The feud between Elon Musk andDonald Trumpis a godsend for Democrats, a headache for the president and a problem for Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House. Between now and the Fourth of July, Trump expects congressional Republicans to deliver a badly needed win. After more than four months back in the Oval Office, he still lacks a major legislative achievement.
Republicans control both the House and Senate, but the public sees goose eggs on the scoreboard. Almost daily, the courts upend the president’s executive orders. Slim legislative majorities and government by rage come with drawbacks.
Trump’s popularity is under water. The afterglow of inauguration is gone. His so-called Liberation Day has morphed into Groundhog Day, each day beginning and ending as it did the day before. Except Groundhog Day wasn’t a horror movie.
Substantively, Trump’s tariff hikes have brought little by way of jobs or negotiations. On Wednesday, the payroll company ADP reported that monthly US job growth stands at a two-year low. The US dollar weakens, and interest rates climb. Home-buying belongs more and more to the old and wealthy. So much for Republicans having the interests of working Americans at heart.
Yet all is not lost for Trump. He has recast the Republican party in his image. What was once the party of Lincoln belongs to him – Musk, the former king of Doge, be damned. By historical standards, Trump is doing OK. His disapproval numbers stand at ameager seven pointshigher than his approval rating. At the end of April, he was staring at a double-digit deficit.
The stock market since rebounded. His end is again nowhere near nigh. What autumn yields remains to be seen. Beyond that, Republicans approve ofTrump, 87-11, a mirror image of his standing among Democrats. He also outpaces Musk by 20 points among the party faithful.
An acquired taste, Musk wore out his welcome in the West Wing much as he did in April in Wisconsin. He mojo ebbs. Two months ago, Wisconsinites defied Musk and elected a liberal to the state supreme court. In the run-up to the election, Musk had handed out $1m checks to voters. He also appeared on stage wearing a giant yellow cheese hat. His nod to the state’s dairy industry and the Green Bay Packers failed to amuse or garner votes, much the same way his apparent Nazi salutes came up short.
Money doesn’t always buy Musk love.
Turning to Speaker Johnson: last month he cobbled together a bill that satisfied the needs of his caucus and the demands of his president. Now, he watches the world’s richest man threaten to transform it all into a pile of ash.
Already, Johnson complains that Musk declines his phone calls. Then again, Musk has no reason to take them. Unlike Trump or Musk, Johnson’s clout is derivative. Without the president to lean on, he appears limited. Daddy standing in his corner makes all the difference. House Republicans nod at Johnson because they fear Trump.
Musk’s barrage is relentless. Think Tony Stark, the alter ego of Ironman, and you get the picture. “Was it all bullshit?”Trump askedof promised budget savings that never materialized. The South Africa native quickly returned fire.
Mincing no words, he branded the “big, beautiful bill” a “disgusting abomination”. Chuck Schumer, the Democrats’ leader in the Senate, couldn’t have scripted things any better.
Musk stays on the warpath.
“No one who actually reads the bill should be able to stomach it,”he posted to social mediaon Wednesday.
“Bankrupting America is NOT ok!
“KILL the BILL.”
On Thursday, things escalated; now Musk says hewants Trump impeached. Battle lines are drawn.
What the Senate eventually passes is a work-in-progress. The bill authored by the House will probably be amended. Already, Rand Paul of Kentucky has announced his opposition, earning Trump’s ire. Utah’s Mike Lee too postures as a “no”. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin demands deeper cuts.
If four Republicans give a thumbs down, the bill fails. In the end, a legislative version of Frankenstein’s monster is more likely, a pastiche pieced together behind closed doors, a matter of political necessity for Trump and his party.
“Trump tries to shore up support for megabill among Senate GOP at White House meeting,”a headline blared on Wednesday night.
As drafted, the “big, beautiful bill” addresses an array of core issues, including raising the debt ceiling to avoid a default and financial cataclysm, and making permanent the Trump tax cuts, set to expire at the end of the year. Funding for the wall is also on the line.
If the BBB failed, under the rules of the Senate, Republicans would be forced to work with Democrats to achieve a compromise, something almost unheard of these days and an anathema to the president and Maga. That would mean egg on Trump’s face, but the public would probably enjoy the spectacle.
Maybe Elon would, too. On Thursday,he posted: “Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate. Such ingratitude.” Indeed!
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992