The short-lived reign of La Niña has come to an end. La Niña – a natural climate pattern that can influence weather worldwide – arrived at the start of this year but had a very short and odd life. The atmosphere first started to take on a La Niña look last fall, but the cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that typically mark its arrival didn’t get with the program until the end of the year. Once they finally did, they only maintained La Niña levels for a few months. Now, neither La Niña nor its counterpart El Niño are present and a so-called neutral phase has begun, according to a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report. This neutral phase is forecast to last through the rest of spring, summer and into at least early fall. Forecasters closely monitor La Niña and El Niño because they influence global weather in a way that’s largely consistent and predictable well in advance. But La Niña’s demise doesn’t flip an on-off switch in the atmosphere. Its fingerprints will linger even if they could be limited by its duration and strength, according to Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center. It’s “very difficult” to quantify exactly how long and to what extent La Niña’s ghost could stick around, L’Heureux said. Months elapsed before the impact of an extremely strong El Niño dwindled. It played a part in record-warm global temperatures the last two years. What could happen to the weather in the coming months without La Niña and El Niño is less clear-cut, but forecasters are already making predictions. How hurricanes and temperatures could respond to the change There will not be a clear influence from El Niño or La Niña to help guide forecasts on how this upcoming Atlantic hurricane season – which starts in June – will unfold. Neutral conditions basically have coin-flip odds to persist through the peak of hurricane season this year, which stretches from mid-August to mid-October. La Niña typically leads to a much more active hurricane season while El Niño is more prone to suppressing hurricane activity – except for in 2023. Forecasters need to factor in other influences without either heavy-hitter. Lingering abnormal ocean warmth and a planet warming due to fossil fuel pollution have at least one group of experts thinking this hurricane season will be a busy one. Oceans are incredibly slow to cool, especially since about 90% of the world’s excess heat produced by burning planet-heating fossil fuels are stored in them. Global ocean temperatures were at record highs for large parts of 2023 and 2024. El Niño transitioned to neutral conditions shortly before the start of last year’s incredibly active hurricane season. Extremely warm oceans churned out 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes – including now retired Helene and Milton – slammed into the US. Neutral conditions also offer a somewhat muddled influence on upcoming temperature and precipitation patterns in the US, especially during the summer, but there’s still a lot of time for forecasters to zero in. The latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show plenty of above-average warmth coming through the reminder of spring and into summer. Above average temperatures are forecast nearly everywhere in the US aside from the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Tier through June. Above average temperatures could spread across the entire Lower 48 for summer. Temperatures continue to rise globally, and there are more frequent and extreme bouts of heat from planet-warming pollution. That, along with an expansive drought in parts of the US, are the reasons for the toasty forecast over the next several months. Prolonged heat and dry weather tend to get stuck in a loop where each factor continuously makes the other worse – something that unfolded to the extreme last summer.
La Niña is dead. Here’s what to expect in the coming months
TruthLens AI Suggested Headline:
"La Niña Ends, Neutral Phase Begins with Uncertain Weather Implications"
CNN
8.1
TruthLens AI Summary
La Niña, the climate pattern known for its global weather influences, has officially ended after a brief and atypical presence. Initially, signs of La Niña appeared last fall, but the expected cooler ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific did not manifest until late in the year. Once established, La Niña lasted only a few months before transitioning into a neutral phase, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This neutral phase is anticipated to persist through the remainder of spring, summer, and into early fall. While the absence of both La Niña and its counterpart El Niño simplifies certain forecasts, the residual effects of La Niña could still impact weather patterns. As noted by climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, the lasting influence of La Niña may be difficult to quantify, yet its effects can linger, complicating predictions for the upcoming months.
The transition to neutral conditions leaves forecasters grappling with uncertainties regarding the impending Atlantic hurricane season, which begins in June. Historically, La Niña tends to increase hurricane activity, whereas El Niño suppresses it. With neither phenomenon in play, the upcoming hurricane season presents a more unpredictable scenario. Experts suggest that lingering warm ocean temperatures and the ongoing effects of climate change may contribute to a busy hurricane season, despite the lack of direct influence from La Niña or El Niño. Additionally, forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures will dominate much of the United States during the summer months, exacerbated by ongoing drought conditions. The combination of prolonged heat and dry weather can create a feedback loop, worsening each condition, as seen in previous years. Overall, while the absence of La Niña and El Niño introduces uncertainty, the implications of rising global temperatures continue to shape weather patterns across the nation.
TruthLens AI Analysis
The article provides an overview of the end of La Niña, a climate phenomenon that has implications for global weather patterns. It discusses the transition to a neutral phase and its potential impacts on weather forecasting, particularly concerning the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
Purpose of the Article
The intent behind the publication appears to be informational, aiming to educate the public on the dynamics of climate patterns and their influence on weather. By highlighting the end of La Niña and the onset of a neutral climate phase, the article seeks to prepare readers for the uncertainty in weather predictions, especially regarding hurricanes.
Public Perception
The article intends to foster awareness about the complexities of climate phenomena and their effects on weather forecasting. It underscores the unpredictability that arises when neither La Niña nor El Niño is present, which may evoke concern or curiosity among readers about the potential for extreme weather events.
What Might Be Hidden
While the article provides a factual recount of the situation, it does not delve into the broader implications of climate change or the socio-economic factors that might be exacerbated by changing weather patterns. This omission could suggest an attempt to focus solely on immediate weather phenomena rather than the long-term impacts of climate change.
Manipulative Elements
The article's manipulative potential is moderate, primarily due to its choice of language and framing. It emphasizes uncertainty in weather patterns without fully addressing the implications of climate change, which could lead to a misunderstanding of the relationship between natural climate variability and human-induced changes.
Trustworthiness of the Information
The article appears to be credible, based on references to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and expert opinions from climate scientists. The discussion of La Niña's lifecycle and its impacts is consistent with established scientific understanding.
Societal Implications
The information provided could have significant implications for disaster preparedness and response in communities vulnerable to hurricanes. If the neutral phase leads to unpredictable weather patterns, it may strain emergency services and impact local economies reliant on tourism and agriculture.
Target Audience
The article likely appeals to individuals interested in climate science, meteorology, and environmental issues. It may resonate particularly with communities that are susceptible to extreme weather events, as they may seek to understand the potential risks associated with upcoming seasons.
Market Impact
Regarding financial markets, the uncertainty in weather patterns could affect sectors such as agriculture, insurance, and tourism. Companies that depend on seasonal weather conditions may experience fluctuations in stock prices based on the forecasts related to this neutral phase.
Geopolitical Context
While this article does not explicitly address global power dynamics, the impacts of climate change and extreme weather can strain international relations, particularly in regions prone to natural disasters. The discussion fits into a larger narrative concerning climate resilience and adaptation strategies.
AI Influence
It is possible that AI was employed in drafting or editing the article, particularly in organizing the data and presenting it in a cohesive manner. The structured format and clear explanations might suggest an algorithmic approach to content creation. If AI was involved, it may have influenced the clarity and conciseness of the information presented. In conclusion, this article provides a comprehensive overview of the end of La Niña and its implications for weather forecasting. While it is largely factual and credible, its focus on immediate phenomena may overlook broader discussions surrounding climate change. The information is valuable for public awareness, yet it could benefit from a more expansive perspective on the interconnectedness of climate patterns and long-term environmental issues.