Sussan Ley may be the first woman to lead the federalLiberal partyahead of a showdown with Angus Taylor that shapes as a defining moment for the beleaguered party.
The Liberal party room will meet at 10am on Tuesday to choose a new leader and deputy leader after a disastrous federal election that costPeter Duttonhis own seat of Dickson.
The two contenders spent the weekend and Monday lobbying colleagues with vastly different pitches to rebuild a party still reeling from the 3 May poll.
Incoming Goldstein MP Tim Wilson flirted with the idea of running as a potential third option before ruling himself out late on Monday.
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“I won’t be a candidate for leader tomorrow – it’s not my time,” Wilson wrote on social media.
“But I will be giving all my energies to whoever wins, to replicate what we did in Goldstein across our party.”
As of Monday afternoon, senior Liberal sources said Ley – who was Peter Dutton’s deputy leader – was considered the slight favourite to win the party-room ballot.
However, sources in both camps expect the result to be extremely tight and hinge on a cohort of MPs who were yet to declare their hand over recent days, even in private conservations with the leadership aspirants and their allies.
Ley has the backing of Liberal moderates and members of the centre-right faction, who believe the 63-year-old represents their best hope of winning back voters who have deserted the party at the past two elections – in particular, women.
There is also internal resentment toward Taylor as the architect of the threadbare economic agenda that some cite as a major factor in the Coalition’s election defeat.
The shadow treasurer has the backing of most of the right faction, which held sway under Dutton.
Former Liberal prime ministerTony Abbotthas publicly endorsed Taylor while Ley has the backing ofex-premiers in NSW and Victoria.
One Liberal MP cautioned against viewing the ballot as a straight contest between the party’s factions, saying MPs were weighing up a suite of competing priorities as they mull who should succeed Dutton.
The decision of the NT senator,Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, to defect from the Nationals to the Liberals to run as Taylor’s deputy has thrown another factor into the mix.
Moderate Liberals were aghast at the prospect of elevating Price and her fiery brand of right-wing politics, fearing it would push the party further to the fringes.
Liberals have also privately questioned if Taylor’s move to recruit Price to the Liberal party room would backfire, causing some MPs to switch to Ley.
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However, one source said Liberals MP would not want to been seen opposing Price because she was so popular with the branch members who decide preselections.
On Tuesday, Liberals MPs will first cast a ballot for the leadership before a separate vote for the deputy’s position.
That means Price could be deputy even if Taylor loses. However, sources said that was unlikely given that if Taylor lost it would be clear the right didn’t have the numbers.
The shadow climate change and energy minister, Ted O’Brien, was expected to put his hand up for the deputy’s role.
O’Brien is eyeing the shadow treasurer’s role if he wins, with the Liberal deputy typically granted their choice of portfolio.
The next Liberal leader will lead the Coalition alongsideDavid Littleproud, who retained the Nationals’ top jobafter fending off a challenge from Queensland senator Matt Canavan on Monday afternoon.
The makeup of the Liberal party room that will decide the leadership positions was completed on Monday as more seats were called.
The Liberal party’s federal director, Andrew Hirst, was given until Monday morning to determine which candidates in the remaining undecided seats were projected to win to allow time for them to travel to Canberra before Tuesday’s leadership ballot.
Guardian Australia confirmed Gisele Kapterian (Bradfield), Mary Aldred (Monash), Zoe McKenzie (Flinders) and Terry Young (Longman) will be allowed a vote.
However, Amelia Hamer won’t be in the room after falling short in her bid to reclaim Kooyong from teal MP Monique Ryan.