The roads are hot in Melton, a satellite town on the north-western fringe ofMelbourne. Juvenile trees planted alongside new homes, which sprawl for kilometres on end, are yet to provide shade.
The residents of these homes and millions like them across the nation may be key to this election. Just ask the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, who believes “a battle of the burbs” will decide the victor on 3 May. Who responds best to the cost-of-living crisis wins.
Electorates such as Hawke are where the cost-of-living crisis has hit hardest. Basic services such as healthcare, education, public transport and roads have not kept pace with population growth. People here are concerned about rising crime. But perhaps most worryingly for Labor, there’s a sense that voters have been taken for granted.
When the campaign began, this cocktail of discontent had Liberal strategists eyeing off once safe Labor seats such as Bruce in Melbourne’s south-east, Werriwa in south-western Sydney and Blair, south-west of Brisbane.
Liberals always conceded these seats, often described as Labor strongholds, would be very difficult to win, but they felt the issues were in their favour. However, campaign stumbles – including theditching of its return-to-office policy for public servants– have tempered expectations among some in the party.
Melton is the largest town in the electorate of Hawke, which Labor holds by a margin of 7.6%. It would take a massive swing for Labor to lose, but party operatives acknowledge there are long-term frustrations at play that could send Labor’s share of the vote backwards.
“If you talk to anyone here, one of the top issues they’ll have is transport”, says Sobur Dhieu, a 24-year-old Melton resident, who, like many of her neighbours, spends more than two hours a day travelling to work or study in Melbourne.
“Melton just deserves a lot more investment and a long-term vision that is not just limited to residential growth,” she says. “In the outer suburbs, our experience is so much worse that those who live closer into the city. That is something that’s just taken for granted.”
Population growth has also outpaced infrastructure and services in Werriwa, held by Labor on a margin of 5.8% in 2022 (reduced to a notional 5.3% after redistribution). Multiple surveys have found homes in that electorate are now the most financially stressed in the nation. It also has high rates of rental stress.
While Labor champions its tax cuts, the Coalition believes its plan to cut fuel excise for 12 months is a vote winner – many households in outer suburban electorates have more than one car.
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The Liberal candidate, Simmone Cottom, declined to speak to Guardian Australia, but the party’s national campaign spokesperson, James Paterson, says voters in Hawke and others on Melbourne’s fringe such as McEwen and Holt “have a sense of being taken for granted by Labor”.
“They feel that they haven’t got the infrastructure investment that other suburbs, or more marginal seats, have,” Paterson says. “They spend a lot of time in traffic and they are very resentful about that.”
The member for Hawke, Labor’s Sam Rae, is well aware of community frustration. He says workers in his electorate, whom he describes as the backbone of the economy, are left sitting in traffic for hours.
But he lays blame on the Coalition, accusing them of “failing to invest a single dollar” in the western freeway when in office. In early March, federal and state Labor governments announced $1bn for an upgrade to the arterial road, which connects Melton to Bacchus Marsh and Caroline Springs. The Coalition has matched this commitment in opposition.
There are many ways to measure inequality but Caitlin Caruana, a lawyer who provides free advice to people in Melbourne’s north-west, sees it every day.
In Melton, there is one public library for every 28,000 young people. In Yarra or Port Phillip councils in Melbourne’s inner-city, there is one for every 3,000 young people. It’sa similar storywith pools. In Melton, there is one for every 48,000 young people. In the city of Melbourne, there’s one for every 3,000 young people.
While pools and libraries are unlikely to decide the election, Caruana says these statistics give an insight into how people feel in outer suburbs across the country.
“People just want a fair go,” she says. “The services on offer have not kept pace with the rate of population growth in this region.
“People waking up in hot houses, making their way to a regional station for a train that doesn’t run as frequently, just to get to work in the city as they can’t find a job in their own area. They’re already arriving probably late, probably having had a bad night sleep. After a hot day, there are not enough pools for everybody to go to.
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“When you think of how these things add up, over the course of a day, it really is frustrating for people.”
Housing affordability remains the top concern in Hawke according to surveys by the Salvation Army, but access to healthcare ranks second.
The Salvation Army’s social justice stocktake report found a quarter of residents in Hawke believe they are waiting longer than acceptable for a GP appointment – higher than the national average.
The results surprised the charity’s spokesperson, Warren Elliot, who says they didn’t even ask about this issue in the previous survey in 2022.
“The further we get out from Melbourne, the more this is an issue. This is showing up as a significant factor, particularly around bulk-billing,” Elliot says.
But it didn’t surprise Rae, who acknowledges “demand for healthcare had outpaced supply”. He believes his team has started to address the issue.
“When we announced we were going to do urgent care clinics during the last election, I was a massive pain in the arse to ensure Sunbury was on the list, right from the get go,” Rae says. “As soon as we got one in Sunbury, we immediately started working for Melton. We now have that too.”
In Werriwa, about 65% of people listed mental health as an issue in their community in a Salvos survey, exacerbated by housing insecurity, poverty, family and domestic violence.
At almost every press conference during this campaign, Albanese has appeared in front of Medicare logos. At times, he brandishes a Medicare card to cameras. The Coalition insist this is all part of scare campaign suggesting they would gut Medicare. Paterson says it also suggests a vulnerability in outer-suburban seats.
“Because there are traditional Labor supporters who are contemplating voting against them for the first time, they are trying to rest on traditional brand equities, like health and Medicare, to bring them back in the fold,” Paterson says.
In Melbourne’s west, Labor strategists are also concerned the issue of crime could hurt them. Victoria’s crime rate hasreached its highest level in almost a decade, driven by a cohort of repeat child offenders amid a cost-of-living crisis.
“You can’t talk about Melton without addressing the public safety issue,” Dhieu says. “A lot of people are concerned about young people and higher rates of crime. That is definitely something that’s of concern.”
Crime is largely a state issue, but that hasn’t stopped Coalition MPs highlighting it on the campaign trail. In early March, Cottom said in a campaign video it was the number one issue raised with her.
“There are too many house break-ins, car thefts, bombings of tobacco stores – people are afraid to leave their homes,” Cottom said, while campaigning with Paterson. In a video shared on Facebook, Paterson said: “This is what happens when you have a weak state government and a weak federal government that doesn’t put community safety first.”
A few days after that video was recorded and after a sustained campaign from some media outlets, the state government toughened bail laws to deal with the issue. It sparked criticism from legal and human rights groups who warned the changes would lead to the increased criminalisation of Aboriginal and other marginalised communities.
Labor figures hope the legislation will help address concerns about crime, blunting attacks from Coalition MPs visiting the electorate.
“The community needs to have faith in the justice system,” Rae says. “That was not the case and the Victorian government embarked on its review into bail laws. I have made people aware of what the community views are and their expectations, in terms of what the state is doing on bail and justice. I am accountable to my community and I take that really seriously.”