Here, from PA Media, are the byelection results in full.
Labour gain from SNP
Davy Russell (Lab) 8,559 (31.57%, -1.99%)Katy Loudon (SNP) 7,957 (29.35%, -16.84%)Ross Lambie (Reform UK) 7,088 (26.15%)Richard Nelson (C) 1,621 (5.98%, -11.47%)Ann McGuinness (Green) 695 (2.56%)Aisha Mir (LD) 533 (1.97%, -0.82%)Collette Bradley (SSP) 278 (1.03%)Andy Brady (SFP) 219 (0.81%)Marc Wilkinson (Ind) 109 (0.40%)Janice MacKay (UKIP) 50 (0.18%)
Lab maj 602 (2.22%)7.42% swing SNP to LabElectorate 61,485; Turnout 27,109 (44.09%, -16.62%)
2021 result: SNP maj 4,582 (12.63%) – Turnout 36,284 (60.71%)McKelvie (SNP) 16,761 (46.19%); Lennon (Lab) 12,179 (33.57%);Gallacher (C) 6,332 (17.45%); McGeever (LD) 1,012 (2.79%)
Good morning. Assuming he was not still up at 1.36am,Keir Starmerwoke to good news this morning – Labour winning the byelection in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse for the Scottish parliament. It has gained the seat with a 7.4% swing from the SNP.
This is a surprise. A week ago the SNP were press releasing a Norstat poll for the Times suggesting they were ahead by 33%, withLabouron 19% and Reform on 18%. And the bookies had the SNP in the lead too. Yesterday one firm had the SNP as firm favourites, followed by Reform, with odds of 11/1 available to anyone prepared to bet on Labour. Presumably someone has made some good money. For the rest of us, this is a welcome reminder that opinion polls, and bookies’ odds, are not always a sound guide to results, particularly in byelections.
Starmer was criticisised for not campaigning in Hamilton. But he did announce a big U-turn on the winter fuel payments while the campaign was taking place, and that may have helped get his candidate, Davy Russell, over the line.
This morning Starmer posted this messageon social media.
A win is a win, and this is good news for Labour. But, as the leading psephologist John Curtice has been telling the BBC this morning, the Reform UK vote is significant too. They came from nowhere to a strong third place, with 26% of the vote. TheConservatives, on 6%, only just avoided losing their deposit.
Here is our overnight story byLibby Brooks,Rachel KeenanandSeverin Carrell
I will be posting more reaction to the result, and analysis, shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
11am:Kemi Badenochgives a speech where she will say she is “increasingly of the view” that the UK should withdraw from European convention on human rights.
11.30am:Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
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