3-3 in the first legof their semi-final against Inter Milan. Barcelona’s teenage star Lamine Yamal and Inter’s Denzel Dumfries were the outstanding players in a match that leaves Inter with every chance of victory after the second leg in Italy.
Darts| Former darts world champion semi-finalist Andy Jenkins has beenbannedfrom the sport for 11 years and handed a £17,580 fine for match-fixing. The 54-year-old was found guilty of fixing 12 matches and passing information on to bettors.
“US downturn amid Trump tariffs triggers fear of global slowdown,” is the splash on theGuardiantoday after the president’s chaotic first 100 days in office.
“The King’s message of hope for fellow cancer patients on ‘frightening’ journey,” says theiof King Charles, while theExpresshas: “King’s gratitude for ‘community of care’ defying cancer.” “King’s cancer message of hope,” is also the lead story over at theMetro, and also theMirror, which has: “Take risks .. Love deeply.”
Several papers have lead stories linked to Tony Blair’s criticisms of the government’s climate policies. “Don’t give up on oil, Norway warns UK” is theTelegraph’s splash. “Solar panels on all new homes in net-zero push,” says theTimes, while theMailhas: “Now unions reject Ed’s green lunacy.”
The attack on Zamzam refugee camp and what it means for the Sudan war
Guardian journalist Kaamil Ahmed reportson the devastating assault by the Rapid Support Forces on the camp in Darfur and what it tells us about the group’s plans in Sudan’s civil war
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
After 20 years, the world’s favourite monster - he of knobbly knees, turned-out toes and wart on his nose -is back. Legendary children’s book duo Julia Donaldson and Axel Scheffler have announced that they are working on a new Gruffalo book, set to launch in September of this year.
The original Gruffalo stories, The Gruffalo and the Gruffalo’s Child, were published in 1999 and 2004 and have remained among some of the most popular children’s titles in the world, collectively selling over 5 million copies. It has become a staple of a generation of children’s bedtime routines, spawning films, theatre shows and a huge range of Gruffalo merchandise.
In previous interviews, Donaldson said that she had originally intended the main character in the Gruffalo books to be a tiger but couldn’t think of a good enough rhyme. In the end she decided to create a monster and needed a word of three syllables ending with “oh” and starting with “grrr” and so the gruffalo was born.
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
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