Downing Street has “listened” and “honoured” the promises it made on changes to the welfare bill, one of the key rebels,Meg Hillier, has said, saying she would vote for the bill later today.Jessica Elgothas the story.
Here is the full text ofRachael Maskell’s reasoned amendment to kill the UC and Pip bill (see9.08am), which has been signed by 39 Labour MPs.
That this house, whilst noting the need for the reform of the social security system, and agreeing with the government’s principles for providing support to people into work and protecting people who cannot work, declines to give a second reading to the universal credit and personal independent payment bill because its provisions have not been subject to a formal consultation with disabled people, or co-produced with them, or their carers; because the Office for Budget Responsibility is not due to publish its analysis of the employment impact of these reforms until the autumn of 2025; because the majority of the additional employment support funding will not be in place until the end of the decade; because while acknowledging protection for current claimants, the government has yet to produce its own impact assessment on the impact of future claimants of personal independence payment (Pip) and universal credit limited capability for work and related activity and the number of people, including children, who will fall into poverty or experience worsening mental or physical health as a result, nor how many carers will lose carers allowance; because the government has not published an assessment of the impact of these reforms on health or care needs; and because the government is still awaiting the findings of the minister for social security and disability’s review into the assessment for Pip and Sir Charlie Mayfield’s independent review into the role of employers and government in boosting the employment of disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.
The Liberals Democrats, the SNP, the Greens and the Independent Alliance have also tabled their own reasoned amendments against the bill. They areon the order paper.
Good morning.Keir Starmerfaces the toughest Commons challenge of his premiership this evening when MPs vote on the universal credit (UC) and personal independence payment (Pip) bill with all commentators confident he will fact a big revolt. He is expected to win – but, on this point, the Westminster commentariat isn’t 100% confident; it looks very tight.
Governments almost never lose votes and there are good reasons for this. One is that they normally have a majority. (Starmer’s working majority is 165.) But the main reason is that the one person who normally has the best intelligence as to how the vote will go is the government chief whip (Alan Campbell in this administration) and if the chief whip isn’t confident that they have the numbers, ministers will offer last-minute concessions. Starmer has already offered concessions worth around £3.3bn on this bill, but there’s a good chance we might get more during the debate – perhaps relating to when the new Pip rules recommended by the Stephen Timms review next yearwill start applying.
So Starmer should win. But he has not won yet, and this morning there is fresh evidence that it is going to be very close.
Meg Hillier, the Labour chair of the Treasury committee, has withdrawn the reasoned amendment to kill the bill that was signed by more than 120 Labour MPs. But overnightRachael Maskellhas tabled another, very similarreasoned amendmentthat would have the same effect. It has been signed by 39 Labour MPs – not enough to overturn Starmer’s majority on their own – but in an interview on BBC Breakfast this morning she claimed that “loads more” Labour MPs supported her. When it was put to her that 39 Labour MPs was not enough, she replied:
There are loads more, loads more … I engaged with so many people yesterday that were saying, ‘I’m not signing a reasoned amendment, but I am voting down the bill.’
There is no guarantee that Maskell’s reasoned amendment will be called. If the Conservative party had tabled one, that would normally have taken precedent, but they haven’t. The Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, could decide to call none of the reasoned amendment, and just go straight to a yes/no vote on the bill. But that would not make much difference, because all theLabourMPs who would vote for Maskell’s amendment would presumably vote against the bill too.
This morningSam Coates, the Sky News deputy political editor, told hisPolitics at Sam and Anne’s podcastthat one of the rebels told him last night that they expected 68 Labour MPs to vote against the bill, with 30/40 abstentions. Coates said 68 votes against, and 30 abstentions, would wipe out Starmer’s majority by one. That was not necessarily the expected outcome, Coates said, because things could change during the day.
And in theirLondon Playbook briefingfor Politico,Sam BlewettandBethany Dawsonreport on this exchange with a Labour official.
Cool heads are not prevailing:One Labour official texted POLITICO’s Dan Bloom last night: “The heat has clearly gotten to the PLP — who are about to shoot themselves in the head and then attempt to blame the same people who got them elected for blood being everywhere.”
Here is our overnight story byJessica ElgotandPippa Crerar.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am:Keir Starmer chairs cabinet.
11.30am:Rachel Reeves, chancellor, takes questions in the Commons.
Noon:Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
After 12.30am:Liz Kendall, work and pensions secretary, opens the debate on the UC and Pip bill.
7pm: MPs vote on the bill.
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