Brøndby appointedThomas Frankas manager in June 2013 and did not win any of their first eight games of the 2013-14 season. Brentford appointed Frank as manager in October 2018 and lost eight of their following 10 games. So nobody should panic if Frank begins slowly at Tottenham.
In reality, though, the first couple of months will be a major challenge for the Dane. These are not easy circumstances for anybody to take the Spurs job. Usually a manager takes over after a run of poor form, with fans and players ready for a change and a regression to the mean in the offing. Spurs have been on a run of poor form: one win in 12 league games over the final three months of the season, but in that time they alsowon the Europa League, which means everything is seen in a different light.
Fans may have grumbled, they may have stopped singing Angels, and there wasthe contretemps at Stamford Bridge, but many of the doubts about Ange Postecoglou were forgotten amid the ecstasy of Bilbao. To judge by the victory parade after the Europa League final and theoutpourings of love on social media, the players remained supportive ofthe previous manager. Which makes this a very unusual situation: Frank inherits a side that finished fourth-bottom of the league, that is both buoyed by recent success and expectant of improvement.
That Postecoglou started his first season so well only complicated the issue: unfair and unrepresentative of the whole as it may be, it’s easy to imagine the comparisons to his first 10 league games, which yielded 26 points.
There are other doubts. After working in the youth ranks in Denmark, Frank has only ever managed Brøndby and Brentford. In terms of scrutiny and expectation, Tottenham is a whole new level. It’s one thing to be affable at the club with the second-lowest wage bill in the Premier League, quite another at a club like Spurs with a vast global fanbase. Already there has been some online scepticism about the wisdom of a club of their size and self-perception appointing from humble Brentford.
While the examples of José Mourinho and Antonio Conte show the dangers of turning to a manager who believes the club should be grateful to have them, latent doubts about the scale of the step-up could exacerbate the backlash if early results or performances are poor – as Tottenham experienced during Nuno Espírito Santo’singlorious 17-game reign. And then there’s the Champions League: after the Europa League win, there should be few fears about playing in Europe, and Spurs should at the very least qualify for the playoff round, but constant high-level games are a drain on both physical and emotional energy.
Frank has limited experience of balancing the domestic league and Europe, the furthest he ever took Brøndby being the fourth qualifying round of the Europa League. His European record is notably poor: played 10, won three, and two of those were against Juvenes/Dogana of San Marino. His record in domestic cups, similarly, is dismal; his past history makes it unlikely a poor league season could be redeemed by other silverware – although the depth of the Spurs squad perhaps means the cups will not be such a low priority.
There is one further doubt, which is more to do with Spurs than with Frank. He is leaving an exceptionally well-run club, at which every component worked together to a coherent philosophy. There can be no certainty that any one cog from that system, however important, can achieve success in a different environment, something Chelsea have found as they accumulate more and more parts from Brighton without ever looking like replicating the efficiency of the Brighton model. It may be that such efficiency is not even possible at bigger clubs.
But there are risks in any appointment, just as there are in any transfer. There can be no guarantees that what worked in one set of circumstances will work in another. Football is complicated, andFrank has not just thrived at Brentford– taking the club with the 19th-highest wage bill to 10th in the table is a remarkable achievement – but has given every indication that he is flexible enough to adapt to a new environment.
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Brentford were promoted as a progressive side with 55% possession in 2020-21, stayed up in their first three Premier League seasons playing in a relatively low block with 44% or 45% possession and then, in the season just ended, began pressing higher and playing more in transition, their possession rising to 48%. That’s three clear and distinct ways of playing, even before you get to the frequent tweaks of formation.
Not for Frank stubbornly sticking to a philosophy – only to then abandon it when the injuries became too much, leading paradoxically to glory – which is a large part of his appeal.
Frank is 51, but he is a manager on the way up. He has Premier League experience. He is the sort of profile of manager Tottenham should be looking to appoint. His track record is very good. It should work. But nothing in football is ever certain and there is a danger a poor start, combined with a confusion about realistic aspirations, could undermine his reign before it begins.