Greg’s been hard at work sorting out tomorrow’s winners too. Here are the Sunday tips:
Over the next hour we’ll bring you Greg Wood’s Sandown race-by-race guide with his analysis of every runner from Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton as they duel for the trainers’ title on the final day of the jumps season.
1.20 BET365 NOVICE CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE, 2m
1st£51,440,2nd£23,650,3rd£11,830,4th£5,910,5th£2,960,6th£1,470,7th£740,8th£370.00
A £51k final – horses need to have run in a qualifier to get into the field – but only one runner with any relevance to the National Hunt title race, and Dan Skelton’sFasolis a relative outsider at 12-1. The key piece of form here definitely looks to be a novice hurdle at Southwell just 10 days ago, whenSerious Challengecame home two-and-a-quarter lengths in front ofJohn Barbour,withSorceleurandKientzheimnext over the line. All four are in opposition again today under handicap conditions, andJohn Barbour,who is 7lb better off Serious Challenge, could be the one who comes out in front this time around.
Non-runner: Big Ginge
SELECTION: JOHN BARBOUR
Fasol (Dan Skelton): more exposed that several opponents and no more than a fair each-way chance.
The boffins at respected ratings organisation Timeform have crunched the numbers for us and that 1-5 about Willie Mullins is beginning to look very generous. Yikes … Mr Mullins has more 145+ rated horses running today than Skelton and Henderson have in their yards combined!
Timeform ratings highlight the incredible strength in depth at Mullins’ disposal and just how difficult a task Dan Skelton has faced in trying to wrest the title from the champion.
After the retirement of Langer Dan, Skelton was left with seven horses with a Timeform rating of 145 or higher, the benchmark for smart form over jumps, while Etalon also reached that level when successful at Perth on Wednesday.
In contrast, Mullins has a remarkable 58 horses rated 145 or higher, providing him with a far deeper pool of horses to choose from in the most valuable end-of-season races that has enabled him to rapidly eat into the lead Skelton has spent all season accumulating and will probably prove decisive in the trainers’ championship.Tony McFadden, deputy racing editor at Timeform and Sporting Life, points out: “At Sandown today alone Mullins has 21 horses declared, 11 of whom have smart Timeform ratings. That’s more horses rated 145+ running on one card than Skelton (8) and Nicky Henderson (10) could call upon and only one fewer than Paul Nicholls has in his stable.
“It is not by luck that Mullins has been able to acquire such a deep and talented team - he is reaping the rewards for decades of success. But when the Mullins juggernaut fixes on a target there is now almost an inevitability it will crush anything in its path.”
Some star quality at Sandown. She makes regular appearance on the live blog as she loves her racing. Good morning Carol Vorderman …
The Dan Skelton Sandown squad1.20: bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (£100,000)No runners
1.50: bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase (£40,000)Riskintheground
2.25: bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2, £80,000)Boombawn
3.00: bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2, £80,000)Gwennie May Boy, Take No Chances
3.35: bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1, £175,000)Harper’s Brook, Unexpected Party
4.10: bet365 Gold Cup (£175,000)Holy Joe Smoke
4.45: bet365 Handicap Hurdle (£35,000)Mostly Sunny, Got Grey
The Willie Mulllins Sandown squad1.20: bet365 Novice Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (£100,000)No runners
1.50: bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase (£40,000)No runners
2.25: bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2, £80,000)Apreciate It, Classic Getaway, Gaelic Warrior, Gentleman De Mee3.00: bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2, £80,000)Kitzbuhel
3.35: bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1, £175,000)Energumene, Il Etait Temps
4.10: bet365 Gold Cup (£175,000)Grangeclare West, Minella Cocooner, Dancing City, High Class Hero, Lombron, Olympic Man, O’Morre Park, Spanish Harlem, Chosen Witness, Klarc Kent
4.45: bet365 Handicap Hurdle (£35,000)Bunting, King Alexander, Dr Eggman, Jump Allen
And they’re off. Welcome to the new regular Guardian racing blog. We’ll be here on every big racing Saturday throughout the year (including “Super Saturday” in July when the blogger on the day will have to be stretchered off before the last race) and what a way to start with the trainers’ title duel set to be decided on the final day of jumps racing of the season.
Dan Skelton, who has led all the way from day one, is set to be overtaken (spoiler alert) by the relentless Willie Mullins steamroller this afternoon who the bookies are currently quoting at a prohibitive 1-5. For every five quid you put on Willie to lift the trophy you get one back (plus your stake of course). But this is sport and glorious uncertainties are always possible. Dan has nine runners declared at Sandown and Willie has sent 21 over from his Irish base; Dan has amassed £3,325,540 in prize money this season so far and Willie £3,284,057. Skelton currently leads by £68,483.
Mullins, though, outnumbers Skelton 10 to one in the big betting race of the day, the bet365 Gold Cup at 4.10pm, and has twice as many runners in the concluding bet365 Handicap Hurdle at 4.45pm with four.
Twelve months ago Mullins headed to Sandown, which traditionally hosts the final day of the jumps season, with a six-figure lead over Skelton and perennial champion Paul Nicholls and never looked in serious danger of being reeled in, with victories for Minella Cocooner and Impaire Et Passe ensuring he became the first Irish-based trainer since Vincent O’Brien 70 years earlier to lift the British title.
There is a slightly different feel to the conclusion of this year’s race, with Skelton having led the way for virtually the entire campaign and he appeared home and hosed before Mullins fired in eight winners across three days at Aintree and saddled five of the first seven home in the Grand National.
Skelton, though, admits he is fearing the worst. “Everyone here is full of hope and full of the possibility, but I feel like I know what’s coming [today],” he said. “I’ve known since Aintree that Willie was going to bring a few over for the Scottish National and a few for the midweek meetings and then he was going to attack Sandown with some vigour.
“But I didn’t sit back after Aintree and say the inevitability of all this is going to subdue me and my team. We’ve come out and done everything we can, our horses have been phenomenal and I’m so proud of everybody.”
Stay with us to follow all the twists and turns of the title race but that’s not all today. We have Ascot Gold Cup hero Kyprios returning at Navan with a third victory in the most prestigious race at Royal Ascot his main target.
And we’ll have all the news and action throughout the day. The eyecatchers, the gambles and the ones that got away. Keep tuned to this blog and you won’t miss a thing.