Aseries of war games inTaiwanhas highlighted significant vulnerabilities in how the island and its supporters would respond to a Chinese annexation attempt, as well as growing questions over how much reliance can be placed on the volatile Trump administration.
Last week former senior military and government officials from the US,Japan, and Taiwan convened in Taipei for a tabletop exercise, led by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation. The event was described as the first civilian-led military simulation held in Taiwan, testing responses to a hypothetical attempt by China to annex the territory.
Three teams were presented with scenarios set in 2030 butbased on China’s current strategiesand their expected military advancements. A fourth team represented China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), while a control group of the games’ organisers drove proceedings and ran feedback sessions.
The escalating scenarios began with suspicious military movements inside China, and heightened propaganda, before progressing tolarge military drillsnear Taiwan, a blockade, and finally a missile attack and full-scale invasion. Along the way, surprise incidents were thrown at the teams, including a missile strike on a Taiwanese coastguard ship, Chinese restrictions on all international shipping nearby, and North Korea firing test missiles over Japan.
The exercises highlighted how much the defence of Taiwan hinges on assumptions, with for example, the US team quickly offering military defence to Taiwan before the scenarios escalated into a fully fledged war. Such unequivocal US support is by no means guaranteed.
The US refuses to confirm if it will defend Taiwan militarily, under a decades-old doctrine of “strategic ambiguity” designed to discourage either side from making provocative moves. Joe Biden signalled that – under his presidency at least – the US military would probably back Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
The current US administration is stillprojecting an imageof the superpower protector, but the volatility of Trump and his team has sparkedconcern about its continuing support for Taiwan.
“It is the politicians who decide whether to engage in conflict; the military determines how to conduct it,” said Adm Lee Hsi-min, former head of Taiwan’s armed forces and chair of the games’ co-host, the Center for Peace and Security.
The US team’s justification for its hard and early responses were to be “a step ahead of China”, hoping to deter it from escalating further in the face of an American show of strength. It pushed back on suggestions from the control team that they – alongside Taiwan and Japan – had “overreacted” by using a military response when China’s actions had not yet involved PLA deployment.
“The view from the US is that this part of the world, and this relationship is on a hair trigger, and the worry is that any incident of some significance could cause very rapid escalation,” said a US team member.
Analysts watching the games thought the US team’s responses showed there appeared to be clear trigger points for US involvement.
“The red line for Washington, based on the outcome of the exercise, seems to be Beijing’s initiation of a blockade,” said William Yang, a senior north-east Asia analyst for the International Crisis Group who witnessed the two days of games.
“[But] the lack of coherence and clarity in the Trump administration’s Taiwan policy has exacerbated scepticism toward Washington’s support for Taiwan since he won the election last November.”
The US team and control group were also focused on Taiwanese willingness to fight, with US leaders proposing formal recognition of Taiwan at one stage in part to boost local civilian and military morale. Taiwan’s military still struggles with recruitment and training, although US officials say they are pleased with recent progress.
“The ability of Taiwan to defend itself against Chinese aggression, and the willingness to do so has been increasing and that’s very positive,” said participant Adm Dennis Blair, a retired chief of the US Pacific Command and former director of national intelligence.
The games raised other vulnerabilities, particularly among the Taiwanese strategists, who were initially overcautious and then overreacted, according to the assessment of control group supervisors.
An early decision by the Taiwan team, to not respond to a PLA incursion inside the island’s 12-nautical mile marine border, was ridiculed by local media, and an attempt to deflect a key decision by saying it was for a country’s president was chided by organisers.
Yang said it highlighted the pressure on Taiwan to form a consistent plan on how and when to respond to China’s aggression. “Without a set of clear rules, Taiwan risks overdoing its responses, which would give China the legitimate reason to launch a military attack, or being caught off guard, which could lead to a rapid loss.”
Japan’s team also expressed concern about minimal communication from Taiwan, saying the team did not adequately convey what it wanted from Japan during scenarios.
“The [tabletop exercise] seemed quite realistic, especially in regards to Taiwan’s communication,” said participant Takei Tomohisa, a former chief of staff of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force. “The [exercise] clearly showed limitations and some malfunctions.”
Yang said it revealed the impact of Taiwan’s non-involvement in regional military exercises with its neighbours, an event that would probably be seen as a red line by Beijing, but which also hampered Taiwan’s ability to coordinate with partners.
“It enhances the likelihood of setting the wrong expectations about how neighbouring countries might respond, which could lead to miscalculation in Taiwan’s own military planning,” Yang said.
Lee told reporters at the end of the exercise that the Taiwan team had experienced a steep learning curve, and shown big improvements and greater agility over the course of the four scenarios.
“We can lose 100 times in a war game, but we hope we can win the one time it happens in the real world.”
A final report will be submitted to the Taiwan government in coming weeks.
Additional reporting by Jason Tzu Kuan Lu