Friedrich Merz’s government has sent a clear message to anyone thinking about coming to live in Germany: don’t. Yet its message to those who want to come to Germany toworkis: we need you.
This might sound like a contradiction, but it is a revival of the thinking that drove the “guest worker” programme of the postwar boom years. Between 1955 and 1973, WestGermanysought to rebuild its economy by attracting labour, mainly from Turkey but also from Italy, Portugal and Yugoslavia. Yet it did so without giving much consideration to the human needs of the people coming.
Repeating that experiment, and the social tensions it created, at this moment would be even worse.
TheWirtschaftswunder(economic miracle) fuelled record growth and labour shortages. Now, Germany’s economy is in recession, but it desperately needs people to fulfil basic public services. Above all, it needs them to help finance its mounting pensions bill.
Given that Germany has also become ground zero for Europe’s heightened sensitivity around immigration after the backlash that followedAngela Merkel’s open-door policytowards Syrian refugees a decade ago, it’s worth paying attention to how Berlin navigates the issue. So far, Merz is providing a masterclass in what not to do.
On the one hand, the conservative chancellor is fuelling rightwing narratives that suggest migration is a threat to the country. On the other, he speaks as the voice of German business and pleads for more foreign workers.
“We need skilled immigrants as drivers of progress,”Merz saidthis month, at a ceremony to honour the contributions of Özlem Türeci and Uğur Şahin – the Turkish immigrants behind Covid vaccine pioneer BioNTech. He added that anti-immigration “ideologies” were a threat not just to Germany’s prosperity “but even worse, their narrow-mindedness threatens the future of our liberal order”.
But his government has sent exactly the kind of signal he claims to decry. Germany has continued with a new policy of rejecting asylum seekers at its borders, despite a court order calling itunlawful and a violation of EU law. The border rejections standoff comes despite a dramatic decline in refugees – up to April 2025, the figures were down bynearly halffrom the previous year.
Another leg of Merz’s anti-migration strategy is to put anend to “turbo naturalisation”,which allows newcomers the opportunity to apply for a German passport after as little as three years in select cases. The official justification is that ending fast-track citizenship will eliminate a “pull factor” and reduce illegal migration.
But obtaining citizenship and skirting migration rules have nothing to do with one another. Crossing the border as an irregular migrant can be an act of desperation, and at times opportunism. Getting a German passport requires legal residency at the very least, but also involves various hurdles and a significant amount of paperwork.
The fast-track procedure is even more discretionary and reserved for people that exhibit “exceptional integration efforts”, such as speaking German at an advanced level, consistently paying taxes and taking part in the community, for example by volunteering at local charities or sports clubs.
Eliminating that route, which only opened in June 2024, will have very little impact. Last year – when a rush to take advantage of the new process might have been expected – only about 7% of people receiving German citizenship had an accelerated application, according tofederal statistics agency Destatis.
But Merz’s moves reinforce the narrative that Germany is being overwhelmed by newcomers. The approach bolsters the far-right AfD –a close second in the polls– which hascalled for the deportationof thousands of people, including some with migrant backgrounds who hold German citizenship.
Controlling entry is legitimate, but such grandstanding policies fuel xenophobic sentiment and don’t allay the worries of anxious citizens. Also, the political dividends are limited.
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While the fevered discussion around migration has kept it as the top issue for Germans, only 38% of people ranked it as one of their three main concerns, which is four percentage points lower than in April,according to an Ipsos survey. Economic concerns such as inflation and poverty/inequality are the other top concerns.
The harder-to-face reality is that Germany could use all the help it can get. With older Germans heading into retirementby the millionsover the coming decade, the country must welcome a net400,000 newcomerseach year to keep things balanced and shoulder the rising cost of pensions.
But this isn’t the postwar era, where Germany can sign agreements with poorer countries and expect thousands to arrive. There’s global competition for qualified workers, and Germany is at a disadvantage because of its language and its reputation for being unwelcoming.
That’s a legacy from the mismanagedGastarbeiter(guest worker) programme, when Germany had neither a plan for how to integrate the people it lured for work, nor the desire to do so. It also reflects a national identity left narrow and underdeveloped due to its Nazi past.
The former footballer Mesut Özil, born in 1988 to a Turkish guest-worker family in Germany’s Ruhr Valley, never felt fully accepted. Though he played a starring role in Germany’s 2014 World Cup win, he said: “When we win, I’m German; when we lose, I’m a foreigner.”
His story shows how acceptance is out of reach for many. And it’s not isolated. Accordingto a recent studyby the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, between 2015 and 2022, 12 million people migrated to Germany. The study also said that, in the same period, more than 7 million migrants left again. The main reasons were difficulties feeling part of German society.
The next blow could be looming. According to a study byGermany’s Institute for Employment Research, a quarter of migrants in the country – around 2.6 million people – are considering packing up and leaving.
Germany’s self-imposed isolation will lead to a slow erosion of the labour force unless it is urgently addressed. Revising the narrative around migration to recast it as part of the solution would be a good starting point.
But the political class hardly looks ready. As Markus Söder, the conservative premier of Bavaria, recently told therightwing media outlet NiUS: “Of course we need immigration– unfortunately.”
Chris Reiter and Will Wilkes are the co-authors of Broken Republik: The Inside Story of Germany’s Descent Into Crisis. Both cover Germany from Berlin and Frankfurt, respectively, for Bloomberg News