Another upshot of the possible trade rapprochement: the FTSE 100 is on course for its longest ever winning streak.
The index closed up by 0.02% on Thursday, its 13th successive gain. Friday’s early gain suggests that – barring an abrupt turnaround – it could break the record for the most consecutive trading days in a row, set back in 2017.
Of course that run of gains only takes the FTSE 100 back to where it was on 2 April 2025, whenDonald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffsliberated shareholders from trillions of dollars in value.
The gradual recovery in the month since then – can it truly only have been a month? – suggests that investors believe that the underlying conditions in the global economy are not actually that bad.
And the best way to manufacture a rising stock market index is to knock it down in the first place.Back in 2017, the previous longest streakwas set with Trump at the top of investors’ minds as well.
Stock markets have gained across Europe, as investors welcomed signs of a possible thaw in the trade war between the US and China.
Germany’sDaxgained 1.2% in the early trades, while France’sCac 40was up 1.4% – after both were closed over the May Day bank holiday. TheStoxx 600index, which tracks big companies across Europe, rose by 0.9%. TheFTSE 100was up 0.9%.
The gains appeared to be a reaction to China’s government saying it is “evaluating” US approaches for trade talks. Reuters reported a statement from the Chinese commerce ministry:
That came after a state-linked social media account said there was “no harm” in China engaging in talks – even if it also sounded a note of caution. Nevertheless, it comes after US administration officials and Donald Trump himself repeatedly signalled they want to cut tariffs.
Jim Reid, a strategist atDeutsche Bank, said:
The FTSE 100 has jumped 1% at the open.
Shell and NatWest are both big contributors, up 4% and 3.7% respectively.
Shell has reported a 28% drop in profits to $5.6bn (£4.2bn) as big oil companies grapple with lower prices.
Oil priceshave dropped from the heights hit after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a global energy crisis. Shell’s adjusted profits were down from $7.4bn in the first quarter of 2024, or therecord first-quarter profitsof more than $9.6bn in 2023.
However, Shell’s performance this year was still better than analysts’ expectations of $5bn, according to forecasts collected by the company.
Brent crude oil futures were trading at $62 per barrel on Friday, compared with more than $130 at the peak of the energy crisis in early 2022.Oilcompanies are having to contend with Saudi Arabia’s apparent willingness to tolerate low prices in order to defend its market share, as well as Donald Trump’s desire for low energy prices – not to mention the threat of slower global growth or even recession from Trump’s trade war on the world.
Shell’s profits took a hit of £500m that went to the UK government under the energy profits levy, after chancellorRachel Reeves raised the tax by three percentage pointsand closed “loopholes”.
NatWest bank has taken a step nearer to full privatisation with a sale of a shares that takes the government’s stake to less than 2%, as the lender reported a 36% jump in profits.
The bank, formerly known asRoyal Bank of Scotland, was the biggest recipient of abailout during the financial crisisof 2008. The government’s stake has dropped from 84% when it was part-nationalised, and38% in December 2023.
Recent months have not been the worst time to offload a stake in NatWest: in fact the bank’s share price has more than doubled since early 2024. (Of course, the flip side of that is that the government would have benefited from the price increase had it held on to the shares.)
Here is NatWest’s share price over the last decade:
Recent performance has looked strong. NatWest reported operating profit before tax of £1.8bn, up from £1.3bn in the same period last year, beating analyst consensus forecasts by £200m.
Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, said:
9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (April; previous: 48.6 points; consensus: 48.7)
10am BST: Eurozone inflation (April; prev.: 2.2% annual; cons.: 2.1%)
10am BST: Eurozone unemployment (March; prev.: 6.1% annual; cons.: 6.1%)
1:30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls (April; prev.: 228,000 jobs; cons.: 130,000)