Adefence industry reportclaiming that Russia requested a permanent base for its warplanes in Indonesia’s remote Papua region, right on Australia’s northern doorstep, sent Canberra into a tailspin. But in Indonesia, it was thefrenzy whipped up in Australia’s tight election campaignthat came as the real surprise.Foreign policy and defence experts are highly sceptical about the prospect that Jakarta would ever acquiesce to such a Russian request, and besides, it is hardly new. Moscow has sought permanent basing rights for its planes at Indonesia’s Biak airfield in Papua for almost half a century – and not once has it won approval.No foreign power has a military base in Indonesia, or permanent access to any of its domestic bases. Indonesia has enshrined in its constitution a commitment to a “free and independent” foreign policy, which is premised on non-alignment.“The probability [of accepting a Russian request] is low or nearly zero,” said Rahman Yaacob, a defence expert at Australia’s Lowy Institute. “The main reason is because of Indonesia’s domestic foreign policy, it’s basically non-aligned.”Gatra Priyandita, from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), agreed, saying: “It goes against the principle of basically providing no military bases to any overseas external powers.”Indonesia dismisses report Russia seeking to base aircraft in country as ‘simply not true’, Australia saysRead moreBut the prospect is tantalising. Indonesia is a vast archipelago that stretches across South-east Asia. The Papua region is an entry point into the Pacific, and the Biak airbase is just 1,300km from Darwin in northern Australia, where the US has a military base.Russia has continued this week with economic overtures. Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto welcomed Russia’s first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, to Jakarta to discuss free trade and mark 75 years of diplomatic relations between the two nations.Matthew Sussex, a visiting fellow at the Australia National University, said President Vladimir Putin has aspirations for Russia to become a “Euro-Pacific power”.“From the Russian perspective, they would have a strategic toehold in South-east Asia, which would allow it to conduct intelligence gathering, mainly against the United States in terms of Guam,” he said. “But also extending down towards increasingly important US bases in the Northern Territory and then potentially out west into the Indian Ocean.”Biak is also close to the Philippines, a close US ally in the region.Another possible reason for Russia’s interest in Biak is that it is close to the equator, which lends itself to space operations. Indonesia has plans to build a satellite launch site there, and Russia has been trying to negotiate with Indonesia to be involved, said Lowy’s Yaacob. Its airfield is quite rudimentary, so experts say it could make more sense as a site to launch low-Earth orbit satellites and high-altitude, long endurance drones.“But the negotiation has been slow. I understand Indonesia is trying to say no, but this is their way of saying no, to drag the negotiation on,” he said, referring to Indonesia’s cultural tendency to avoid direct rejection.The Trump factorIt’s also a matter of timing. As Donald Trump’s administration throws the post-war world order into question, the time is ripe for Russia to grow closer to its Indonesian partners and South-east Asia as a whole.Indonesia and Russia held their first joint naval drills last year, while President Prabowo Subianto visited Moscow last October. This February, Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, visited Jakarta to discuss deepening defence ties.Indonesia also recently joined the Brics grouping, of which Russia is a founding member. Russian-Indonesian trade has grown by 80% in the past five years,the Russian government reports, reaching $4.3bn in 2024.But the world’s fourth-most populous nation and South-east Asia’s largest economy, is a far cry from becoming the next client state, for Russia, or any other nationAt best, some say Russia might weasel out a concession, as it did in 2017, when it was granted access to Biak for about five days. (It had at the time also sought permanent access but that request was denied).But under pressure domestically, due to an ailing economy and controversial new military law, it would be an inopportune time for Prabowo to pull such an extraordinary move.On the unlikely chance Prabowo granted Russia its request, it would be an unprecedented divergence.Still, Russia’s opportunistic move raises questions about why exactly Putin is pitching for Biak now.“I think it was an attempt to say, ‘Well, ‘let’s see how far Jakarta will go,’” said Sussex, adding that with the US in retreat: “When there’s a vacuum, it gets filled.”Indonesia, of course, is not the only place into which Russia is seeking inroads.Between 2004 and 2023 Russia was the largest arms supplier in terms of value in South-east Asia,with 25% of a $42bn market, although that share has since dropped. But as Russia runs a wartime economy, it may be looking for new markets if the war in Ukraine ends.“Those [weapons] factories will not be easily switched over to making washing machines,” Sussex said, “so they will be looking to sell arms around the world, and obviously these Asian clients are cashed up and in a region where there’s a lot of tension, so willing buyers.”In war-torn Myanmar, Russia is a key ally and arms supplier. This year, Myanmar’s junta leader travelled to Moscow to deliver a gift of six elephants, which coincided with the delivery of six Russian fighter jets to Myanmar.The two countries also signed an agreement on developing a small-scale nuclear power plant in Myanmar. Russia has successfully locked in other countries to such long-standing partnerships, but it has struggled to replicate that success in South-east Asia.“This is a known play from Russia,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, editor of the UK-based Calibre Defence news and consultancy. “Its power station in Turkey will be operated and owned by Russia for at least a decade, and Rosatom has signed multiple agreements with African nations for similar projects, building close relations and dependencies as it does.”Even if Russia’s bid for Biak comes to nothing, Putin has put the idea in the minds of the US’s traditional regional allies, whose sense of security has already been disrupted.“Putin is often regarded as a master strategist,” said the ANU’s Sussex, “I think his skills are more in tactics, in being opportunistic, and making it look like strategy.”
