Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s confirmation she will run for Liberal deputy has put the members of an already shell-shocked party into a new spin.
Tuesday’s leadership contest, where the numbers are said to be tight, is a battle for the direction of the party as much as one between the two personalities.
It’s essentially a contest between the moderates and the conservatives. Sussan Ley, deputy for the past three years, carries the flag for the moderates (although she is aligned to the old Scott Morrison faction, which is led by Alex Hawke, one-time Morrison numbers man).
Her opponent, Angus Taylor, who’s been shadow treasurer, leads the conservatives.
Neither Ley nor Taylor has impressed during the last term, but that’s become beside the point.
Taylor has embraced the ambitious Price, who has defected (amid great bitterness) from the Nationals, to boost his support as part of a joint ticket.
Whether the combination will work for or against Taylor’s chances remains to be seen. There are fears in the Ley camp it may attract some undecideds, but it possibly could frighten off others.
Price was elevated spectacularly to national prominence as the most effective “no” campaigner against the voice. She is forceful and articulate, and the conservative base of theCoalitionloves her.
But leaving aside the complication that she’s a senator, her performance in the voice campaign doesn’t automatically translate into qualifications for deputy, which, if done properly, is a demanding, multi-faceted job.
The Liberal deputy needs deep roots in the party, not having just arrived in controversial circumstances. They have to do a lot of work with the party organisation, not just the parliamentary party.
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In the latter, the deputy is there in part to protect the leader’s back and to keep track of the mood of colleagues, which requires having longstanding relationships of familiarity and trust with them.
Some would argue the ideal deputy is a person who does not have their eyes on the leadership, which Price clearly has.
The deputy needs a broad grasp of policy areas, because they will be a high-profile public spokesperson for the party, and will be hit with questions on every issue that’s running.
The deputy also has to be comfortable with media across the spectrum, because that’s part of the job. Price’s natural home has been on Sky News. On Sunday, she appeared on Sky’s highly opinionated program Outsiders.
If the Liberals are to get themselves back into shape, they must seek to regain their appeal in the urban areas that went teal in 2022, and to women. Indeed, they have to tap into professional women in those places. It is unlikely Price, unless she undergoes a major political makeover, would be attractive to that constituency.
In their bid for the support of women, the Liberals need a root-and-branch debate about how to get more female candidates, but Price is already totally against quotas.
If Price becomes deputy it will be a wild ride for the party – and for its leader.
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Other names mooted as possible deputies are Dan Tehan, from Victoria, who’s been immigration spokesperson, and Queenslander Ted O’Brien, the energy spokesperson. Either would be less fraught for the party than Price. O’Brien would have the problem of being welded on to the nuclear policy, which will be at least overhauled and perhaps ditched by the Liberals.
Ley is set to have a running mate, but the name has not yet been disclosed.
Another option would be for the loser out of Ley and Taylor to become deputy. Awkward, but perhaps the cleanest way forward. Ley is used to the role; Taylor would be entitled to stay shadow treasurer and would be at the centre of things (what things are left).
In the Nationals, the leadership contest – to be decided Monday – is also a battle over identity.
The Nationals under David Littleproud held almost all their seats at the election but one-time resources minister Matt Canavan – a Barnaby Joyce supporter back in the day – says they need a new direction.
Critical to his pitch are energy and climate issues. The Nationals signed up reluctantly to net zero emissions by 2050 in the Morrison prime ministership, when Joyce was leader (although he indicated he personally didn’t favour doing so). They were dragged to the deal with great reluctance.
Canavan, who is a senator, said in his leadership pitch, “We should scrap the futile and unachievable goal of net zero emissions by 2050. Net zero makes everything more expensive and it is not helping the environment given that the US, China and India are no longer even paying lip service to it.”
Littleproud, describing the challenge as “healthy for our democracy”, is favoured to see off the Canavan bid. Regardless, it is a reminder the Nationals remain a divided party, as they have been for years.
Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra
This article was originally published inThe Conversation