On the Saturday after he called the federal election,Anthony Albanesehosted members of the travelling media pack for an informal drink at the Lodge. There was light rain in Canberra, forcing an event that would usually have taken place in the garden to be held inside in a relaxed sitting room with Jeffrey Smart paintings and Albanese’s record player in the corner.
For a man facing a tough re-election fight, the prime minister appeared confident and relaxed. Mixing with his partner, Jodie Hayden, and senior ministers including Katy Gallagher and Mark Butler, Albanese told sceptical journalists that Labor was not only on track to hold its majority, but would win Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson on 3 May.
Labor had been working for weeks on understanding the Queensland electorate and preparing to back inthird-time candidate Ali Franceto beat the opposition leader on his home turf. In retrospect, Albanese’s confidence was well placed, but five weeks out from election day it sounded a lot like bluster.
But, after he convened a packed caucus meeting at Parliament House on Friday, the scale of the government’s re-election is clear for the first time.
Instead of slipping into minority, Albanese defied history and defied the commentators. Labor is on track to hold more than 90 seats in the lower house, and with the Coalition smashed, on the numbers alone Albanese could have the next election in the bag already.
The result means the man who came to Canberra to fight Tories now has the opportunity to live up to the records of previous residents of the Lodge. Albanese told voters he needed multiple terms in office to achieve a lasting legacy, and now he has the chance to deliver.
“We don’t seek power for its own sake,” Albanese said on Friday. “We seek power in order to deliver for the people who need Labor to be in government, and to develop a better nation. That is our objective, each and every day.”
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He nominated stronger healthcare and education, a properly functioning disability system, improved economic and social outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, and respect for the immigrants who have woven the country’s multicultural fabric, as the government’s business-as-usual work.
Albanese himself has easily stepped back into the work of being prime minister, holding calls with world leaders and preparing to return to the international stage in a visit to Indonesia on Tuesday next week. He plans to bring MPs back to parliament in late July, when the work of legislating Labor’s election promises gets under way. Late next month he will travel to the G7 summit in Canada, a trip that could include a visit to the White House to see the US president,Donald Trump.
Proud to point out that he has been often underestimated throughout his career, Albanese will need ambition for a series of urgent challenges.
One is to finish the job on Australia’s transition to renewable energy and reduce emissions in line with yet-to-be decided 2035 targets. Labor’s own environmental network this week pushed for a target of 70% of 2005 levels, and for the government’s stalled “nature positive” laws to be passed by parliament in full by this time next year.
The prime minister overruled the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, on a plan to pass the legislation before Christmas, delaying the establishment of a national environment protection agency to avoid being seen to be making deals with the Greens so close to an election. He haspromised a whole new model. Plibersek’s future in the portfolio has been the subject of speculation ahead of the ministerial reshuffle due on Monday.
On closing the Indigenous disadvantage gap, Albanese has pointed to Labor’s promise of a comprehensive economic policy as a sign of his intentions. Announced at last year’s Garma festival in Arnhem Land, the plan is designed to boost outside investment and allow developers and job creators to work alongside traditional owners to improve communities in northern Australia and in regional centres. Every government has failed to achieve improvements in Indigenous affairs. Labor has promised to be different.
Another difficult but pressing challenge is slowing out-of-control growth inthe NDIS, in part by shifting early intervention services for children with autism and developmental conditions back to state and territory government budgets.
Growing at about 20% per year, the scheme has become one of the single largest budgetary challenges for Labor, alongside paying interest on government debt. Just a decade old, the $50bn NDIS already costs more to run per year than aged care, Medicare, federal hospitals funding and the pharmaceutical benefits scheme.
State premiers and disability ministers are unlikely to take on the so-called “foundational support” services without another budget injection from Albanese and Jim Chalmers.
Even a casual observer knows that will be difficult. The budget faces long-term structural challenges and federal government debt is due to hit $1tn as soon as September, putting real pressure on the AAA credit rating. Albanese showed no appetite for major reform of the tax or superannuation systems in Canberra this week.
Privately, some in Canberra are warning Labor against falling into the trap of hubris from the scale of the election victory. Others note the fragmentation of the primary vote across the country and wild new funding sources slicing and dicing voters at elections means almost anything could happen the next time voters go to the polls.
Paul Keating, a past resident of the Lodge, famously said “when you change the government you change the country”. But the reverse can be true as well: keeping the same government gives Labor opportunity to deliver on its promises of long-term reform. But if misunderstood, the election outcome also brings landmark risk.
Albanese’s hardest task has only just started.