The Greens are blaming the dramatic collapse in the Liberal vote in Queensland and targeted attacks from right-wing lobby groups for anelection resultthat cost the party’s housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather, his seat.
Adam Bandt was also given a major fright on Saturday night but is now expected to retain his seat of Melbourne as counting continues.
Bandt had high hopes ofplaying kingmaker in the next parliament, banking on Labor falling in minority to give the Greens leverage to push for action on policies such as dental into Medicare and winding back negative gearing and capital gains tax.
But a very different scenario has eventuated afterLabor significantly increased its majority, aided by winning two of the three Brisbane seats the Greens won in 2022.
Chandler-Mather lost Griffith to Labor’s Renee Coffey while Stephen Bates succumbed to Madonna Jarrett in Brisbane.
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The Greens failed to pick up Macnamara and are in a knife-edge contest in their main target seat of Wills. The ABC has called the Labor-held seat of Richmond for the government, but the Greens are not giving up hope of snatching it.
The minor party is confident about holding Ryan in Brisbane, meaning the Greens are likely to have at least two MPs in parliament. But that is well short of the ambitious nine-seat goal Bandt held at the start of the campaign.
Chandler-Mather’s defeat is a blow for the Greens, with the 33-year-old touted as a future leader after becoming the face of its rebrand as the “party for renters”. The rookie MP was a polarising figure, with Labor framing his hardline approach to housing negotiations and appearance at a pro-CFMEU rally as a turn-off for some progressive voters.
Chandler-Mather suffered a swing of just under 2%, though Greens and Labor sources agreed that was not an indication of a major backlash from voters in the south Brisbane seat.
Sources in both camps says the major reason for Chandler-Mather’s defeat was instead the collapse in the Liberal vote, which occurred across Brisbane – including in Peter Dutton’s own electorate of Dickson.
Labor sources also confirmed cases of some Liberal supporters voting for Labor as a protest against the Greens MP.
The Greens MP and candidates faced a barrage of negative ads from right-wing campaigners Advance and other conservative lobby groups such as theAustralian Institute for Progress. Advance was crowing about the Greens’ election result on Sunday afternoon, with the group’s executive director, Matthew Sheahan, congratulating supporters for helping to “stop the Greens in their tracks”.
“The Greens have been belted. And for that, I thank you,” Sheahan wrote in an email seen by Guardian Australia.
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The Greens’ poor lower house result has prompted questions about Bandt’s future as party leader.
Guardian Australia understands Bandt – who did not speak to the media on Sunday – has given no indication he intends to step down. The Greens’ leadership positions are vacated after each election.
The Greens’ environment spokeswoman,Sarah Hanson-Young, described Bandt as an “incredible leader” when asked on Sunday if his position was now “untenable”.
“He deserves a sleep-in and and breakfast in bed, and then I’m sure he’ll be back up and ready to go,” she said.
The Greens were taking heart from the Senate results, where the party was on track to retain all six seats that were up for re-election with a higher national vote. Labor could potentially hold 30 upper house seats in the next parliament, meaning it would only require the Greens’ votes to pass legislation that the Coalition opposes.
Hanson-Young said the next parliament would be the most progressive in history.
“We now have the most progressive parliament Australia has ever made, and there’s an opportunity for genuine progressive reform,” she said.