Reform and Greens aim high in volatile mayoral contests

Voters appear to be in a restless mood as Labour faces its first electoral test since its landslide general election victory. Reform UK is surging in the polls and the Liberal Democrats and Greens are also seeking to capitalise on voters' apparent disenchantment with Labour and the Conservatives in English local elections. But can they turn their poll ratings into real power on 1 May? We tested the waters in two mayoral contests in very different parts of the country. In the spring sun the mood in Hull does not scream political drama. Families out in busy shops and cafes, a salty breeze from the Humber cutting through the heat rising from the cobblestones. But beneath the calm, the race to become the first mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire combined authority is on a knife's edge. And the result is likely to tell us a lot about the febrile and fractured state of British politics in 2025. The political map of the Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority (Heyca) is a patchwork, covering around 600,000 people on the north side of the Humber estuary. Labour dominates in the city - with all three of its MPs - but the council has been run by the Lib Dems for the past three years. The Conservatives remain strong in the market towns and villages of the East Riding of Yorkshire - returning all the areas MPs and making up the largest group on the council. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has warned the party of "extremely difficult" local elections, but local Tory candidate Anne Hardley is confident. Hardley, who leads East Riding of Yorkshire Council under minority rule, admits the Conservatives "have had a bad press" after a record defeat in the general election last year. "But people are looking at the person rather than the politics in this," she argues. The seat is also a major target for Reform UK. It has selected local golden-boy Luke Campbell, Olympic champion bantamweight boxer at London 2012, as its candidate. As a self-styled political outsider born-and-bred in Hull, Campbell says he can "bridge the gap" between government and an area that's "being ignored". Campbell says he hopes to echo some of Donald Trump's success in the US, capitalising on a strong sense of voter disillusionment in the area. "We need to make Britain great again," he says. Local artist Nelly Richards says he believes Reform could take the mayoralty. Mr Richards, who owns a shop on Hull's main shopping parade framed by empty units, says people want to "send a message" to the major parties. Put off by Labour's record in government, life-long Labour voters Jill Cook and Jane O'Neil from Hessle say they may vote Reform for the first time. Mrs O'Neil says she has been hit by the Winter Fuel Payment cuts and Labourrejecting any compensation for women hit by changes to the state pension age. "I keep thinking, we haven't got enough money to do everything for everybody," Mrs O'Neil said and "maybe we need to pull up the drawbridge, even if just for a little bit". There is a definite sense of an "anyone but Reform" vote mobilising as well. Keith Whiles, a 78-year-old retiree, sums up the sentiment of many: "Luke Campbell - what does he know about politics?" The lifelong Labour voter says he will use his vote to get "someone who's a bit more experienced" into office. Hull was once rock-solid Labour territory - and their candidate Margaret Pinder would have been the natural home for voters looking to block Reform. But after less than a year in government, Labour's grip is loosening. Alfie Appleton, who owns Hull's independent clothing shop the Chinese Laundry said "Labour aren't my best friends at the moment". He is politically homeless after his natural party Labour "kicked us in the teeth with the budget this year" by raising National Insurance contributions while, cutting small business rate relief and raising minimum wages. Mike Ross, the Liberal Democrat leader of Hull City Council and candidate for mayor believes his party is best placed to scoop up votes. "There's a lot more people who are against Reform than pro. "Given how well we do across the patch in the local elections, we are probably the best placed party to stop Reform winning." The new mayor wasestablished under the previous Tory administration in 2023to push powers out of Westminster, copying the blueprint of London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Labour plan to expand the programme to every English region to simplify local government and boost economic growth. The Heyca mayor will be given a £13.3m a year budget,with key responsibilities to overseelocal transport and growth plans. Rowan Halstead says his party, the Yorkshire Party, are the only group "not shackled" by national allegiances so would put this money and people in the region first. Whoever becomes mayor will have big economic challenges to tackle. Hullis one of the most economically deprived areasin England. East Riding has one of the fastest growing economies in the country, butAnalysis by the Institute for Governmenthas found the productivity across the whole region still remains below the national average. A 150 miles away, in the West of England region, the political terrain looks different but just as volatile. Labour make up the majority of local MPs. But the party is reeling fromrape and child abuse allegations against incumbent Dan Norris- who was elected as a Labour candidate but has been expelled from the party while police investigate. Even before news of Norris' arrest broke, Labour's candidate Helen Godwin was pitching herself as a clean break from a previous regime that put West of England Combined Authority (Weca) inspecial measures due to infighting. Godwin, a Bristol City Councillor, told the BBC: "I would be operating an authority that is inclusive, lots of discussion and room for disagreement - but actually getting the hard work done." Despite some "tough decisions", Godwin says she does not see "a great shift away from Labour" since last July's election. The Liberal Democrats and Greens both sent MPs to parliament from constituencies in the area. Lib Dem Oli Henman and Green Party candidate Mary Page see themselves as the closest challengers to Labour. In 2021, Page stood to be the Lib Dem candidate for Mayor of Bristol - a role she later campaigned to abolish - before joining the Greens in 2023. She argues her shift to the Greens reflects a journey many voters have been on. "I'm having people telling me all the time 'I was a Labour supporter but now I'm joining the Greens," she said. "Not just voting but actively saying they're joining." One of these is new mother Pheobe Bracewell, who says she wants "to see more focus on sustainability of the planet". Aaron Banks- famed for his £1m pound donation to Nigel Farage's UKIP and his prominent role in the 2016 Brexit referendum - has attracted attention with his decision to stand for Reform UK. Independent Councillor Ian Scott has, meanwhile, told the BBC there is "an appetite" in the independent-minded West of England for someone outside the party system. The west of England is the most productive region outside London, according toWeca's own analysis. But while the economy looks good on paper, workers in the area contend with wages that have flatlined over the last 15 years while house prices increased to ten times average earnings. Plans fortrams and underground trains in Bristol- one of the largest cities in Europe not to have a mass transit system -fell apart last yearamid political bickering. Anger over slow buses and gridlocked roads is palpable when you talk to voters. "The bus service is awful and the price of this is exorbitant," NHS traffic marshal Craig Wimblin says. While he supports Reform, he plans to use his vote to oust the Green Party, who he blames for clogging the streets through alow traffic scheme in the east of the city. The Greens now face blowback from the voters over choices made by their councillors, the biggest group on Bristol City Council - includingdropped plansto collect black waste bins every four weeks. Political disengagement is another major factor in this election. The main response to questions about the mayoral race was a shrug of the shoulders. Turnout for the last Weca mayor was 36% and not expected to improve this time given there are no other local elections in the area this year. Council election in Hull last year saw a turnout of just 21%. Election experts Prof Colin Rallings and Prof Michael Thrasher argue low turnout is creating a chaotic political landscape - potentially handing power to small but driven groups of voters. The results of these contests could ripple beyond mayors actual powers over local transport or training budgets. The mayoralty will give the winners a platform, visibility and momentum to shape the political debate in the years before the next general election These races could be an up-close look at where national politics goes next.