Iran has said it will soon start releasing information from a hoard of Israeli nuclear secrets it claims to have obtained, as European countries push for a vote this week on reimposing UN sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear programme.
The unverified claims by Iranian intelligence of a massive leak of Israeli secrets may be designed to turn the focus away from what Iran argues is its own excessively monitored civil nuclear programme.
On Sunday, Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, claimed Tehran had obtained “a vast collection of strategic and sensitive [Israeli] documents, including plans and data on the nuclear facilities”. He added evidence would be released shortly, and implied some of the documentation was linked to Israel’s arrest of two Israeli nationals, Roi Mizrahi and Almog Attias, over alleged spying for Iran.
Even within Iran there is scepticism that Iranian agents could have obtained such dramatic intelligence. The claim may be designed to warn off Israel from acting on its repeated threat to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites since Iranian insight into Israel’s own nuclear programme would increase the risk of effective Iranian reprisals.
European powers are preparing to press for a vote at the quarterly board meeting of the nuclear inspectorate the IAEA in Vienna, which starts on Monday, that could lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions in October. France, Germany and the UK will cite a 20-page comprehensive report commissioned from the IAEA secretariat on Iran’s failure to comply with the nuclear deal agreed in 2015, and Tehran’s years-long failure to answer questions about aspects of its previous nuclear programme.
Members of the IAEA board will be asked to study a report showing Iran has enriched 400kg of uranium to a purity of 60%, close to weapons-grade, and judged to be enough to make 10 nuclear bombs. Moreover, the Iranian stockpile of uranium has increased by 50% since the last report in March.
The three leading European powers will cite the report in calling for a motion declaring Iran is in violation of its safeguards obligations, the first such finding since 2005, and the necessary precursor to reimposing UN sanctions in October when the 2015 deal expires. Due to the way that deal was framed, Russia and China cannot veto the reimposition of UN sanctions.
Iran has already threatened countermeasures if the IAEA board says it is in breach, likely to include a further cutback to access by UN weapons inspectors, and a further speeding up of enrichment. Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said that since the last time the IAEA board censured Tehran Iran had increased 60% enriched uranium production sevenfold and launched 20 cascades of advanced centrifuges.
If the motion is passed, the French, Germans, and British then have until 18 October to determine whether they wish to reimpose the sanctions provided for in the 2015 deal. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has warned: “Falsely accusing Iran of violating safeguards – based on shoddy and politicised reporting – is clearly designed to produce a crisis. Mark my words, as Europe ponders another major strategic mistake, Iran will react strongly against any violation of its rights. Blame lies solely and fully with irresponsible actors who stop at nothing to gain relevance.”
The US and Iran have yet to name a new date for the resumption of bilateral talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, focused on whether Iran should be permitted continue to enrich uranium domestically, an issue that Iran sees as central to its sovereignty. The US, in public at least, insists enrichment must stop altogether as the only sure way of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
Donald Trump has shown a surprising willingness to cut a deal with Iran, despite in 2018 taking the US out of the nuclear deal, which was reached with Iran by Barack Obama. The US president has reportedly set a 60-day deadline for the talks, which expires on 11 June, and has accused Iran of slow-walking the process, though previous Trump deadlines have turned out to be flexible.
Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, has said he believes both the US and Iran are sincere in seeking to seal a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has offered to act as an intermediary, and Russia could be the destination for Iran’s growing stockpile of uranium if an agreement was reached. One proposal is for Iran to suspend its enrichment programme temporarily, something it did before in 2004-05.