The election of Friedrich Merzas chancellorby German legislators on Tuesday morning was meant to end months of political instability, since thecollapse of Olaf Scholz’s governmenthalf a year ago – itself the result of bitter infighting at the top. Many fear that this could be the last chance to keep out the far-rightAlternative für Deutschland(AfD). But thehumiliating resultof the first ballot – in which Mr Merz became the first chancellor designate to fail to secure the majority needed in the Bundestag since the second world war – was a bad beginning.
It was supposed to be a straightforward confirmation; instead, he was hobbled by rebels from his own coalition. Only 310 of its 328 legislators backed him, short of the 316 required. He was approved by 325 in a hastily scheduled second vote, hours later.
Yet while it was a bombshell, the first vote only laid bare the fundamental problem. The alliance between Mr Merz’s conservatives and the Social Democrats may be known as a grand coalition, but it is in practice a very modest one – and he has no realistic alternatives should it fall apart.
The AfD’s leader, Alice Weidel, made no attempt to hide her glee at the debacle in the Bundestag, calling for a snap election. Her ethno-nationalist party, nowformally declared as extremistby Germany’s domestic intelligence agency,came second in February’s snap election, gaining one in five votes. It has since risen to first place in some polls.
The concern is of a toxic cycle emerging. As support for parties in the centre diminishes, they are forced to draw together – strengthening the perception that they form a single blob which mutes any new endeavour addressing the real needs of ordinary voters, and instead horsetrades its way towards unsatisfactory compromises. That in turn could whittle support further, with voters concluding that rightwing political extremism offers the only real prospect for change. No one would suggest this is unique toGermany, but the AfD’s surge makes it especially dangerous, and the nation’s history makes it especially chilling.
A political system built for stability has entered an unpredictable new age. Mr Merz’s domestic struggles are intensified by the storm blowing in across the Atlantic. The Trump administration is openlyegging on the AfDand undermining the government.US tariffsthreaten astruggling economy. The disintegration of US security guarantees loom over the continent.
That context ensured that Mr Merz’s eventual swearing-in was received with undisguised relief elsewhere inEuropetoo. The best-case scenario is that Tuesday’s shock forces a recalibration by both the new chancellor and members of his coalition. Resolving their discontent will require empathy, subtlety and deftness that he has yet to show.
His strident rhetoric yet political flexibility has often made him look brazen rather than pragmatic. His decision toscrapborrowing restrictions, allowing defence spending to rise, was necessary but arrived as a screeching U-turn, whichangered membersof his own Christian Democratic Union.Relying on AfD votesto push through a resolution on border security was a grave error that broke the postwar taboo against working with the far right. Few will feel that he is the ideal leader for this perilous moment – as hisdismal poll ratingsdemonstrate. But with so much at stake, Germany cannot afford for its new chancellor to fail.