Putin’s play for an Indonesian airbase was always likely to fail – but Russia has wider ambitions
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"Russia's Bid for Military Base in Indonesia Faces Strong Rejection Amid Non-Aligned Policy"
The Guardian
8.2
TruthLens AI Summary
Recent reports indicated that Russia sought to establish a permanent military base in Indonesia's Papua region, raising concerns in Australia due to its proximity. However, experts in foreign policy and defense have expressed skepticism regarding Indonesia's willingness to grant such a request, as the nation has maintained a longstanding commitment to a non-aligned foreign policy. For nearly fifty years, Russia has attempted to secure basing rights at Indonesia's Biak airfield but has never succeeded. This reflects Indonesia's constitutional commitment to a 'free and independent' foreign policy, which prohibits foreign military bases on its territory. Defense analysts, including Rahman Yaacob and Gatra Priyandita, emphasize that the likelihood of Indonesia accepting a Russian airbase is virtually non-existent, given its established principles against foreign military presence.
Despite this, the strategic location of Papua, particularly Biak's proximity to Australia and the Pacific, makes it an enticing target for Russia. Analysts suggest that Russia's interest may also extend to launching satellites, given the region's equatorial position. Additionally, recent economic engagements between Russia and Indonesia, including trade discussions and joint military exercises, signal an effort by Russia to deepen ties with Indonesia and Southeast Asia amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape. While Russia's ambitions in the region are evident, the prospect of Indonesia becoming a client state remains unlikely. The historical context of failed negotiations, coupled with Indonesia's growing economic independence and regional partnerships, suggests that any Russian military foothold in Papua would face significant hurdles. Ultimately, Russia's attempts may be more about testing the limits of Jakarta's foreign policy than about establishing a lasting military presence.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article outlines Russia's longstanding interest in establishing a military presence in Indonesia, particularly at the Biak airbase in Papua. This interest has resurfaced in the context of geopolitical tensions, especially with Australia's proximity to Indonesia. However, experts express skepticism about the likelihood of Indonesia conceding to such requests due to its non-aligned foreign policy.
Geopolitical Context and Reactions
The report indicates that the possibility of a Russian airbase in Indonesia has stirred significant anxiety in Australia, particularly during a tense election period. The article emphasizes that Indonesia has a constitutional commitment to a "free and independent" foreign policy, which inherently resists foreign military bases. This stance is supported by experts who suggest that Jakarta is unlikely to deviate from its principles of non-alignment.
Domestic and International Implications
Given Indonesia's strategic location and the ongoing diplomatic relations with Russia, the article hints at broader implications for regional security dynamics. The mention of economic discussions between Indonesia and Russia adds a layer of complexity, suggesting that while military cooperation may be off the table, economic ties might be strengthened.
Public Sentiment and Political Dynamics
The article appears to aim at influencing public sentiment in Australia by highlighting the dangers of foreign military entanglement in close proximity to its borders. The framing of Russia's ambitions might be intended to rally support for stronger national security measures or foreign policy adjustments in Canberra.
Hidden Agendas and Information Control
While the article presents a critical perspective on Russia's intentions, it may downplay or omit other geopolitical dynamics at play, such as the United States' military presence in the region and how that influences Indonesia's foreign policy decisions. This selective focus can create a narrative that potentially shapes public perception in a specific direction, potentially obscuring the complexities of international relations.
Manipulation and Trustworthiness
Examining the language used, the article does not overtly manipulate facts; rather, it presents a critical analysis backed by expert opinions. However, the emphasis on Russia's "ambitions" could be construed as a subtle attempt to paint Russia in a negative light, especially in the context of Western media narratives. The overall reliability of the article seems high, as it references expert analysis and provides a historical context for Russia's actions. Potential outcomes from this article could include increased public concern regarding national security in Australia, which may influence government policy and international relations strategies. Moreover, the portrayal of Russia may resonate with certain political factions that prioritize defense and foreign policy considerations. The article likely appeals to communities concerned with national security, foreign policy, and geopolitical stability. Supporters of a strong military presence or those wary of Russian influence may find the content particularly compelling. In terms of market impact, the article might influence defense stocks or companies involved in military logistics, as heightened concerns about security can lead to increased government spending on defense. The focus on international relations also ties into broader market sentiments regarding stability in Southeast Asia. This analysis does not suggest any direct involvement of artificial intelligence in the writing process. However, if AI were used, it might have influenced the tone or presentation of information, aiming for clarity and engagement. The potential for AI to create narratives that align with specific agendas should always be considered, although there’s no direct evidence of such manipulation in this case. Ultimately, the article serves to inform and provoke thought regarding Russia's geopolitical maneuvers, while also reflecting the complexities of Indonesia's foreign policy. The underlying purpose seems to be raising awareness about potential security threats and the implications of foreign military presence in the region.