In her first act asLiberal partyleader, Sussan Ley made an iron-clad commitment to a bruised party room reeling from its worst election result in 80 years.
She promised colleagues that all its policies – including net zero and the commitment to nuclear power – were up for review and no “captain’s calls” would be made to resolve them.
The Nationals immediately sought to test the new Liberal leader’s word, presenting a list of four policy ultimatums to maintain theCoalition.
Ley – in her second major act as leader – didn’t blink.
As a result the Coalition has split for the first time in 38 years, fundamentally reshaping, at least temporarily, the conservative side of politics in Australia.
The Nationals leader,David Littleproud, informed Ley of his decision to abandon the union roughly 30 minutes before he announced it publicly at an 11.45am press conference in Parliament House on Tuesday.
Senior Liberal MPs who have sat around cabinet tables and in joint party room meetings with the Nationals for years learned of the break-up in real time.
They were blind-sided, but not entirely surprised.
The signs were there.
The Liberals and Nationals negotiate a new agreement after each federal election, clarifying the terms under which the Coalition will operate in the coming term.
The strictly secret pact is known to contain a formula that determines the number of frontbench positions each partner is entitled to.
After seeing off theanti-net zero advocate Matt Canavanin a leadership challenge on 12 May, Littleproud came under immediate internal pressure to secure more than just the Nationals’ quota of shadow ministries.
The Nationals emerged from the 3 May election more or less unscathed.
The senior frontbencherBridget McKenzie publicly made the casefor the Nationals to be awarded an economic portfolio – usually the purview of the Liberals – while others privately demanded a commitment to nuclear power be enshrined in the agreement.
On 15 May,Littleproud travelled from Queensland to Alburyon the NSW-Victorian border to start formal talks withLey, who had rushed hometo be with her dying mother.
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At that point the Nationals hadreportedly settledon the list of four policies it would demand the Liberals recommit to or risk the first Coalition split since 1987.
The list included support for nuclear energy, break-up powers for supermarkets and hardware stores, a $20bn regional Australia future fund and the so-called universal service obligation to ensure reliable phone and internet access in the bush.
The Nationals fought for the policies under Peter Dutton and didn’t want to have to prosecute the case again under Ley.
The policies weren’t necessarily under any threat: they were Coalition election commitments just weeks ago. Ley and her senior colleagues wanted to keep the Liberals and Nationals united, given the parties have no hope of forming government apart.
However, the new Liberal leader didn’t want to allow the Nationals to lock the Liberals into any policy positions, as that would have breached her promise to colleagues.
Senior Liberals supported their leader.
Speaking on the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday, the Liberal senator Anne Ruston – part of Ley’s four-person leadership team – argued the agreement should not dictate policy positions.
“Liberal party policy is developed in the Liberal party room,” she said. “National party policy should be developed in theNational partyroom.”
There was a fifth demand – although this was one was sought by the Liberals.
Ley wanted to maintain shadow cabinet solidarity, a basic principle that means senior frontbenchers must publicly support agreed positions and cannot cross the floor to oppose them in parliament.
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The Nationals would not explicitly agree, Ley confirmed on Thursday.
Liberal sources believe senior Nationals wanted the freedom to break ranks on contentious issues, including net zero.
“That is untenable,” a Liberal source said.
The two leaders held further talks on Monday, when Ley reiterated the Liberals’ firm position. The party was not prepared to cave to the Nationals’ list of demands but she was optimistic the country party would “see reason” and agree to a deal.
Some Liberal MPs thought the Nationals were bluffing.
But late on Monday afternoon, the new Nationals deputy leader, Kevin Hogan, made clear the threats were genuine.
Asked if there was any “serious suggestion” that the Nationals would abandon the Coalition, forfeiting shadow cabinet spots and sacrificing pay in the process, Hogan said: “Absolutely.
“If we thought it was selling out our constituents and the people we represent, absolutely,” he told the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.
Littleproud strode into Ley’s Parliament House office at about 11am on Tuesday morning.
There was no final attempt at negotiations. The Nationals leader had made up his mind.
Moments later, he made the short walk to the Nationals party room with Hogan and McKenzie, the Nationals’ Senate leader, to announce the split.
“A reasonable request was put to a trusted partner, and it was refused,” McKenzie said.
Ley convened a virtual Liberal party room on Tuesday afternoon before fronting the media at 3.45pm.
She confirmed the Nationals sought “specific commitments on certain policies”, which the Liberals could not accept while they review the party’s platform.
“I asked the Nationals to respect those party room processes and, similarly, I would respect their attachment to the policies that they announced as very important to them,” she said.
“But our approach: nothing adopted and nothing abandoned.”
Ley said the “door remains open” to a reunion. That won’t happen immediately.
For now, she needs to assemble a shadow cabinet and ministry.
She now has more spots to offer her Liberal colleagues.