Towards the end ofhis at-capacity speech to the National Press Club this week, the architect of Labor’s landslide victory, Paul Erickson, delivered a warning to both sides of parliament.
Better versed in political history than most, the ALP’s national secretary noted that Melbourne University was preparing a new history of Robert Menzies’ life and career.
Erickson observed that the second volume concludes Menzies had the good fortune of not being subject to a rightwing echo chamber during his nearly 20 years in The Lodge. The clear air helped him become the country’s longest-serving prime minister and mostly avoid overreach, with the notable exception of his 1951 referendum on banning the Communist party.
The speech was delivered on Wednesday afternoon, the point which might be looked back on as a historic bottoming-out of the political stocks of the Liberal and National parties. Smashed on 3 May by voters,the Nationals blew up the decades-long Coalitionin an act of bovine stubbornness on Tuesday.
Just 48 hours later, the Nationals awkwardly tried to put the show back together, after Sussan Ley made back-channel approaches to senior party figures. Journalists ran down the hallways of the press gallery as David Littleproud, his deputy, Kevin Hogan, and Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, announced the course correction.
Both parties hit pause on plans to name frontbench line-ups to help the reconciliation along, amid consideration of four policy demands from the junior partner to Ley and her Liberal colleagues.
While she had promised a full review of the policies rejected by voters, Littleproud, egged on by internal and media echo chambers, insisted theCoalitionstick with the Peter Dutton plan for nuclear power, along with big-stick breakup powers to target supermarkets and other “big box” retailers. He also wanted a $20bn regional Australia fund maintained and minimum service standards guaranteed for telecommunications in the bush. Liberals objected to the beefed up divestment policy, despite a similar plan being accepted under Dutton in the last parliament.
Menzies himself believed it was better to keep the Nationals at the table, even when he didn’t need their numbers. “Better to keep them beside you where you can keep an eye on them,” he told one of his ministers.
Luckily for the Nationals,an in-principle agreement was reached on Friday.
Liberals had warned it was unprecedented that they would be required to accede to Nationals’ demands, especially so soon after the election. In turn, Nationals accused Ley of her own overreach. “She’s not allowed to piss around in our pond,” one told this column.
While McKenzie and the New South Wales senator Ross Cadell would have been at risk of losing their seats at the 2028 election because of the split, Littleproud himself could be the biggest loser from the spat.
Challenged in a leadership vote by Queenslander Matt Canavan days before, Littleproud’s leadership is always under pressure because of the presence of former leader Barnaby Joyce in the party room. Joyce and McKenzie are favourites of Sky News, a forum where nuclear power is right and net zero policy is wrong. Its commentators have advocated for the Coalition to go further to the right in defeat.
Michael McCormack, another ex leader still in parliament, told ABC radio he was “ambitious” for Littleproud after a messy week. Echoing Scott Morrison’s hollow support for Malcolm Turnbull at the height of the 2018 leadership drama, the comments were viewed as a kiss of death.
Talkback radio has been clearly baffled by Littleproud’s timing. Ley’s mother died days after she was elected opposition leader and a funeral is planned for 30 May. Instead of being able to grieve with her family, Ley was forced to try to hold off an existential threat to her leadership. Some Nationals privately acknowledge it was insensitive overreach to force the crisis on Ley when they did.
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Littleproud might not have lost votes in the mess, but he has lost skin. He is likely to fall back on the fact MPs in the party room voted for a split. He has – unintentionally – managed to bring about a reunion between longtime rivals Joyce and McCormack.
McKenzie also played a role in the breakup, demanding the Liberals hand over a senior economic portfolio and egging things along. Calmer heads prevailed once some of her colleagues realised just how unelectable both parties would be apart, with the Nationals relegated to crossbench status and unlikely to have much influence.
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Nationals MPs would take pay cuts and sack staff, and just sit alongside the Greens, likely for at least two more terms as Labor cemented its policy goals and built a long term governing legacy. “Never get between a National and a white car,” one observer said, a reference to the perks Nationals MPs will enjoy when they eventually make it back to government.
The culture of the Nationals has been politically askew since Joyce was the leader, cheered on by the party’s equivocation and denial of climate change by the rightwing media echo chamber. Joyce has maintained an outsized media profile and was prepared to fight internal fights in plain view of voters.
Malcolm Turnbull viewed the Nationals as being all hat, no cattle during his time as leader, and sensationally split with Joyce over his affair with a ministerial staffer.
Labor has watched the drama unfold, unable to believe its political luck.
Anthony Albanese spent the week meeting with Pope Leo XIV and the leaders of Canada and the European Union while the Coalition tore itself to pieces. He made preparations for parliament to return on 22 July, the first time the full depth of Labor’s dominance will be on show.
Some crossbenchers are concerned Albanese could reduce their staffing allocations for the new parliament, potentially letting experienced employees go.
Back at the Press Club, Erickson stressed the Coalition would continue to lose elections until it faced up to the lessons of defeat, including overreach.
Labor wasn’t spared his gentle warning either.
Erickson said the party won big under John Curtin in 1943 and Ben Chifley in 1946, but its own overreach on government intervention into the economy let the Liberals back in 1949. Albanese was in the room for the speech, along with some of his most senior cabinet ministers.
If the Coalition remained split, the main opposition to Labor’s likely 94-seat majority would be the Liberals alone, with fewer than 30 MPs. Labor’s dominance might fuel a little hubris in the long term ahead.
Tom McIlroy is Guardian Australia’s chief political correspondent